Speak to a lot of Tories, particularly the activists, and they will tell you this is the worst government in history, if they are right then surely it must worry them that the Tories are now firmly in third place in pretty much every poll.

The reason for the dire Tory position is a substantial movement of their 2024 vote to Reform, and in comparison Labour have only lost 8% of their 2024 vote to Reform in the latest YouGov poll, the only scintilla of hope for the Tories is that Labour are holding onto even fewer of their 2024 vote but that’s not much of an election winning strategy when you’re losing your support to one party in particular whilst Labour are losing votes in all directions.

If the Tories continue to lose this level of support or more over the next eighteen months to Reform or so then I think the Tory party will not give Kemi Badenoch the time to turn things around, the Tory party is facing an existential crisis as I am not sure how Badenoch or anybody else turns it around.

TSE