This betting opportunity from Smarkets on a by election in Boris Johnson’s seat is intriguing. This isn’t a bet on the outcome of such a by election but whether there will be one.

This could be a winner in a variety of ways, inter alia,

• Boris Johnson willingly stands down to earn money without having to declare it to the parliamentary authorities.
• Boris Johnson willingly stands down because Sunak turns things around for the Tories and there’s no desire for a return for the Liar King.
• More likely Boris Johnson is forced out via a recall by-election following censure by the Privileges Committee as they, politically, turn Big Dog into Rinka the Dog.

I’d probably want a bit more on Yes but it is a betting market worth considering.

TSE