Polling Labour’s leadership election
July 30th, 2010| Candidate | Unions actual | Unions YouGov | Members actual | Members YouGov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruddas | 27.27% | 15% | 13.89% | 12% |
| Harman | 13,05% | 16% | 19.62% | 17% |
| Johnson | 13.65% | 26% | 24.24% | 24% |
| Benn | 14.79% | 22% | 12.81% | 24% |
| Hain | 19.92% | 15% | 14.43% | 13% |
| Blears | 11.31% | 7% | 14.97% | 9% |
YouGov in the 2007 Deputy race
The above shows the YouGov projections and the actual first round shares in the final YouGov poll before the 2007 Labour deputy race.
As can be seen the big variance was in the union section with the John Cruddas numbers. This was felt at the the time to be down to the timing on the fieldwork - taking before the only TV debate and before the main union had sent out supporting material in their publications for Cruddas.
He was the only one who was not a minister and had a lower public profile.
In the members section YouGov did pretty well with the big exception of the large overstatement of the Hillary Benn figures.
A big difference between 2007 and now is that was a contest for deputy - this is for leader. Turnout is likely to be much higher particularly within the union sections which could have a big influence.
Mike Smithson
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first?
Yes, that’s interesting. It’s important to remember that the three ‘colleges’ get a third each regardless of turnout, so a high union turnout won’t increase the weight of the union vote, but might affect what sort of candidates are preferred - if, for instance, more left-wing union members are more motivated, then the “Cruddas effect” could be weaker with higher turnout.
That said, I’m not sure the civilised campaign (or boring, depending on what you wnat) has realy stirred huge interest among non-CLP members - will there really be a large union turnout?
There is still time for a momentum shift but this one survey has, at least in the minds of punters, suggests its DM with the big mo.
The question is, how much credence do we lend to that survey in what is a complex electoral process.
if, (as seems likely) the aircraft carrier project is cancelled, Mike Hancock’s position would be untenable.
Mike Hancock slams Tory proposal to cut aircraft carriers programme
15 September 2009
Mike Hancock has reacted angrily to news that the Tory Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne has named the aircraft carrier programme has one that he could cut immediately after the General Election if the Tories come to power. Mr Osborne told reporters today: “I do not know the details of some of the major defence projects which have been the subject of speculation in the newspapers. I simply do not know what the break clauses are in the Eurofighter programme or the A400M or the aircraft carriers.” The Times website goes on to report, “Mr Osborne will know that by naming the programmes he will encourage speculation that he plans to cut them.” Mr Osborne has said that the Tories will have a snap budget immediately after a General Election to make defence cuts.
Mike said: “This is devastating news for Portsmouth. It is clear that if people vote for a Tory Government, it could severely hit the city’s economy. It will be devastating if the construction of the aircraft carriers are either stopped or the programme cut back - not just for shipbuilding generally and for the naval base but for economy as a whole in the city. Thousands of local jobs depend both directly and indirectly on the building of these ships. It is also clear from the wars and conflicts that Britain has been fighting recently that we need these aircraft carriers to support our forces in a flexible way. They are simply a necessary part of a modern warfare.”
Could he jump?
punter, please see my reply to your last at end of previous thred.
FTP http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/30/george-osborne-recovery-slow-lane
Glad to see that “there is no money left” has caught on.
4 - Spend all day looking for that? Do you realise how sad and pathetic you are?
6 - Funny isn’t it. It would never catch on they said.
On topic, that’s actually not too bad from Yougov, better than I would have thought.
I think casting my mind back to the deputy contest there was one element to the YouGov poll which indicated members’ likelihood to vote. I remember Jon Cruddas and Hazel Blears voters were most likely to ‘turnout’. I think the extra motivation of these supporters made a difference and are reflected in the higher votes of Cruddas among trade unionists and Hazel with party members.
Response to Nick Palmer from the last thread which links in with this:
157. That’s an interesting anecdote about members’ sense of unfairness of AV - particularly if many don’t fill in more than their first preference. I think there’s a very good chance David Miliband will top all 3 sections of the college in the first round - as the YouGov poll currently indicates.
If David Miliband is then overtaken in the final round (which I think likely) then will he be seen as ‘cheated’ by the voting system? The difference in the deputy contest was that Jon Cruddas won the first round of voting, Johnson then kicked in and Harman nicked it. No one candidate led all 3 sections of the college like David Miliband could so it was far less clear cut. Hmm.
I’d expect the polls to be more accurate this time, there’s a huge difference in the profiles.
