As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal
The price of failure and could be very high
Time is running out for a deal to be reached between Britain and the EU and all the signs are that things are going badly. A lot rests on whether Boris can find a last ditch way forward that’s acceptable in Brussels and to his own backbench MPs. The above chart from Smarkets illustrates how punters are reacting.
The cost of a non deal could be very high as Matthew D’Ancona writes under the headline Brexit is for life not just for Christmas:
It matters a great deal that he succeeds. Failure would lead to tariffs, border checks, and nightmarish disruption at ports; the status of aviation would be unclear; new travel restrictions would apply to UK citizens entering the EU, as would mobile phone roaming charges; collaboration in healthcare, research and security would be jeopardised; and the Irish border would become a scene of confusion, commercial chaos and diplomatic tension – especially if the Internal Market Bill, back in the Commons this week, includes the so-called “safety net” clauses enabling UK ministers to breach the Northern Ireland Protocol that is a crucial element of the 2019 withdrawal agreement.
That last element highlights the difficulties Johnson could find himself with in his relations with President-elect Biden who has already made his view very clear on the position of Ireland.
My own view is in line with the betting – the favourite must be a deal but I’m not as confident as I was.