The EU transition period ended on Dec 31st 2020. Since then, do you think Brexit has gone well or badly?

Well: 12% (-4 since June)
Neither well nor badly: 20% (=)
Badly: 59% (+5)https://t.co/GJgshKLMmh pic.twitter.com/vDJhSDTbHI

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 24, 2022

Over the next few weeks I’ll be looking at the reasons why I’m doubtful about Labour winning a majority (which doesn’t mean I’m not laying a Tory majority), one of the reasons is Brexit.

Looking at those findings from YouGov, these type of findings aren’t atypical about Brexit from various pollsters. 2% of Brits think Brexit has gone very well, whereas 7% of Brits say they have seen a UFO, so yes, more than 3 times the number of Brits have seen a UFO than say Brexit is going very well.

Brexit like Jim Callaghan’s Labour government isn’t working but trying to fix Brexit present huge risks for Starmer and Labour.

If he tries to change the Brexit deal then he risks losing the Red Wall he needs to win as they fear he could reverse Brexit which explains his comments yesterday.

Labour's leader rules out major renegotiation of Brexit: "Ripping up the Brexit deal would lead to years more wrangling and arguing, when we should be facing the future. I’m worried that there are senior members of Rishi Sunak’s government who don’t seem to understand that".

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) November 26, 2022

Doing nothing also presents huge risks for Starmer, as we can see with the polling Brexit as it has turned out isn’t going swimmingly so the electorate may want changes to Brexit and if Starmer doesn’t deliver on that that could lose him support and other parties may offer the electorate what they want, some may want changes to Brexit, some may want to reverse Brexit.

My expectation is that if Labour achieve a lead of 15% nationwide at the next general election that should lead to substantial gains in Scotland yet if the SNP are offering a route to joining the EU and Starmer isn’t then those gains in Scotland are at risk.

Any Labour supporter who thinks a Labour majority at the next election is a certainty should remember what usually follows hubris. Brexit is one of few things that could trip up Starmer and Labour badly.

Whilst Starmer is doing well currently in the polls it should be remembered he has joined that inglorious list of recent Leaders of Opposition who have lost a by election seat to the government, joining the likes of general election losers Jeremy Corbyn and Michael Foot.

Even though Starmer is an eminent lawyer which is usually a sign of awesomeness, I’m not sure even Solomon would have the wisdom to come up with a Brexit policy that would be popular with all parts of the electorate.

TSE