The fog of war
There have been several reports saying Conservative MP think that the conflict in Ukraine helps Boris Johnson and reduces the chances of him being ousted as Conservative leader and Prime Minister because the logic is that Conservative MPs think now is not the time to replace a Prime Minister who shamefully broke his own Covid-19 regulations, told Parliament deliberate fundamental inaccuracies, and general unfitness for high office, or even low office.
However I’m wondering that assumption by Conservative MPs might be deeply flawed. Just look at that finding from Savanta ComRes, ‘54% say Johnson WRONG kind of leader for [the Ukrainian] crisis’. If this crisis expands and/or lasts a long time and Boris Johnson meets the expectation of the public then keeping him in power might actually hasten his departure.
Those of us who have studied history closely would cite the fact we changed Prime Minister three times during both world wars. We also changed PMs during the Korean war, and we replaced Margaret Thatcher weeks before the liberation of Kuwait began, changing PMs during wartime is as British as fish & chips and insulting the French.
I’m sure the irony of Ukrainian MPs using rifles to defend democracy whilst too many Conservatives MPs are cowardly to write a letter will not be lost on most.
A long drawn out Russian crisis might be the worst outcome for Boris Johnson. He may surprise us all and rise to the occasion, especially with the low expectations that the country has of him, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think once things like Boris Johnson’s past comments from last November receive wider coverage, those ratings may tank further.
As last night’s Opinium poll shows, there’s been no real improvement in Boris Johnson’s ratings in the poll conducted during Russia’s further incursion in to Ukraine.
TSE