Should Gordon be thinking of a July election?

This month’s monthly Ipsos-Mori survey, published in the Observer this morning, underlines how well Labour is doing following nearly seven weeks of almost uninterrupted positive media coverage. These are the figures compared with the May survey which was published first on Politicalbetting – CON 36% (-1): LAB 39% (+4): LD 15% (-3).

Like most of Mori’s major polls the survey was carried out using face to face interviews and took place over the period June 14th – 20th. This means that it ended on the day the reports of the Brown plan to bring Lib Dems into his government – so that affair probably had almost no impact on the final figures.

Mori operate their polls in a very different manner from the other pollsters and is now the only major UK firm not adjusting its samples in line with past vote or recorded party identifier. Mori says that its objectives are different. It is not trying to predict an election but to provide a “barometer” reading of current opinion. Its headline figures include only those saying that they are 100% certain to vote.

The firm is the only major pollster to have shown any Labour leads at all since May 2006. In October the party was 2% ahead a week before ICM recorded a 10% Tory lead and YouGov a 7% one.

Whatever this will be a great boost to Labour as delegates arrive in Manchester for the special conference where Gordon will be declared leader and we get the results of the deputy contest.

Two things seem to be happening which should show up in other surveys: Labour supporters are saying they are much more likely to vote and there is a very big squeeze on the Lib Dem totals.

In the next few days we should be seeing the regular June polls from ICM, Communicate and YouGov in the Guardian, Independent and Telegraph and there must be a distinct possibility that other Labour leads could be recorded. Fieldwork for ICM and Communicate is almost certainly going on this weekend and might be affected by the EU summit outcome.

All this raises the question of whether Gordon could be tempted into an early general election maybe even in July. The transition has gone far better than anybody predicted and given continued good poll results it must be very tempting to go to the country before the novelty of Brown at Number 10 starts to wear off.

So far just £540 has been matched on Betfair’s election date market where 7/1 is available on 2007. I’ve got a private wager with Peter the Punter at the same price on this happening – see Politicalbetting Recorded Wagers.

Mike Smithson