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Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

February 11th, 2014

Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay

It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine.

Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015.

If we do end up with a continuation of the current coalition then it is pretty clear that the only way that a deal could be done is if the Lib Dems agreed to Cameron’s referendum plan. My guess is that they would.

Mike Smithson

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