There is nothing to Keir but Keir itself
Could Sunak’s net ratings soon outperform Starmer’s ratings?
I feel like the ancient mariner reminding PBers of two things in particular, firstly that Jeremy Corbyn’s legacy to Sir Keir Starmer is that Starmer would need to make 124 net gains to win a majority of 2 and secondly leader net ratings are often a better predictor of electoral outcomes than standard voting intention polls.
Recent events in Scotland has the potential to make Starmer’s task easier but this recent finding from the gold standard of leader ratings, Ipsos, should worry Starmer and anybody betting on a Labour majority at the next election.
When we’ve had shock Tory majorities in 1992 and 2015 despite the headline voting intentions being favourable to Labour John Major and David Cameron led Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband respectively on the leader/satisfaction ratings.
I suspect the satisfaction ratings on the Tory Party is what will damage Sunak, where his brand of boring and quiet competence is improving his ratings and stealing Starmer’s pièce de résistance. But a recovering economy, replete with a feel good factor, could boost the Tory satisfaction score.
Until a few weeks ago it seemed unlikely that either Labour leading in Scotland or Sunak leading Starmer in the Ipsos leader ratings before the next election would happen, but it is now possible at least one or both could happen in the next few weeks and months of polling if this poll doesn’t turn out to be an outlier.
We are likely 18 months from the next general election, for reference, the last two leaders of the opposition to take their parties into government, Tony Blair and David Cameron, had leads of 68% and 18% over John Major and Gordon Brown on the net satisfaction scores 18 months before the 1997 and 2010 elections which puts Starmer’s 2% lead into context.
TSE