The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

April 7th, 2014

YES remains the value bet

There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter.

When I recomended three weeks ago that YES was the value bet the price on Betfair represented an 18% chance. This morning the this moved to a 24.4% chance although it has eased a touch since.

My reading is that this will get tighter as we get close to the September date.

Next week I’m off to Edinburgh once again for a session with researchers at the Scottish Parliament. On my last visit, in February 2013, I was asked to make a prediction and said it would get very tight with a gap within 5%. Well that is almost there.

Hopefully I’ll get a better picture of opinion north of the border during my trip.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble