While voters are known to exaggerate when it comes to hypotheticals, it is striking to see such a clear effect 1) on changed boundaries and 2) before campaign messaging has kicked in. (Data from the first two waves of our @JLPartnersPolls / @RestIsPolitics tracker.)

— Joe Alder (@Joe__Alder) May 24, 2024

If you think the Lib Dems are going to do better than the polls suggest then this finding from JL Partners will bring you great joy as it shows the Lib Dem vote share rising from 24% to 32% when voters are asked about tactical voting in their specific seats.

Like Joe Alder I would caution against accepting this is a gospel as hypothetical polling can be very wrong as the Lib Dems can attest.

Back in the run up to the 2015 general election Lord Ashcroft published a plethora of constituency polling. In the Lib Dem held Con marginals the headline voting intentions in those seats showed the Lib Dems on course to lose but the supplementary question asking about their specific constituency showed the Lib Dems holding on. On election day the voters in these seat preferred David Cameron and the Lib Dems were reduced to a mere 8 seats.

I know some people do not like to dabble with the spreads where the latest LD spread is 36 to 40 seats so there are other markets available such at the Betfair Exchange the Lib Dem over/under at 25.5 with the Lib Dems 1.35 to get over 25.5 seats and 2.6 to win fewer than 25.5 seats.

But my hunch is that the Lib Dems will do better in terms of seats than the headline voting intention implies but not to 2005 levels.

TSE