What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?
House of Commons Research paper
But how important was it going to be anyway
The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting.
The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll – CON 18%(-2): LAB 39%(+9): LD 12%(-6): SNP 24%(-2). So compared with the general election Labour are the same, the Tories are up 2,
With a sense of the media mood this is creating here Steve Richards from today’s Independent writes “A poll at the weekend, showing a significant narrowing of the Tory lead, has slightly challenged the settled mood. Another one yesterday suggesting that Labour was gaining ground in Scotland makes another nudge against the consensus that the Conservatives are marching towards a solid majority.”
The problem with this is that it’s Tory seat totals – not Labour ones – that will determine whether there’s a hung parliament and although the blues had one or two Scottish hopes the key battles are going to be in England and, increasingly, Wales as well.
And the message that the Tories might not make the progress they would have liked in Scotland was one of the key surprises in September’s massive Politics Home marginals poll.
So while the jury might be still out on that Ipsos-MORI poll this YouGov poll does not reinforce the notion that there could be a hung parliament. In fact it could be the reverse.
I know that I annoy one or two of PB’s SNP regulars whenever I write this but a no-change Labour share in Scotland with little Tory progress suggests disproportionate moves elsewhere – and it’s south of the border where the next UK general election will be decided.