Is Number 10 taking note of the Andy Cooke analysis?
I heard this evening that Downing Street is aware that it cannot rely on the strict UNS calculation that the Tories need a 10-11% gap in the popular vote just to ensure an overall majority.
Clearly as the polls have got a bit tighter then all considerations have to be examined should Brown decide to do what he didn’t do in October 2007, call a general election when things looked favourable to his party.
For the main point about going early would be if it could increase the chances of depriving Cameron of an overall majority and given the state of the polls you need to be pretty sure of the bog-standard UNS seat calculators
Whether or not Andy’s piece suggesting that 5-6% might be enough has been influential I do not know but I am aware that PB is followed closely within Brown Central.