Graphics: top one is from Paddy Power, the bottom one is from Ladbrokes

Why I’m backing Boris Johnson to receive between 80% to 89.99% of the vote.

If the YouGov polling is accurate then Boris Johnson is going to win a landslide in the leadership contest, yesterday’s poll had him winning 74% to 26%.

My view is that polling for these leadership elections is a lot easier for YouGov than most of the other political polling they carry out. The electorate for leadership elections are much more homogenous and smaller than for national elections. With only two candidates there’s less need for adjustment for things like tactical voting. YouGov’s very large panel has managed to get the 2005 Tory leadership contest right, as they did more recently with Labour’s leadership elections in 2015 and 2017.

With most of the ballot papers being sent back I think the result has been already decided so it only takes a little bit of overperformance by Boris Johnson and a little bit of underperformance by Jeremy Hunt coupled with a minor sampling error for Boris Johnson to receive 80% to 89.99% of the vote which makes the 16/1 Paddy Power offer very attractive.

The only thing that might make me nervous is if Boris Johnson starts tacking away from the Jonestown Brexit at all costs wing of Tory membership. His comments over the weekend might see a few Tory members who prioritise Brexit over the Union decide Boris Johnson isn’t the man for them.

Preserving the Union must take priority over Brexit, Boris Johnson has said as he denied being hurt by a Scottish Tory campaign to keep him out of No 10 https://t.co/a5od8vLHEp

— The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) July 6, 2019

TSE