Holy crap there is a new poll for Wales and it is crazy.

It puts Plaid well ahead of Reform with the Greens beating Labour.

[Thread] pic.twitter.com/PNUbHTl3eG

— Will Hayward (@WillHayCardiff) January 13, 2026

What would it mean in terms of seats?

Below is @Jaclarner's prediction.

It puts Plaid well ahead of Reform and, if correct, would allow Plaid Cymru to form a majority coalition without Labour. pic.twitter.com/vKvFPB7LtL

— Will Hayward (@WillHayCardiff) January 13, 2026

During my lifetime I have been conditioned to expect nothing but Labour landslides in Wales, so I struggle to comprehend a poll that potentially shows Labour could finish fifth in Wales but there’s now enough evidence to suggest it really could happen in the way Labour were stramashed by the SNP, areas that were an electoral oasis for Labour end up becoming electoral deserts.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, is overseeing something special, he might end up saying in May ‘so I start a revolution from my Bedwellty’, looking at the markets from Ladbrokes there’s enough evidence for me to keep on backing Plaid Cymru in the most seats market which represents a 73% return in just under four months.

I think the value might be in the Starmer & Badenoch exit markets, these are the results that would normally end tenures of Prime Ministers and Leaders of the Opposition, for all her recent improvements the Badenoch’s Tories are still doing worse than the 2024 general election which will focus the minds of Tory MPs.