6 - People tend to forget that the nice chap who loved his moment in the sun with Byrnes little joke is now being investigated by the fraud squad.
Here’s an interesting piece that shines some light on the headlong rush into legislation, and gives an insight as to why people like Gove and Lansley haver been allowed to make fools of themselves.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/30/rushed-conservative-coalition-policy
5. SSI Interesting. Take all the points but still feel Brown is most vulnerable. He is not the incumbent and if you are a voter wishing to administer a corrective kick to the Democrats what surely is the most cost effective option your local Governor’s mansion or starting all over again with a fresh Senator in the Senate putting your state last in the queue for Senate positions etc.
tim @10
But people will never forget Liam Byrne’s lovely summary of 13 years of New Labour.
This is the detail from the 2007 deputy poll.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-pol-stimes-LabourLeadershipElect-070604.pdf
How much of an effect will the union nominations for Ed Miliband have on the TU votes?
tim @10:
One thing I’ve just noticed is that the 2007 polls of members and trade unionists were NOT demographically weighted for the groups they are supposed to represent - the ones we got last night were.
Theoretically at least that should make them more accurate.
7, asod - “Do you realise how sad and pathetic you are?”
Ain’t that the PB credo???
Re: Labour leadership & unions, who is going to get the COYOTE vote?
More amusing than the numerous references in the comments to “there is no money left” are the still more numerous comments by aggrieved Labour supporters complaining about the effrontery and lack of humour that those quoting it are showing. I particularly like the comments suggesting that it was somehow ungentlemanly of David Laws to make this letter public. It is a document that says more about Liam Byrne and the last Labour government’s ethos than a thousand Smith Institute pamphlets ever could.
The reality of short-sighted Osborne economics is beginning to bite.
My employer, a private sector org, has been asked to look for reductions in its contract price for services it provides to the public sector.
It is likely these preliminary plans will lead to job losses.
Unemployment is about to shoot through 3 million, folks.
Congratulations to the fools who got swept up in the vote Tory mania in May.
14. I reckon they’ll potentially add 10-15% to his TU vote depending on how much effort the big 3 put in.
antifrank @18:
Didn’t one of the fine Labour-supporting PBers post the other day that it showed Laws was not to be trusted with a private note? Ludicrous.
10 - ‘People tend to forget that the nice chap who loved his moment in the sun with Byrnes little joke is now being investigated by the fraud squad.’
So the police have now launched an investigation into David Laws? The last I heard that was just a possibility.
19 - Government is trying to save money. This is a GOOD THING.
It’s money we don’t have.
It’s money Labour p1ssed up the wall in a decade of fiscal madness.
The inability of some Labour supporters to grasp the fundamental fact that record deficits have to be tackled is one of the enduring memories of 2010.
What the IMF said about Ireland, the economy which raced down the same stupid path as this idiotic coalition:
Ireland’s collapse “exceeds that being faced by any other advanced economy, and matches episodes of the most severe economic distress [anywhere] in post-World War Two history”
That’s because slashing public spending in a slump caused by private sector over indulgence is the height of utter folly.
Folly is a leading characteristic of Conservatism.
Prescott intelligence ‘not very substantial’ says Iraq enquiry… well that’s what I thought it said when I looked at the BBC.
19. I think the impact on private sector jobs from public spending cuts has been consistenly under-reported in the media. They are quite intertwined these days as your example clearly shows.
There will be further and more distant knock-on effects. The impact on retail from 1.3 million public sector job losses, coupled with VAT increases, is also bound to be significant on this element of the private sector.
Isn’t it funny that every friday night the thread swarms with Labour trolls like BenM.
23. Lucien Fletcher
You’d have been better saying “I don’t understand economics. A bit like my Tory masters”.
It would have been shorter.
23. The inability of some Tory supporters to grasp the fundamental fact that savage spending cuts will cause a further recession, undermine growth and reduce the ability to tackle the deficit, is one of my enduring memories of 2010.
19: ‘My employer, a private sector org, has been asked to look for reductions in its contract price for services it provides to the public sector.’
Businesses lose customers all the time - they go bust or they move on. It’s called the real world. You’d better get used to it son.
24. Agreed.
30. Stark Dawning
Businesses lose customers all the time - they go bust or they move on. It’s called the real world. You’d better get used to it son.
That looks like a bald admission that Tory economics is bound to fail.
Fair enough, I accept your argument.
LOL, I see the devotees of the magic socialist money tree are out in force tonight.
30 - You missed the Big Society announcement about state subsidised village pubs then.
