Should punters be be ruling out a second term?

There’s is little doubt that the events in Afghanistan with the Taliban having now taken over just about all the major areas is going to hurt Biden politically. The big danger now is that he will go down as the one who “lost” and the consequences of that will be blamed on him.

His strategy over the past month is in shambles particularly some of the optimistic statements he was making only a few week.

Inevitably he has been getting a roasting in the media This is from Mike Allen of Axios:

Rarely has an American president’s predictions been so wrong, so fast, so convincingly as President Biden on Afghanistan. Usually military operations and diplomacy are long; the outcomes, foggy. Not here..It’s a stunning failure for the West, and embarrassment for Biden. And it’s a traumatic turn for U.S. veterans who sacrificed in Afghanistan over the past 20 years, the 20,000+ wounded in action, and survivors of the more than 2,300 U.S. military personnel who were killed..Said Ryan Crocker, a U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan under President Obama: “I think it is already an indelible stain on his presidency.

Biden’s problem is that this is going to stick and already the Republicans are on the offensive hoping that this will undermine the president in the run-up to the 2022 Midterms.

For punters a big question is how this will impact his re-election chances. Until only a few days ago I had been suggesting that at a 26% chance he was a good bet to win WH2024. Now I think that that is wrong.

Mike Smithson