Picture: Wikimedia Commons

Rosie Duffield’s resignation from Labour raises the prospect of an independent, ex-Labour left-wing grouping in Parliament and perhaps even in elections.

Rosie (pictured) joins Jeremy Corbyn, who of course was re-elected in the general election as an independent. And seven former Labour MPs lost the whip after voting against the two-child cap in universal credit, so there are currently nine ex-Labour MPs in the Commons.

To regain the whip, the seven MPs would need to vote loyally with the government; but two of them aren’t, and so may not regaining it. John McDonnell and Richard Burgon followed up the first rebellion with a further rebellion on the winter fuel allowance. So already there are four MPs who are ex-Labour, and could still be independents in 2028.

Can they hold their seats at the next election?

Corbyn looks likely to hold his Islington North seat as for as long as his health allows. The other three would need to supplant Labour as the main left-wing party in their constituencies. They’ve got four years to: be seen absolutely everywhere, in local print media and social media, and at in-person events; to win support through casework; and to bring over left-wing Labour, and ex-Labour, activists for door-knocking. It would take dedication and talent.

Can they do it? Rosie Duffield holds Canterbury. Despite an 18% majority, it was Tory as recently as 2015. Even if she goes for it, and succeeds in supplanting Labour, Labour will split her vote. If the Tories recover a bit, they could take the seat. McDonnell may fancy his chances though. He has a majority of 31% in Hayes and Harlington, and he’s prominent nationally. He’ll be 77 or 78 next election, and he may not be that concerned about losing his seat, so perhaps he can afford to go for it. In Leeds East, Richard Burgon has a 29% majority, and might do it if he’s diligent. But it’s a tough challenge.

Does it matter whether the MPs decide to try and hold their seats? If they look like they can do it, the four might encourage more defectors among Labour MPs. Maybe they can build a movement contesting other seats. Left-wing independents in marginals could syphon off votes and gift a few seats to the Tories, or Reform.

But for now, at least, it’s not like Reform on the right. Reform has pulled the Tories towards nationalism. Starmer’s Labour will use these MPs as evidence that Labour is firmly in the centre. As long as it stays that way, they’ll do Labour little harm.

Off Centre

Off Centre is a former Liberal Democrat staffer and Parliamentary candidate; but is now a member of the Labour party.