As PB regulars will know I spent the last five weeks here saying that the odds available on the LDs in the by-election offered great value for money. What I cannot work out was what those on the other side of the bets were thinking when they took the risk of effectively rating the Tory chances of victory as a 95% chance.

My first bet on the LDs was at 7/1 when Smarkets first got a market up and I assumed that what was happening on the ground would force the odds in. Not so – it move pretty solidly in the opposite direction on it and Betfair effectively had the LDs at 19/1 for all the campaign until polling day itself when it moved in to about 13/1.

It would only have taken a minimal amount of research to find out that the LDs were throwing everything at the seat with hundreds of activists traveling quite long distances every day to help with the campaign.

I could not work out what was happening in the betting and at one stage I thought the Tory odds were being artificially reinforced by someone with pots of money trying to make the blues to appear favourites.

Also anybody who knows anything about UK politics is surely aware that the LDs are hugely effective in such contests when they start in second place behind the Tories. In fact there has been only one occasion in the past three decades when they have failed and that was the Henley by-election in 2008 afrer BoJo stepped down after becoming Mayor.

Anyway a big thank you.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.