And the walls came tumbling down
There’s some interesting analysis in The Observer
Labour is making dramatic progress in winning back pro-Brexit voters across the country as the coalition of support for the Tories built by Boris Johnson collapses, according to detailed analysis of Thursday’s local election results.
Figures from the BBC’s “key wards” data, obtained by the Observer, show support for Keir Starmer’s party was up by seven points compared with 2021 in the most heavily pro-leave wards.
The data also shows that while the Tories were down 2.5 points in the most pro-remain wards, their vote was down even more – by 5.5 points – in the most pro-leave wards.
Senior Labour figures and leading academics said the data showed that the link between voting for Brexit and voting for the Tories is weakening – further encouraging Labour strategists to believe they can take back seats across the “red wall” and are on course to win the next general election.
obert Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University, who was part of the BBC’s results and analysis team, said that in the 2021 local elections there had been a very close correlation between those who voted Tory and those who had voted to leave the EU in red wall areas.
“Voting leave was a very strong predictor of voting Tory. Now it is fading. Our statistical modelling shows it is much weaker now. We can say people are voting less in line with their Brexit preferences than they were a couple of years ago.”
Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Oxford University, who was also on the BBC results and analysis team, agreed that the connection between people voting Tory and those who voted leave had become looser, particularly since 2021.
The Tory performance in the blue wall didn’t really surprise me, a Keir Starmer led Labour Party doesn’t frighten Tory voters in the blue wall in a way that a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party did.
I am a little bit surprised about Labour picking up support in the red wall, I thought Starmer’s previous support for a second Brexit referendum would be a hindrance, but given how badly Brexit is viewed by the public it might actually be a vote winner for Starmer.
The problems for the Tories is they come up with policies to appeal the blue wall it may cost them votes in the red wall and vice versa and it could get worse for Sunak.
I thought Rishi Sunak was safe until the next general election but this week’s events have made me doubt that, the Tory performance was much worse than the Tory expectations management last weekend. I’m tempted to take the 2023 departure.
If Sunak cannot win the blue wall or the red wall then what exactly is the electoral attraction of Rishi Sunak? Tory MPs will be having these discussions between now and the next election.
TSE