This is a very interesting market from William Hill and I also like the terms of this bet which makes what happens in certain circumstances. If you look at the list below which shows when each of the next country has their next election you can understand why Suga of Japan is the favourite in this market.

• Canada – September 20th 2021
• Japan – On or before 28 November 2021
• France – 10th and 24th of April
• Brazil – 2nd and the 30th October 2022
• China – 2022/23 (Not a formal general or Presidential election but the 14th National People’s Congress)
• Turkey – On or before 25 June 2023
• South Africa – Circa April/May 2024
• United Kingdom – 2nd of May 2024 (no later than with a two month extension for extenuating circumstances)
• United States of America – 5th of November 2024

I wonder if the better bet is with the Francophone leaders Justin Trudeau and Emmanuel Macron. As seen above Trudeau is the first leader to face the voters, his decision to call a snap election for this month has the potential to turn him into the Canadian Theresa May, he might take that right now given that Mrs May remained Prime Minister after her calamitous decision to call a snap election.

Macron seems to follow the tradition of the fifth republic where it feels like every new President is much worse than their immediate predecessor. I just have this hunch/feeling that his favourite status is ephemeral. (I have a thread in the next few days looking at that.)

I think the other leaders are secure for the medium term and that’s why I think depending on your viewpoint you might choose Trudeau or Macron. I’d go for Macron.

TSE