And 53% predict that Labour will win a fourth term

Full details are now out on the Ipsos Mori site of the poll of members of the Political Studies Association which was prepared for their annual conference this week.

Although no voting intention was asked the 283 respondents responded were questioned about what outcome they personally were hoping for at the General Election. These were the shares – LAB maj 54%: HUNG 21%: CON maj 15% so it is reasonable to assume that 54-15 would be the LAB-CON split.

The shares are remarkably similar to their predictions of what they thought would actually happen LAB maj 53% : HUNG 28%: CON maj 18%. Clearly a lot of the 54% of Labour supporters were amongst the 53% predicting a majority Labour government.

On their choice of “most capable PM” the group went 49-10 for Brown over Cameron. On “most capable” Chancellor it was Brown 68: Cable 8: Osborne 4%.

Obviously few PSA members are active on the General Election outcome betting markets where their overwhelming prediction, a Labour majority, is the least favoured by punters prepared to risk their money. The latest prices are LAB maj 2.6/1: HUNG 1.38/1: CON maj 2.3/1.

Mike Smithson