A transitory blip or long term damage for the Scottish secessionist movement?
For those of us who take a keen interest in Scottish affairs this polling doesn’t come as a surprise. The toxic trans debate was likely to lead to suboptimal polling for Sturgeon, the SNP, and Scottish independence, particularly the specifics involving the Isla Bryson story.
I have a hunch this is likely to be temporary blip for the SNP as I thought the Supreme Court’s intervention last year on Scottish independence would be a temporary blip for the Unionist movement as the electorate move towards other matters. It would also indicate the UK government’s decision to enact Section 35 of the 1998 Scotland Act over the Gender Recognition Act isn’t that damaging for the Unionist vote.
Sturgeon and the SNP’s polling is pretty good for a leader and party that have been in power for over 8 years and nearly 16 years respectively so her plan to use the next election as a de facto independence referendum has solid foundations but she cannot afford another mistake like this.
TSE