My % chance of this happening though is "small"

— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) September 21, 2023

Just for a bit of fun I thought it would be fun to take part in this thought experiment and I hope PBers will join in the comments section.

The only way I can see Sunak still being Prime Minister is if the events in Ukraine goes sub optimal for the West (or if Ukraine actually are on the cusp of winning and Putin goes nuclear) and/or if China decides to invade Taiwan, something which cause problems for the entire world.

If we look at the the below finding from YouGov and the only thing that the Tory party has a lead on is Defence which could help them at a general election if things go sub-optimally for the West on the geopolitical front.

But if there are no events between now and the general election and Labour fail to win the next general election then this would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal blew last season’s Premier League title.

TSE