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Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

June 15th, 2014

And ICM finds that the vote’s dividing 42% of Scottish families

Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs, YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%.

The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap.

    A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still less enthusiastic than man but the gap is closing.

The ICM poll also looked at what the whole debate and campaign is doing to Scottish society. 38% of those polled thought that divisions would remain whatever the outcome compared with 36% who disagreed.

It also found that 42% of families are divided with 21% of those questioned saying that discussions with family and friends “had degenerated into rows.”

The betting has edged up ever so slightly to YES which is now on Betfair a 19.2% chance.

My position remains “all in green”. I’ve traded this for several months and win exactly the same whatever happens. I think it is going to be NO but it’ll be tight.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble