As Reform continues to be a suppository (sic) for Tory MPs here’s what the voters say

As Reform continues to be a suppository (sic) for Tory MPs here’s what the voters say

? How has last week’s sacking/defection played out with the public? Badenoch’s approval rating doesn’t appear to have taken a hit, in fact at -11 she reaches the highest since she first became leader and first time she has polled higher approval than Farage since then, though both are underwater.

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.149Z

The public tend to think that Badenoch handled the situation well (50%) rather than badly (13%) interestingly even Reform voters were more likely to say well (45%) than badly (18%)

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.150Z

What about how well it reflects on the two main actors? Lots of Brits take a neutral view but they are more likely (34%) to say it reflected well than badly (11 per cent) on Badenoch. 14% say the incident reflects well on Jenrick, while 37% say it reflects poorly on him.

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.151Z

For Farage on the other hand most who express a view say it doesn’t make much of a difference either way to how they view him

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.152Z

But Reform UK are still winning the battle for the right  – asked which party best represents the right of British politics the public opt for Reform 35% compared to 29% who pick the Tories.

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.153Z

On attributes for 3 party leaders from a listStarmer1. Weak (36%)2. Out of touch (33%)3. Incompetent (31%)Badenoch1. Intelligent (22%)2. Out of touch (18%)3. Professional (17%)*But* don’t know on top at 29%Farage 1. Dishonest (27%)2. Patriotic (24%)3. Divisive (23%)

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.154Z

Why do people tend to think politicians are defecting? 56% say because of self interest 24% out of principle. Reform voters are more split 52% say principle and 40% say self interest.

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.155Z

What about voting for defectors? 70% of Conservative voters say that they wouldn’t vote for an MP who defected to Reform.But in a sign taking in Tories isn’t necessarily blunting their appeal: 72% of Reform voters say they’d be happy voting for someone if they were previously a Tory MP.

Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T08:48:07.156Z

There’s plenty enough for both Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch to be happy but long term I think Nigel Farage will be the most happy.

TSE

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