All the signs are that the Tories are going to struggle to hold onto power at the general election. According to the John Curtice calculation they will need a overall GB vote lead of about 3% to ensure that they have got a majority. Labour by contrast need 7%.

Although the polls have edged down a fair bit since their worst moments last year the Tories are still facing a huge struggle in order to put them into a position where they can be competitive. It is very easy on current numbers to see the party losing 130 or more seats. Those who are threatened with the prospect of defeat are likely to be ultra nervous and there must be the possibility that talk of a change of leader comes in again.

What has become noticeable is how often Sunak seems to find a reason to miss PMQs something that he has yet to really master

At the moment I think he will and gone but the chances are increasingly likely that things could change.

Mike Smithson