29. I completely appreciate how further government spending can increase aggregate demand and improve growth in the short term. But the idea that the increase in growth improving tax revenues can make up for the deficit spending that is generating said growth, is ####ing madness.
34 I think everyone missed that imaginary announcement
27: ‘Isn’t it funny that every friday night the thread swarms with Labour trolls like BenM.’
I don’t know if they’re trolls or not, but Friday night is certainly when the Labourites are at their most violent and brooding. A while back I fled to the pub I was so frightened - wild-eyed stuff about by-elections in the 1960s and the elderly chap from Farncombe (or wherever it is) leading the charge. Scary…
24 funny how the IMF also make the first thing they insist upon being a slash and burn of public spending when they are called in.
If Andy Baddely gets funding for his training someone should cut that - the guy is the most reliable choker we have as a sporting nation since Tiger Tim retired from tennis.
29 - Had the government not been racking up debt when there was no need, savage cuts would not now be needed.
Keynesian doctrine is only followable when the bit about saving has ben followed prior to the recession.
35.
What truly is frickin’ madness is removing life support from an economy and, in best Micawberesque fashion, expecting something from the private sector to simply “turn up”.
Leaving millions to slide into unemployment to test - yet again to destruction - failed, unworkable rightwing economic policy is downright immoral.
It is as simple as that.
BenM @32
It’s called living in the real world, where money doesn’t grow on trees and unviable businesses cannot be propped up forever. This simple fact has led to every Labour government stuffing up the public balance sheet.
39 - Darren Campbell earlier pointed out that in some cases (the hurdler chap and Christian Malcolm) it was the athletes that had their funding cut in 2009 that have made the progress in 2010. In 2000 he said athletes were complacent because of Lotto funding and this has proved it.
41 Are there no prisons, are there no workhouses?
39 - I don’t know, he never had the 17% lead enjoyed by this fat lad.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewmcfbrown/100049158/david-cameron-really-needs-to-do-something-about-his-waistline/
Too many dining clubs.
Tory dining clubs put defiance on the menu
By Kiran Stacey and Jim Pickard
Published: July 30 2010 20:53 | Last updated: July 30 2010 20:53
Soon after 6pm on Monday, September 6, David Cameron may find out just how far his party is prepared to go in support of the coalition government.
Conservative backbenchers will congregate in a meeting room behind the Commons debating chamber to determine their response to that evening’s vote on a referendum bill for electoral reform.
If they decide en masse to oppose it, or more likely, vote for one or more spoiling amendments, it is likely to bring the government’s first Commons defeat. And it will be largely down to a new spirit of co-operation among the party’s influential dining clubs.
The three main groups – the 92 group, the Cornerstone group and No Turning Back – have different aims and policies, but broadly support a rightwing agenda.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06aea690-9c0f-11df-a7a4-00144feab49a.html
40. LF
But the thing you Tories deliberately miss is that Britain WAS prudent prior to the recession.
That is why debt is only NOW reaching 60-70pc of GDP.
43 damn straight LF - Mark Lewis-Francis also lost funding and got a silver.
Baddeley’s interview was a disgrace ‘I had gone over every scenario and I would win however the race was run - except I didn’t plan on that last 30 metres’
What a waste of space.
41. You mean the failed, unworkable rightwing economic policy that has left Australia in such a bad place?
42.
Yet until this one, only Tory governments had led the country into a recession!
BenM @46:
Nonsense.
The overspending began in 2002 when tax receipts were at their highest. He was borrowing money on top of tax incomes and spraying it at problems and pet projects left, right and centre thinking it’d solve them without any sort of thought.
46 BenM
Step1 Go to college
Step2 Study basic economics
Step3 THEN comment.
32: ‘That looks like a bald admission that Tory economics is bound to fail.’
Fail at what? One of your customers will no longer be buying your company’s services. That must be because:
i) Your services aren’t good enough.
ii) Your services can be bought more cheaply elsewhere.
iii) The customer can’t afford it.
What’s that got to do with the Tories?
jascow @50
“He” being “Prudence” Brown, Destroyer of Economics and Misser of Golden Rules by £430 billion.
47 - I find it hard to get that excited about MLF’s run. If that had been a Golden League meeting or a World Final none of the men would have been within 3 tenths of a medal.
53 - Gordon Brown’s prudent handling of the economy is a lesson to us all.
Marvellous.
49 - 1929?
54 true, but it is still a big turn around from the depths he had fallen to.
Here is a trivia question for you - if the french dude gets into an olympic or world final for the 100m he would be the first white guy since whom to do so?
