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Month: June 2013

Lord Ashcroft is on the look out for interesting ideas for polls

Lord Ashcroft is on the look out for interesting ideas for polls

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This is one I suggested this morning @LordAshcroft Polling suggestion CON-LAB marginals where the LDs had 15%+ share at GE2010 Seats like this pic.twitter.com/p8iotttWAg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 In a Tweet before the weekend the biggest commissioner of private polling in the UK, Lord Ashcroft, suggested that he was looking out for interesting ideas for political polls. One I put forward is in the Tweet reproduced above – CON-LAB battlegrounds where the LDs performed well in 2010. Given that…

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Kellner says an overall LAB majority looks less likely after YouGov reports its lowest lead of the year

Kellner says an overall LAB majority looks less likely after YouGov reports its lowest lead of the year

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Why a 5% LAB lead might not be enough Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the LAB lead down to just 5% it’s lowest point since November 2012. This has set off the talk once again that an overall majority for Ed Miliband in 2015 might be not as much in the bag as it appeared. For all though the shares in the poll should, according to the seat calculators, produce a comfortable majority there are reasons which…

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Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

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Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the 2,208 seats that were fought on May 2nd. In addition to the numbers I’ve included as an option on the chart’s dropdown the shares from the ComRes local elections poll. Compared with the overall vote totals this overstated LAB and UKIP but understated CON and the LDs. These figures differ considerably from the notional national vote extrapolations put out by the…

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Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

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And in any case, it’s too close to call right now It’s sometimes said that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them but that’s only true to a degree.  A popular and effective government will always win re-election because in such circumstances, the swing voters in the electorate will have little reason to listen to the opposition, little to gain and potentially much to lose by voting the government out no matter how good the opposition, and in all probability…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, and you’re thinking I Just Don’t Know What To Do With Myself, why not Delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) The politicians that look like peppers Labour may back early vote on UK’s EU membership David…

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The Coalition has left it too late to benefit from infrastructure

The Coalition has left it too late to benefit from infrastructure

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George Osborne in high-vis jacket pic.twitter.com/mDuo5lq5gH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2013 Henry G Manson on the week’s big political news This week Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander trumpeted a raft of infrastructure investments totalling £100bn. There are some reasons to question with the overall figure. As the Independent says ‘some of the projects, in the best tradition of political spin, had already been announced. Others, it turned out, may never be built at all. But a…

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Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris NOT the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris NOT the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

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“In his London campaigns Boris undeniably attracted voters who usually support other parties. As our research shows, this would be less likely to work in a general election. Otherwise Labour and Lib Dem supporting voters backed Boris as Mayor on a personal mandate and a personal manifesto; for many, the fact that he was a Tory was incidental. Asking them to vote for a Conservative government, inhabited by the Conservative Party and implementing Conservative policies but with Boris at the…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

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Billericay East on Basildon (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 25, Lab 15, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Current Electoral Cycle Election Results Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 4,084 61% 2,626 65% 1,502 58% Labour 737 11% 567 14% 383 15% Liberal Democrats 1,360 20% 528 13% 316 12% UKIP 308 5% 346 9% 409 16% BNP…

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