This really couldn’t be tighter: the models seem to be converging on a very narrow win for Harris, with the only difference at the moment being ev-com having Harris winning North Carolina but losing Michigan, whereas the others have those two flipped. Even with that narrow EC advantage, most of the states, with most of the models, are in one camp or the other by small margins, often just a fraction of 1 per cent.

It wouldn’t take much for the EC margin to move drmatically in either direction.

James Doyle