‘We had gone over every scenario and we would win however the race was run - except we didn’t plan on that last 30 weeks before the election’
Perhaps if Cameron and Osborne’s trust funds had been removed they’d have had the extra hunger to win a majority.
Good idea woolie.
52. Stark Dawning
Yes Tory economics will fail.
Again.
All three statements are incorrect seeing as the customer still wants all the services they signed up for.
This is the reality on the ground. It is not fairytale Tory columnist delusion.
51. Exeunt Omnes
Is that your three step plan?
Hop to it.
19 I rather hope that the government is looking for savings from your employer. They should have been looking for them sooner.
28 I hope your job doesn’t involve giving people financial advice. I think we can all guess what it would be.
41 What is complete lunacy is to max out on one’s credit card, in the hope that something will turn up.
46 Thanks to the Coalition, it will peak at around that figure. If you and Ed Balls had your way, debt would be soaring past Greek levels.
58 that’s very clever tim, using different words to make the same point you have made hundreds of times before.
Bravo
49 There were recessions under Macdonald, Attlee and Wilson.
BenM @59:
If the price is having to fall, demand for the services has fallen.
No wonder Labour governments always destroy the economy and leave us with massive national debt, they and their supporters are s**t at economics.
59 I am sure there will be a revolution soon and the left wing can use their magic money tree to solve all your company’s ills.
In the meantime, the right continue to clean up the pus where Socialism has once again gone septic
46. No, they were prudent for one term, while they follow Conservative spending levels. After that, they started to borrow during the good times, even while claiming it was the poor part of the economic cycle and they would balance it later during some hypothetical better time to come.
57 - Bloody good question. Matt Shirvington never made one. I’m assuming someone made it since Wells’ hilarious slow 100m win in Moscow?
Without Google I’m probably not going to get this.
61. Sean Fear
Countries are not companies. Trite analogies about credit cards are an irrelevance.
Don’t be so hysterical - Debt was only forecast to reach a manageable 75pc of GDP.
Debt will crash through this level under this potty coalition as tax receipts crash thanks to enforced unemployment.
67 Allan Wipper Wells it is!
63. Sean Fear
Wrong (as usual).
Recessions since the war?
1973-75 (Tory); 1980-82 (Tory); 1990-92 (Tory - again!); 2008 to present (Labour)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom
9. Henry
That would suggest then that the survey that has punters apparently rushing to DM is a bit too simplistic to take at face value?
Ben, did you use to work for RBS?
68. Actually debt was forecast to be closer to 100% among independent forecasters, and that was on the basis that Labour would follow their deficit reduction plans. But quite how they would meet those targets while protecting healthcare, education, defence and policing is beyond me.
@68:
I have a feeling that PBers are going to enjoy spewing this drivel back in your curmudgeonly, illiterate face over the next few years, and I will LAUGH and LAUGH.
I have to ask you a question though: do hysterical pronouncements of doom that will make you seem like an idiot when they don’t materialize genuinely strike you as a workable political strategy?
I’m just curious as to whether you’re as strategically illiterate as you are in the realms of economics and interpersonal relations.
70 You forgot 1974/5 Labour, 1950 Labour, and 2008/9 Labour.
Do you just post rubbish here to give us amusement, like shooting fish out of a barrel?
74 - BenM = Ed Balls?
76 Check his dongle for Yvette’s fang marks
74. Martin Coxall
Remember, the Rep of Ireland is YOUR model. Their debt is being downgraded because it followed the myopic Osborne slash-and-burn path.
The end result is out there and staring at us frightened and ashen faced from across the Irish Sea.
Fascinating tim. Perhaps you would now deploy your uncanny instincts to postdict for us the winner of the World Cup, or the 2010 Grand National?
btw if I were a cheerleader for Tony “manboob” Blair I would hesitate to go mano a mano with anyone over the superfluous body fat issue. It will be many a year before we see as fine a pair of jugs bobbling over the despatch box at pmqs.
68 Yes dear, the more we borrow, the more the tooth fairy will come along and give to us.
72 Or Enron, or Drexel Burnham Lambert?
68. A manageable 75%? Do you realise the kind of changes we as a society, economy and nation need to make?
We are like an old tired american car manufacturer, that for every car we turn out, the first $5,000 in costs are the pension contributions. And we wonder why a japanese company can put one out that is cheaper, better designed and more reliable.
We need to readjust to the way power is shifting around the world, we cannot assume that we will continue to have primary access to energy and resources in the way we have, we are going to have to earn our way.
