So continues what I call the 'Life of Brian Problem'.
A sizeable chunk of Con MPs and members will keep believing Johnson is the Messiah.
Another sizeable chunk will keep thinking he is not the Messiah, but a very naughty boy.
And this will go on for yearshttps://t.co/d25PW4UU6e

— Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) November 4, 2022

Light the beacons of Gondor, it turns out Boris Johnson was telling the truth last month, an event rarer than a decent Radiohead album, the BBC report that

Boris Johnson had signed up enough MPs to mount a challenge to Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership, senior Tory Sir Graham Brady has confirmed.

Mr Johnson dramatically pulled out of the race amid speculation he did not have the 100 nominations needed.

But Sir Graham, who runs Tory leadership contests, said Mr Johnson had just decided not to stand.

It would appear the only times in his lifetime that Boris Johnson has ever pulled out in time is Tory leadership contests, 2016 was understandable after Michael Gove, unlike most politicians, had the decency to stab his ally in the front and not the back but 2022 contest withdrawal is quite curious and I’m trying to work out why as this has major betting implications.

Some theories on why Boris Johnson withdrew last month

1. He realised he wouldn’t win with the members
2. He would win the members but was self aware that a significant number of Tory MPs wouldn’t accept the result making his premiership ungovernable
3. He was aware that the Privileges Committee investigation will shortly end his tenure as an MP which would mean his second stint as PM would rival the brevity of the tenure of PM Liz Truss
4. He fancies earning lots of money right now, being Prime Minister would put the kibosh on that
5. He knows the next election is doomed for the Tories and he’d rather forever be known as an unbeaten general election winner rather than tarnish that record

There could be other reasons or it could be a mixture of the above but I was wrong when last month I said Boris Johnson didn’t have the numbers.

The betting angle is that there is enough Tory MPs ready to make Boris Johnson Prime Minister, my betting strategy in the last leadership contest was to lay Boris Johnson (and in the next PM markets) because it seemed the right thing to do, something I’ve started to do with the current next Tory leader and PM markets, I’m re-evaluating that strategy based on Sir Graham Brady’s revelation.

TSE