Tories could be hit harder by local election u-turn than Labour says Prof Sir John Curtice
There is no polling and political expert I respect more than Professor Sir John Curtice, as a wise man once observed nobody became rich by betting against Sir John. I am happy that he shares my view that the u-turn on holding the postponed local elections represents a much bigger risk for the Tories than Labour and that means more problems for Kemi Badenoch which could see a leadership challenge. There’s also a clip of Professor Curtice talking about this.
Sir John Curtice said despite more Labour-controlled councils having been due to postpone their elections, the Conservatives “have a good reason to regret the reversal” of the delays, with four large Tory-majority county councils – Norfolk, Suffolk, East and West Sussex– now having to organise ballots.
“Although it was mostly relatively small Labour councils where only a third of the seats are up for grabs that opted for postponement, so also did three county councils under Tory control and a fourth where the Conservatives are the largest party,” he wrote.
“These are four big councils whose postponement accounts for over two in five of all the seats where the election had been postponed.
“As a result, the total number of Conservative councillors who now find themselves not having to defend their seat was slightly greater than the total number of Labour councillors.”
As well as the four county councils with Tory majorities, Conservative-controlled Harlow district council will also now have to organise local elections for May following the government’s u-turns.
Sir John warns these councils are in areas where Kemi Badenoch’s party are facing a particular threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
“Norfolk and Suffolk, East and West Sussex… these are just the kind of shire Tory councils where Reform made a breakthrough in last year’s local elections,” he writes.
“Kemi Badenoch will be concerned Nigel Farage could now register a repeat performance.”
TSE