We wont be able to compete with the more dynamic and hungry economies in the rest of the world when we continue to hold such cirrhotic financial positions.
78 lol, that is simply incorrect
@78:
Yes, the Conservative Party, well know enthusiasts of joining the Euro.
Jesus wept. I can feel parts of my brain shrivelling up trying to think down to your level.
Every time I read one of BenM’s posts I become more convinced that he’s actually a spoof.
80 - Enron was a complex set up of lies and accounting sophistry.
RBS was a clusterfcuk of arrogance and voodoo economics, now which applies to BenM?
80. Sean Fear
Well, at least we CAN borrow. And borrowing is cashflow (see we have got money!)
The Private Sector, the fraying basket where all your eggs are kept, is on its knees and stuck in an almighty private sector driven rut.
My way has a far better chance of succeeding.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_World_s_Biggest_Debtor_Nations?slide=20
Do baskets fray? Can baskets get stuck in ruts? Do countries stare ashen-faced, or is BenM suggesting that Irish people are unusually longsighted?
87 - I wish you wouldn’t post things like that.
Denial over our debt and deficit is the way to go.
89 - I hope you clicked to have a look at number one as well.
89. Benm is right, debt can be managed but it is not consequence free, though it might seem so for the politicians getting us into the debt.
78. No, Ireland is in a terrible situation because of being heavily exposed to the financial sector, and having a huge debt fuelled housing bubble. Yes, fiscal tightening added some pain on top of that, but it did stop them becoming Greece.
And there’s also a big difference between fiscal retrenchment during a recession, like Ireland was forced to do, and fiscal retrenchment once you have returned to growth, as we are doing.
90 - I did.
Just imagine if we hadn’t granted the Irish independence and we were still one country.
Our combined debts would be a lot.
86 Unfortunately for you, the private sector is now growing.
You may find it fun to be a bankrupt. Just don’t expect the rest of us to join you.
86. You seem to believe the cash flow is the same as solvency. See Lehman Brothers, August 2008. Or alternatively, accounting for beginners, module 1.
93 yeah but we would all have moustaches that we twirl mencaingly and a household of Irish manservants and maids
96 - And Eoin Morgan could play for England.
BenM @86:
It really isn’t. The GDP figures for Q2 show you up to be a hysterical moron.
91 - Debt can be managed but it wasn’t being. The previous government just kept borrowing like a drunk maniac on a 5-year stag do in Vegas.
93. If Ireland was part of the UK economy, it would have been part of a monetary union far more structurally similar to its own economy. This would have meant higher interest rates to reign in their boom, rather than the lower ECB rates that inflated the bubble and increased debt.
97 sounds like a plan. We should discuss it over lunch, I’ll have Aoife and Sinead knock up a game pie and we’ll talk further on a shoot.
And do send O’Shaughnessy over with that money counting machine you promised to lend me.
For Ben.
Obama went on a big splurge (the antithesis of us evil Baby eating Tories are doing)
That’s turned out so well hasn’t it.
US economy shows signs of slowdown as consumer spending falters
• Fears that US economy is heading for double-dip recession
• Barack Obama’s congressional election hopes damaged
• White House economist Christina Romer expresses concern
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/30/us-economy-falters-consumer-spending-slows
Alright Big Spending Ben, explain this…
Double-dip feared as US economic growth loses pace
Fears that the world’s biggest economy could be heading into a double-dip recession took hold on Friday after US growth was shown to have contracted sharply in the second quarter.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7919706/Double-dip-feared-as-US-economic-growth-loses-pace.html
The world’s biggest stimulus and oh look…
99. Lucien Fletcher
The previous government correctly borrowed to maintain people in employment. That is part of the governments job in a slump, and Labour did it well.
98. Yep, the Q2 GDP figures showed that Labour was RIGHT to carry on pump priming the economy. Much of that sharp construction boost was due to public sector orders. Commercial property si still mired in slump.
But if you think past performance is an indicator of future prospects then you are even more naive than I know you to be.
Is John Harris really Wage Slave?
What can Labour do, with the Blairites still in power?
From health to education to the BBC, the coalition is putting the former PM’s plans into action. The opposition is struggling
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/30/labour-opposition-blairites-in-power
102 / 103
Proof that if the government takes its foot off the gas at this stage, the economy will slither closer to further recession.
Supports my view, not yours.
100 - So our economic position would have been worse if we had listened to Blair and joined the Euro?
