In the absence of recent polling on the outcome of a contest as to who will  replace Starmer, this Survation polling from September is probably the best decent ball park guide. The sample is of Labour List readers who said they are Labour members (link here)

Of interest now is not the top line polling including Burnham, but the polling of who might be preferred when the contest is limited to a choice between sitting MPs only.

1st preferences only:

Rayner 13%

Streeting 13%

Miliband 9%

Lewis 8%

Burgon 6%

Jones 5%

Phillipson 5%

Others <4%

Included as 1st, 2nd or 3rd preferences:

Rayner 32%

Streeting 27%

Miliband 25%

Lewis 22%

Others <15%

Given that it’s very likely going to be a contest between Streeting and one other soft left candidate the three way polling suggests that if Rayner’s the candidate she’ll be picking up support from Miliband and Lewis supporters. Miliband would pick up support from Rayner and Lewis supporters. Lewis just won’t get sufficient nominations, the threshold for which is 20% of Labour MPs.

Other relevant recent Survation polling is the net favourability in November of current Cabinet ministers amongst the same self-declared Labour members. This shows Miliband at +69 and Streeting at +19, with Mahmood dropping sharply since September to -6. Rayner is of course excluded (see here)

None of this takes into account the events of the last few days, which makes Burnham’s nomination extremely important to whoever receives it, which is surely Rayner or Miliband, whichever is the soft left candidate.

Current best odds as next PM for those three, courtesy of Oddschecker:

Streeting 4/1

Rayner 6/1

Miliband 20/1

But for her HMRC problems, Rayner should be the betting favourite. Her main contra is the possibility that the HMRC won’t settle things before a contest takes place, and also the possibility that they won’t do so in her favour. It’s difficult to see her standing while things are up in the air. So she probably won’t pre-empt a contest until then. All of that points to Streeting forcing a contest at the earliest possible date, in order to avoid Rayner while he can, which means immediately after the May elections. In that case it’s hard to see beyond a Streeting v Miliband contest, which I think Miliband would edge.

All of the above rules Starmer out. That’s because it seems more nailed on than ever that Starmer will lose to whoever challenges him, and that there will be a challenge sooner rather than later. But if Starmer doesn’t fall on his sword early on, I can’t see his presence in a three-way contest helping Streeting, so it rather reinforces the conclusions above.

Based on all the above, Phil’s betting tip is to back Rayner with a smaller sum on Miliband, to end up quids in if either prevails, which seems to me to be the most likely outcome.

Wulfrun Phil