I'm sure the Tory position would improve somewhat under a new leader but I am always very sceptical of hypothetical polling. https://t.co/DnnZuwZhcs

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) October 22, 2022

And whoever wins they've immediately got to announce tax rises and spending cuts which are due to the actions of their own party….

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) October 22, 2022

Whilst all polls are hypothetical polls the hypothetical polls that have several other hypothetical situations added in usually turn out to be inaccurate. As Sam Freedman points out why the hypothetical polling by JL Partners will be unlikely to survive first contact with reality.

I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.

Back in October 2019 when parliament was debating Brexit ComRes asked how people would vote if Brexit didn’t happen on the 31st of October 2019.

Westminster voting intention…

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 24, 2019

Famously we didn’t leave the EU on the 31st of October 2019 and yet a month later when ComRes asked people how they intended to vote the reality was much different to the expectation.

Our latest #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the Sunday @Telegraph

CON 43% (+2)
LAB 33% (-1)
LD 13% (-)
BRX 4% (-1)
Other 7% (-)

27th – 28th Nov

(changes from Savanta ComRes/Telegraph, Nov 27th)https://t.co/92GhonpwXq pic.twitter.com/JGn3lJLO7k

— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) November 30, 2019

So please treat hypothetical polls with caution. I could cite many other examples of where hypothetical polls have turned out to be very inaccurate.

TSE