Blimey
104. Keynes is turning in his grave. The previous government borrowed at the height of an economic boom and failed to balance the budget since 2001 despite benign global economic conditions, low inflation and low unemployment. It is a governments job in a boom to pay off the debt, not add to it.
BenM @104
lol no.
Never mind, just keep believing in the policies of Barry Obama, Destroyer of Economics MkII - http://bit.ly/dpYIxo
Looks like a good thread to reprise this bet offer, although I supect the chirruping Osborne fans on here don’t actually believe the forecasts.
The OBR forecasts that unemployment will peak this year.
I still have eight, count them, eight, lovely £50 bets left that it goes higher in 2011.
And lo, the chirruping ceased.
Welcome to the thread of debt denialists
BenM being the chief among them. You’ve obviously failed to take on board any lessons from the economic history of the last 300 years. When do devastating credit deflation events occur such as early 1720’s, late 1830’s, 1929 and now? When you’ve got too much debt (personal, commercial and government debt combined).
And you could have any government fiscal policy you want - expansionary, contractionary, neutral and every shade in between and it wouldn’t change the ultimate devastating credit deflation path that we’re set upon right now. Until the world builds a monetary based system that doesn’t permit a huge debt tower, then we will periodically face the final outcome that all Austrian economists know about so well, credit deflation. It follows as surely as day follows night. But such a new improved monetary system can only come about once the old failed central bank model inspired central planning of the cost of money has been seen to fail completely, and we finally as a society learn the lessons of what causes devastating economic depressions.
104. “if you think past performance is an indicator of future prospects then you are even more naive than I know you to be.”
Why did nobody tell Gordo that the past performance of tax receipts that he was happily pissing up the wall was no indicator of future performance and that one day we would have his fiscal meltdown?
What a numpty!
101 - Eoin Morgan is God.
Maiden test century achieved with a six.
Eat your heart Bradman.
113 - That should be “Eat your heart out Bradman”
110 lol. Odds being offered are not worth it, as you well know.
113 Yes, although he and Colin Wood batted poorly this morning, England got beached and the Pakistani bowlers got their tails up.
Morgan will do for me though, much better thab the stuffed peacock at 4
106 - Nonsense Ben, read and understand that the GDP was revised down with the stimulus flowing hard. The stimulus didn’t deliver. But you want to throw in GDP bounce figures? Labour (2010) - 1.1%, Conservative (1983) - 1.4%.
Oh and you forget:
1945 Govt - Fiscal crisis
1965 Govt - Sterling crisis
1974 Govt - Govt borrowing crisis/IMF loan
2005 Govt - Govt borrowing crisis
One thing Labour have never understood is economics.
109. Jascow
Under which useless Republican president (actually he was the worst ever US president and the Republicans have provided a few terrible ones - Bush I, Reagan, Nixon etc) did the credit crunch start?
Please remind us all.
103 - interesting to note that the US is about another $3.5 trillion in debt after the stimulus has been spent by Obama, and they’re back precisely where they started, staring deflation firmly in the face. And then Krugman, and all the other Keynsian clowns such as BenM call for even more stimulus, when the first stimulus has so obviously failed. Would you expect to pass an exam if you failed the first time round, and then proceeded to do precisely the same preparation the second time around. I call that insanity, but hey ho the public won’t be so easily fooled 2nd time around, when exactly the same problems as 2007/8 manifest themselves, only much worse this time.
116 - Bell in, Pietersen out.
He’s not been the same since he was stripped of the Presidency.
BenM @118
Trying to have your cake and eat it I see. Who caused the credit crunch, was it the “indulgent private sector” or the government?
I’m convinced you’re a spoof poster.
120 - Presidency = Captaincy.
118.BenM.Was he a friend of Blair’s?
120 yes, agreed. Jimmy was the magic man again today, Finn looks good, but I have concerns over PollyAnna - far too loose early on - he is a much much better bowler when he bowls with control, he is not a pace merchant.
117. SthLondon Nick
And yet despite all the attempts at creating diversions, the fact remains ALL recessions since the war up until the credit crunch had afflicted TORY governments.
And the worst Tory government of the lot, the Thatcher version, racked unemployment up to an unmatched 3 million plus.
Tories are the real dunces when it comes to economics.
124 and Kieswetter for Prior
110 - Tim, rarely do I agree with you, but enjoy collecting the money in 2011. The OBR, the Treasury economic forecasting model and most independent economic forecasters will all be shown to be complete clowns, just like they were in 2008, when their Keynsian / Monetarist models yet again will be shown to be what they are - nonsense. Maybe I should ask under the Freedom of Information act how many hours have been spent by the Treasury in developing their economic forecasting model? Yet another staggering waste of taxpayers money.
