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Month: May 2014

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

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TELEGRAPH: UKIP vote no flash in the pan #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/L1bqPLSZeD — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 30, 2014 ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that 37 per cent of UKIP voters said that they were “certain” to support the party at the general election. Another 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to do so, while 14 per…

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Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

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Their current national figures would see losses on the same scale as the local elections Cockroach-like.  That was Tim Farron’s description of Lib Dems’ resilience in withstanding a hostile climate.  The inference was that no matter how tough things might be across the country, where they have elected representatives, their vote would hold firm enough. He had a point: Lib Dem MPs and councillors have in the past proven notoriously difficult to shift due to local campaigning, popularity and hard…

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Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

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The Ipsos-Mori issues index is out for May. As Mike has noted in the past, “The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues.” Largely it is no change for all voters.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (all voters) pic.twitter.com/0QMLVsk1ls — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2014 The issues through Kipper eyes.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (UKIP voters) pic.twitter.com/Qcvdx8LwBN — The Screaming Eagles…

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One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

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With one year to go, I thought it would be useful to track how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors one year before a General Election. I’ve been using the ratings from Ipsos-Mori that go back nearly forty years and are considered to be the Gold Standards of leader ratings.     Looking at the Leader of the Opposition net ratings, sometimes the figures speak for themselves. Only Leaders of the Opposition  with net positive ratings one year have…

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PB Euro election competition winner

PB Euro election competition winner

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Congratulations to Wulfrun_Phil to winning the competition, thanks to everyone who took part, and a big thank you to Mark Hopkins to setting up the website for the entries. Just a note, on the above picture, I’ve hidden the individual differences for each party column (so not to make the above picture unreadable) the total diff column is the sum of these individual columns. A link to the spreadsheet with everyone’s entries and rankings is available here. TSE

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

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The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…

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It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

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  As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…

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