Two other big differences between pre-1997 and now:
1. As Starmer repeatedly says, Lab starts from so much further back: 202 seats vs 271
2. Electoral geography is adverse for Lab: 1997 vote shares would give Lab 60 fewer seats, per @ElectCalculushttps://t.co/fhgc7aGCVD

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 15, 2023

I’ve been clear for a while that I’m not convinced a Labour majority is likely at the next election, simply because of the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer and the electoral geography being poorer for Labour at the next election than in 1997.

The other nagging doubt is about Sir Keir Starmer, longstanding readers of PB know that leader ratings that Ipsos produce are often a better predictors of general election outcomes than voting intention polls. Starmer is no Blair and that could be problematic for Labour with the Tories and Sunak doing as badly Tories and Major back in 1995.

I feel confident in my Labour largest party in a hung parliament position, if the YouGov Scotland poll turns out to be harbinger rather than an outlier then I may revise my views but Starmer needs to up his game.

TSE