Northern Ireland [Westminster] Constituencies : Part Two (Key Seats)
I hope you all enjoyed Part One. Within this Article, we will analyse and predict which candidate and which party can become victorious in the upcoming Westminster General Election.
Belfast East : There were only three runners within the 2019 General Election. Naomi Long [APNI] fell just short of taking the seat by just over 1,000 votes. This year, there are 7 candidates. This seat is definitely one of the most exciting and intriguing seats within Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin have decided not to field a candidate hoping that there votes go to Alliance and dethrone Gavin Robinson [DUP]. Naomi Long [APNI] could be depending on the SF voters and transfers, however I do not believe this will be the case. I am predicting a very comfortable win for Naomi Long [APNI] this time around.
Final Prediction
1st : Naomi Long [APNI]
2nd : Gavin Robinson [DUP]
3rd : John Ross [TUV]
4th : Ryan Warren [UUP]
5th : Brian Smyth [GPNI]
6th : Séamus De Faoite [SDLP]
7th : Ryan North [IND]
Current Odds [Alliance]
Bet365 : 5/6
William Hill : 8/11
Belfast North : With only three candidates fielded within 2019, the chances are the SDLP vote swung to SF and resulted in a historic and momentous moment with Belfast North. The first time a Nationalist Candidate was elected the constituency. Nuala McAllister [APNI] should definitely increase her overall vote count and I am expecting the DUP vote to decrease due to there being 7 candidates. John Finucane [SF] should definitely come out victorious, however I am unsure if there is any real value.
Final Prediction
1st : John Finucane [SF]
2nd : Philip Brett [DUP]
3rd : Nuala McAllister [APNI]
4th : Carl Whyte [SDLP]
5th : David Clarke [TUV]
6th : Fiona Ferguson [PBP]
7th : Mal O’Hara [GPNI]
Current Odds [Sinn Féin]
Bet365 : 1/5
William Hill : 1/6
Fermanagh & South Tyrone : Historically, this seat has been ridiculously close for a couple of decades including only 50 votes separating SF and the UUP in 2019. Tom Elliott [UUP] is not standing this time and Diane Armstrong is a pretty unknown prospect. I believe there is fantastic value within this constituency and I am predicting Pat Cullen [SF] to win with a majority of at least 1,000 votes.
Final Prediction
1st : Pat Cullen [SF]
2nd : Diane Armstrong [UUP]
3rd : Eddie Roofe [APNI]
4th : Paul Blake [SDLP]
5th : Carl Duffy [AON]
6th : Gerry Cullen [LAB]
Current Odds [Sinn Féin]
Bet365 : 8/15
William Hill : 1/2
Lagan Valley : The whole country will be watching this constituency very closely. This was formally known as a safe Unionist seat, however that has definitely changed. Sorcha Eastwood [APNI] has been ramping up the pressure and is very active on social media. Sorcha is definitely increasing her profile. The SF vote will definitely go to Sorcha Eastwood [APNI] and I believe the SDLP voters will vote tactically. I am predicting a fairly easy win for Sorcha Eastwood [APNI].
Final Prediction
1st : Sorcha Eastwood [APNI]
2nd : Jonathan Buckley [DUP]
3rd : Robbie Butler [UUP]
4th : Simon Lee [SDLP]
5th : Lorna Smyth [TUV]
6th : Patricia Denver [GPNI]
Current Odds [Alliance]
Bet365 : 13/8
William Hill : 5/4
North Down : Alex Easton, current Unionist Independent and former DUP member has built up a high enough profile within North Down. He seems to be popular and well liked within North Down. In my honest opinion, this is the most difficult seat to predict, therefore I am predicting a very close election. I would sit on the fence for this battle, however If I was forced to select a winner, I would choose Alex Easton [IND] with relatively low confidence. For this one, I leave it up to yourself.
Final Prediction
1st : ???
2nd : ???
3rd : Tim Collins [UUP]
4th : Barry McKee [GPNI]
5th : Déirdre Vaughan [SDLP]
6th : Chris Carter [IND]
Current Odds [Alliance]
Bet365 : Evens
William Hill : 4/5
Current Odds [Independent]
Bet365 : Evens
William Hill : 10/11
South Antrim : Paul Girvan [DUP] won the previous two elections, however it might not end well this time. Robin Swann [UUP] is more likeable than Danny Kinahan [UUP] and due to the fact Robin is the former Health Minister might get him over the line. The fact that Doug Beattie [UUP] has appointed Mike Nesbitt [UUP] as the Health Minister suggests that the UUP are extremely confident of winning back their old seat. They have every right to be and I am predicting a landslide victory for Robin Swann [UUP].
Final Prediction
1st : Robin Swann [UUP]
2nd : Paul Girvan [DUP]
3rd : John Blair [APNI]
4th : Declan Kearney [SF]
5th : Roisin Lynch [SDLP]
6th : Mel Lucas [TUV]
7th : Lesley Veronica [GPNI]
8th : Siobhan McErlean [AON]
Current Odds [UUP]
Bet365 : 10/11
William Hill : 5/6
I hope you all enjoyed my predictions this year. I am very excited to see all of your prediction. Kindly post them in the comments section. Many thanks.
My NAP : NAOMI LONG [Alliance]
My NB [Next Best] : SORCHA EASTWOOD [Alliance]
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