Welsh Assembly election poll Result 2007 YouGov poll Jan 2011 YouGov Poll 02/03/11 YouGov poll 30/03/11 Constituency vote Labour 32% 45% 48% 47% Conservative 22% 21% 20% 21% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% 17% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% 8% Others 8% 6% 7% 7% Regional vote Labour 30% 41% 45% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% 16% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% 8% UKIP 4% 4%…
Will Cameron’s insult help his chances? Yesterday’s PMQ encounter between David Cameron and Ed Balls has continued to reverberate and I wonder whether it could have a long-term impact. For Cameron’s comments about Balls being ” the most annoying” is a tag that looks as though it will stick but I don’t think it will harm Balls – rather the reverse in fact. He, yet again, showed himself to be the most robust attacker of the Tories and the coalition…
Will Murdoch’s paper once again say don’t vote SNP? Almost whenever you talk to someone with a close interest in Scottish politics the above front page from the Scottish Sun on the day of the last election to the Holyrood parliament in 2007 will come up. This was powerful because adapting the SNP logo into a hangman’s noose sent a clear message to voters of what it wanted to happen. As it turned the result was much tighter than many…
Will we get polling from the high turnout province? In almost all the discussions on the May 5th referendum nobody seems to be considering that part of the UK that almost always has the highest turnout in elections of all kinds – Northern Ireland. For on the same day there are the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly where, four years ago, the turnout exceeded 63%. If that’s repeated it could easily be double the overall average turnout level for…
Did he make the right call over the protests? As predicted here on PB a week ago Ed Miliband is to marry Justine, his long-term partner and mother of his two children. The announcement was followed by an assured performance at PMQs when he returned to what seems a successful tactic of asking Cameron about a detail that the PM is not able to give. But there’s some YouGov polling just out that might take the edge off today. When…
Meanwhile the SNP nose ahead in new poll Last night the fight for control of the Holyrood parliament and who should be Scotland’s First Minister had its first major set piece – a leaders’ debate broadcast by STV. You can see it in full here. This was the first time I’d really watched Scottish Labour leader, Iain Gray, in serious action and my impression was that he’s better than many non-Labour Scottish posters have suggested – but that’s not saying…
Monday April 18th- the City of London There’s to be another PB gathering at the Dirty Dicks pub across the road from Liverpool Street Station. It’ll take place on Monday April 18 starting from about 6pm. Like the previous events an area of the pub will be solely for PBers. On that day as well there’ll be another gathering a couple of hours earlier at the Guildhall gallery not so far away. There, from April 1st there’s a special exhibition…
The Sun Are the locals set to underpin the Labour leader? Yesterday morning I was accused of seeking “to manage expectation” when I speculated that Labour could be heading for a gain of 1000 or more seats in the local elections in England on May 5th. The poster, who clearly has close links with the party, said that “the last time he looked Labour was expecting gains of about 200”. Well if that is the case then Labour has a…