Somebody made the observation to me last night that the 75% of the polls conducted wholly in 2025 have Reform ahead of the Tories, admittedly this from admittedly small sample size. My friend observed to me that this year opinion polls will shape the narrative a lot with the likely postponement of so many local elections this year.

If this trend becomes solidified then I think it puts Kemi Badenoch under pressure to turn things around, the narrative the Tories must avoid is that the next election is a straight fight between Labour and Reform.

I feel sorry for Kemi Badenoch as these fundamental problems for the Conservative predate her leadership even if like most Brexiteers under Boris Johnson she was in a government that promised low immigration but actually delivered record levels of immigration which has allowed Reform to thrive.

PBers may wish to consider taking the 6/4 that Ladbrokes offer on Badenoch as the first leader to leave.

TSE