If there were an election tomorrow the Tories would be banjaxed
I would caution about reading too much into MRPs this far from an election, when the original MRP was published in 2017 it was stated by the academics behind it that MRPs become less accurate the further they are away from an election and become more reliable in the six to nine months before the election.
As I noted in the previous thread, tactical voting against Reform could push them well away from a majority.
TSE