Meanwhile JD Vance has also called for the end of all US support for Ukraine as it has "nothing to do with our national security, [and] no American interest is served by our intervention" pic.twitter.com/S6LAb7oFsL

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) July 16, 2024

I had a private discussion with a few friends before the election and I said the Starmer premiership might be derailed/impacted if the Donald Trump wins the presidential election this year, his new running mate is what I was talking about.

I expect the new Trump administration to sell out Ukraine, that is inevitable as night following day, and J.D. Vance’s comments are a pointer to that. If Putin succeeds in conquering Ukraine then he won’t stop there and with NATO likely to suffer from American isolationism under Trump then Europe will need to rearm in a way that it hasn’t since the 1930s.

More defence spending is likely to mean cuts to domestic government spending which presents problems for Starmer when it comes to things like the NHS and breaking his promises on raising taxes, when you only poll 33.7% at a general election unpopularity in the polls could see you polling in the teens.

With this month Europe rejecting the far right in France closer co-operation with the EU on defence and foreign affairs is inevitable for the UK and it is likely to extend in other matter as I expect Trump’s second term to be bad for the world economy, so membership of the single market will be discussed. American has underpinned and funded Western peace for over eighty years, if that changes it could be the black swan for Starmer and and give him a plausible excuse for why his promises were broken.

With Nigel Farage so far up Trump’s backside I expect as things play out Farage and the Reform Limited Company will become rather unpopular.

TSE