Why do voters who backed Labour now say they'd go elsewhere? It depends where they've gone. Those switching form Labour to Reform are the most likely to cite immigration and to Conservatives for not having kept their manifesto policies, followed by winter fuel.
Those who voted Labour & would now vote Green are motivated by fact they don't think Labour will bring about the scale of change Britain needs, that's also top reason for Lib Dem defectors, along with Winter Fuel. Means testing WFA also top reason for people going Labour to DK.
What about Tory to Reform defectors since the election? Here the uni party attack appears to be most resonant, with nearly 4 in 10 switchers saying it's because they've lost faith in the two main parties. For a third it's because Reform have become more credible since July.
Similar findings to this @steveakehurst.bsky.social research here. Does really seem like winter fuel allowance means testing, whether justified or not, has become this Government's 'original sin' in public opinion terms and cost a lot of political capital. bsky.app/profile/stev…
When the final chapter of this parliament is written I am fairly certain that the cut to the winter fuel allowance will feature heavily. As somebody who supports the cut it was badly handled and it is no surprise why people are switching the way they are, but will iy matter at the next election?