Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference
As ever, I’d caution about reading too much into polling conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of conferences, particularly with the Lord Ashcroft national poll, which has shown more volatility than most other pollsters. However the Blues will be delighted to have another pollster showing them ahead following their conference.
Lord Ashcroft poll has 19% of 2010 LDs now saying LAB with 15% saying CON. That is seriously worrying for LAB. The gap has been much wider
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2014
A week ago LAB had a 15% lead amongst 2010 LD switchers. Today that's 4%. LAB's firewall could be crumbling
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2014
@thejimsmith 2010 LD switchers have been pretty constant across most polls for 3+ years. The closing of the gap is appalling news for EdM
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2014
If the CON leads continue & there further bad news for LAB about fewer 2010 LD switchers then I wonder whether EdM could be in trouble
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2014
Additionally Lord Ashcroft has polled on the Heywood & Middleton by-election. Labour will be delighted as with Survation, that their share of the vote is increasing and it is looking like a comfortable hold.
Heywood & Middleton by-election poll by @LordAshcroft shows a comfortable Lab hold
http://t.co/AdCr2OpuQx pic.twitter.com/eUjjL55SYn
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 6, 2014
As antifrank noted on the previous thread “As in Newark, Lord Ashcroft’s by-election poll shows both Labour and UKIP at lower levels than Survation and the Conservatives higher.” Which might be something to bear in mind when looking at the Survation Rochester & Strood poll that had UKIP 9% ahead. Hopefully Lord Ashcroft will conduct a poll in Rochester & Strood soon.
TSE
Meanwhile for those of us betting on Alistair Carmichael as next out of the cabinet/the current cabinet not lasting until the General Election.
BETTING SUSPENDED ON NEXT TO LEAVE COALITION CABINET following flood of cash for Alistair Carmichael
— Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 6, 2014