What’s the Galloway impact going to be?

Judging by the reports the Batley by-election campaign has become an increasingly nasty affair with the campaign of the Labour candidate, sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, and facing what could be seen as physical intimidation. Who has been behind this we do not know but my guess is that it might just help her.

What we don’t know is whether the UKIP/CON supporting former RESPECT and LAB MP George Galloway is going to have an impact and if so which of LAB and CON will he hurt most.

Galloway, who has been married more times than BoJo, is the only person ever who has stood for both the London Mayoralty (2016 getting 1.4% of the vote) and a list seat in Scottish Parliament (2021 getting 3.3% in 2011 and 1.5% in 2021)

In his last Westminster election, West Bromwich East at GE2019, he secured just 1.4% of the vote. My guess is that he will do better than that on Thursday but I would be surprised if his vote share exceeded 5% which is where my money is.

At this stage in the Chesham and Amersham betting a fortnight ago the Tories were rated by Betfair punters as a 94% chance. They lost with the LDs getting an 8k majority – an indication that betting markets are not always predictive.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.