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Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

August 24th, 2014

Ladbrokes are betting that it’ll be NO

Great article on the IndyRef betting on the PoliticalBookie – the blog of Shadsy, a PB regular and the man who runs the politics desk at Ladbrokes.

Looking at the way the betting has gone and the pattern of the wagers being made Shadsy has this very revealing observation:-

“..To be totally honest, we are of the belief that a lot of the YES money is motivated more by optimism and confirmation bias rather than the hard evidence of the polls. So we’re taking it on. Opinion pollsters and bookies alike will be taking a hit on September 19th if the Scots have voted for independence…”

Shadsy and Ladbrokes are betting on a NO.

I seem to recall the firm doing a similar thing at the Bradford West by-election in 2012. They misread the large amounts of money that were being staked on Galloway in Bradford betting shops and kept him at longer than 4/1.

We all know what happened.

Mike Smithson

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