124 - Broad’s batting has also gone to pot.
At least Sidearse isn’t anywhere near the test side.
@110/115:
The OBR’s forecasts is that unemployment will fall *over each year of this Parliament*.
Do you think unemployment will be higher in the second year of this Parliament than the first, tim?
115 - evens that Osborne and the OBR are right on unemployment seems fair.
The fact that you give them a less than evens chance is telling.
128 His sister is still fit as though
Shaazam for PollyAnna unless he improves
131 - I need to be introduced to his sister.
Also how do we solve a problem like Alastair Cook.
130 what is telling about it? There’s a good chance it will peak in 2011 as far as I am concerned, and I don;t really care - personally I think unemployment is a price worth paying.
Ben unfortunately looks backwards not forwards. Recessions aren’t rare, there is likely to be another in next 6-10 years and its being prepared for that which is important because if debt and deficits aren’t addressed we will not be ready to face it and where will the stimulus be funded from then?
UK went into the 90’s recession with a current account surplus and national debt below 30% and as a result, despite the stupidity of ERM membership delaying the recovery and worsening the recession, was recovering well by end of decade and debt was in low 40%s when Labour took over.
Gordon Brown, in his Prudent Phase, kept the fiscal lid on and paid down debt and moved towards surplus so that when the dot.com crash and associated recession hit most of the world he was able to loosen policy and increase spending. BoE cut interest rates, helped by Brown dampening housing led inflation in mid term budget. UK didn’t suffer the recession that affected so many.
Unfortunately once the purse strings had been loosened, perhaps because Gordon was looking to taking over the leadership before end of second term and then in expectation ongoing, the tightening that should have followed as the economy boomed didn’t happen so that UK went into the 2008 recession worst placed than it should have been, with debt back to where it was in 97 and growing deficits (something shared by other developed economies as well, not unique to UK but the fact others were as imprudent and short sighted doesn’t pardon Gordon).
Now we need to think about the recession of 2018 (+/- 2 years) - do we really want to go into that one with national debt towards 100% of GDP and a deficit of 3-4% as Ed Balls seems to think is acceptable?
Here’s where I have to do my usual about-face and switch sides in the argument. Obama’s stimulus so far has not been a failure, it has resulted in strong growth figures, even despite the slowdown. It is also worth bearing in mind that the United States has far more capacity to borrow than us, as being the world’s reserve currency, T-Bills are still the safety bond of choice. Much of the US stimulus has also been spent on infrastructure spending, which improves supply-side growth long-term - unlike the ridiculous VAT cut here.
However, that being said, the US does need to improve its long term debt position. However, revoking the stimulus would be a poor choice for this, as far greater savings could be found by ending the Bush tax cuts, wrapping up involvement in two extremely expensive wars, increasing revenue through a pollution tax, and addressing the solvency of medicare and social security.
132 I would do everything to that member of the PollyAnna family.
Cook will hit form in this series, I am confident of it.
129 - the OBR forecasts a 2010 peak.
Fancy a bet?
117 - agreed, and exactly the same can be said about the coalition, albeit for different reasons.
1974 was at the end of the Heath government though, and 1965 - I think you’ll find that Reggie Maudling didn’t exactly have too many good words to say to Jim Callaghan on handing over in October 1964!
Being incredibly charitable to Labour, they have been quite unlucky in that a lot of their periods in government have happened when the social mood has been trending downwards (1966-1982 and 2000 until I think around 2016). Hence one of the reasons why this year’s GE was one of, if not the best GE ever to lose.
Let us suppose for a second that BenM is right (bear with me). We should continue increased public spending; that is the right and proper thing to do as advocated by the Labour Party…
So let’s look at today’s welfare reforms announcement
Chris Grayling has said that government is at the “start of a journey” to reform the welfare system and that the country “can’t afford not to”. Earlier Lord Freud said said that people must “feel it’s always worth working”, suggesting a gain of 40p in every pound. The comments follow work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith’s launch of a consultation paper to end “worklessness.” Labour has hit back with Rosie Winterton questioning “has Iain Duncan Smith got agreement with the Treasury to make those initial investments?”
So, the coherent Labour Party line is that spending should increase, except under no circumstances should we spend more money against future savings.
Genius!!
@129:
When you offer odds on what the OBR actually forecasted, rather than some imagined prediction, maybe people will take the bait.
Though frankly, tim, you do have a reputation for this kind of slipperiness when it comes to wagers, it’s not surprising there’s not a stampede to take you up on the offer.
