— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014
The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity.
Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are cast within the final week. If that holds here then a huge amount will be gambled overall.
A fair bit depends on the polling and while YES remains within striking the betting interest will rise.
A fortnight tomorrow I’m part of a panel at the Festival of Politics in Edinburgh talking about this and other issues. Apart from the event itself I’m really looking forward to being back in Scotland a month before its makes its momentous decision.