What I am carrying forward into 2009

At midnight tonight, assuming nothing untoward happens to Gord, I pick up on quite a hefty bet that I placed in the early summer at 5/6 that Brown would still be Prime Minister at the end of the year. And if by any remote chance he doesn’t there are a another couple of bets I placed at 6/1 and 5/1 at a different time that he would be out by the end of 2008. The amounts staked and the odds are such that whatever happens there’s a profit.

For one of the characteristics of political betting is that often your wagers are fairly long-term. What you have to do is judge the percentage chance of the outcome happening and decide whether the odds being offered represent good value. You can, like with the Brown survival bet, be on both sides of the outcome. When you see a good bet act quickly because others are also on the look out and bookies can change their prices very fast.

I move into 2009 with a series of other long-term wagers including:-

Jacqui Smith: I’ve got 6/4 that she won’t still be home secretary on general election day. This bet is no longer available

Party leaders: I put £200 on at 7/4 yesterday that Brown would be the first of Cameron/Clegg/Gord to go. I’ve also got a range of bets in Betfair “Party Leaders at the General Election” market that pay out whatever happens – being “all in the green” is the punter’s parlance.

General Election timing and winner I’ve got 5/1 on an election before June 30th 2009 in which the Tories end up with most seats.

David Blunkett There’s a bet at a very tasty 100/1 (now 50/1) that Blunkett will be back at his old job of home secretary a year from today

White House race 2012: I’ve got £50 on with Ladbrokes at 200/1 that Jon Huntsman will win – that’s £10,000 if it comes off. This morning the best you can get from the firm is 25/1.

Next Labour leader: I’m on Ed Miliband at 33/1 (now 12/1); John Reid at 50/1 (now 33/1) and for some reason that must have appeared good at the time Tessa Jowell at 100/1 (now 50/1)

There are a range of other bets as well but, surprising for me, I’ve nothing on the general election spread markets at the moment. I don’t see any value either way.

Have a profitable 2009!

A special appeal to PB’s “Lurkers”: Your votes in the election for PB Poster of 2008 are especially welcome. Most of the voting until now has come from regular posters themselves. Please spare a couple of minutes to give us your view as well. Voting ends at midnight.