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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

September 2nd, 2014

Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen.

This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it does is bring YouGov into line with Survation.

My reading is that the oldies will save it for NO for they don’t seem to have been affected by the YES surge. YouGov had them splitting 2 to 1 to rejection and these are people who are much more likely to vote.

Even so I’ve switched my betting round onto YES because I’m hoping for more movement that way on Betfair in the next few days.

For the Clacton by-election we now have a date – October 9th, Dave’s 48th birthday. The big development there has been the Ashcroft Clacton poll which has UKIP ahead by 36% before don’t knows are reallocated and 32% when they are. This is in the same territory as Survation with the main differences being down to methodology.

Whatever it is very hard to see how UKIP can be beaten with such massive poll leads. If you want to tie up a lot of money for five weeks than you should get a reasonable return.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble