A Ukraine boost for Johnson in the exit date betting?
As can be seen from the betting chart there has been a sharpish move to Johnson in the market on when he will cease to be Prime Minister. Just 5 weeks ago a 2022 exit was seen as a 78% chance – now that is down to a 43% one.
Wars and international conflicts tend to help incumbents and we are seeing Macron polling better in France only weeks before the first round of voting in the Presidential election.
Could it be in the UK that a Johnson 2024 of later exit once again becomes the betting favourite.
If the outcome of the Met police examination of whether Johnson committed lockdown violations comes out this week, say, it is harder to see Tory MPs seeking to replace the PM while the conflict remains in a difficult and tricky period.