% of current Green voters who say they are very/fairly likely to consider voting instead for…

29% – Labour
20% – Lib Dem
6% – Conservative
6% – Other
5% – SNP
3% – Plaid
2% – Reform UKhttps://t.co/e9z88SD4OP pic.twitter.com/QV9mZ2mC9z

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 20, 2022

Looking at who current Green voters may vote for

One of the more interesting and complicated things in predicting the next general election is how current Green voters will vote. Labour’s hope is to reawaken the progressive alliance which is the bedrock of the Anyone But The Conservatives (ABC) alliance which allows tactical voting to damage the Conservatives, most spectacularly in 1997.

If Labour want to feel confident about winning the next general election they will need to work hard in getting the Greens to vote tactically for them as part of the progressive alliance. I hope this is something YouGov and other pollsters continue to track. If Labour cannot squeeze the Green vote to double the current level then Labour’s ambitions at the next general election may well be thwarted.

In the run up to the 2015 general election the common consensus was the Conservatives would be doomed as a stepmom in a fairytale if UKIP polled over 5% at the general election yet David Cameron managed to secure a Conservative majority with UKIP polling 12.6%, perhaps Starmer and Labour may pull a similar feat.

TSE