118. What exactly was wrong with Bush Snr as a President? As for Nixon, despite the appalling scandal that brought him down, the world is a far safer place today thanks to his rapproachment with China.
129. Unemployment could peak in one month in 2011, but the average for the year could still be lower than 2010.
Plus the difference between the ILO prdiction for 2010 and 2011 is only 0.1%, well within the margin of error of the survey.
141 - What was wrong with Bush Snr?
He declared war on Iraq with proper UN backing.
Blairites hate that.
135 - so you’re prepared to tell the 18% or so unemployed on the US measure of U6 unemployment (broadly unemployment as the man on the street would see it) that the stimulus has been a success? And you’re prepared to tell those in the housing sector that it’s been a success, when home prices are beginning to drop again? And when the leading economic indicator (LEI) is pointing towards another 2007/8? Funny old world.
140. Maybe tim can come up with some odds for this one that someone will take him up on?
Odds that Gove is still a cabinet minister at the next GE?
Scott P @145
In before tim says “Gove is one of Dave’s mates”
There is one overriding boon about the England cricket team.
The Baggy Green’s lost to Pakistan.
Hell, yeah.
140 - The OBR predicted.
Unemployment to peak at 8.1% this year
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506787&in_page_id=2#ixzz0vCjyPNxX
It’s really not a difficult bet, Richard Nabavi took it.
145 - Dave’s Mate, it’s highly likely he’ll be there, as we discussed previously, his haplessness lingers however.
147 Cook to be on 200 by the time the fry up is on the table Boxing Day morning
146 - You are learning.
134. Ted,
Sensible post. Much appreciated.
I agree that we’re likely to slide into another recession soon. And that we’ll be less able to meet the challenges of the next one due to our position in this one.
But we have to make a choice, because, as much as notme rightly says debt isn’t consequence free, neither is chucking an extra million people on the dole.
The Tory herd here callously ignores the social catastrophe their Party is about to unleash. It’s bizarre really. The neo-liberal economics they promote is a pointed, documented failure. Nowhere on earth has it worked.
147/149 - The Aussie bowling attack (Steve Smith apart) doesn’t look threatening.
BenM
Your company faces a choice: it either sells its services to overseas governments or the private sector, reduces costs to reflect new revenues, or fails. It isn’t your customers’ job to justify your business model, its yours. That’s true in good times or bad, irrespective of government. Our economy is fundamentally imbalanced, a £155 billion annual deficit is testament to that. Your argument is ostensibly about timing - when to cut. If your company cannot adapt, and operates in that part of the economy that represents the imbalance, then when the cuts come is irrelevant, your company will (and should) fail as part of the rebalancing process. If your job is under threat then that goes some way to explaining your belligerence, but don’t be under any illusions, the deficit is totally unsustainable, you say long term, others say short. It doesn’t matter, either way it’s going.
Do you mind telling us what your company does?
149 - Not convinced about Cook.
Mr Morgan, though, will be slapping them about left, right and centre, so he will.
To be sure.
Etc
Has no-one pointed out to tim that the ‘hapless’ Gove of his imagination is the same chap that he was spunking screeds of praise over before the election?
152 Smith????? No danger from him, he is like an unskilled Wayne Shaun.
The danger will be from MJ if he hits his straps. If not, it’s the Bruce Reid attack all over again
138 - hunchman. The one I would be most charitable about is the 1930 recession which arrived following the Wall Street Crash. To be fair to Baldwin he couldn’t have caused that. However he is - of course - loathed by Labour because rather than splurge he steered a course that saw the UK economy recover quite rapidly. The trouble is that the IMF crisis could have easily been avoided if the 1974 government had shown some courage.
There is - of course - the other simple fact that no Labour government has left office with unemployment lower than when it came into office. But of course they care… It just beggars belief that anyone can believe that 12% borrowing to produce 1% is any kind of good return. Frankly if they do, I have just discovered a new way for banks to make a ton of money: we’ll charge you 12% of your income to run your account and pay you 1% interest.
144. I have to say your using rather absurd logic here. Of course the US economy isn’t entirely fixed again - less than two years ago we had the greatest financial crisis the world has ever seen. Unemployment, while appallingly high, is much better than it would have been had the wave of dislocation that passed through the economy not been stopped. The housing market is inevitably going to decline, but it will be much more of a soft landing rather than the outright collapse we were facing.
Of course, this is a betting site, so the best way to settle bolshy points of view is with a bet. I’ll bet £50 the US economy is larger in Q2 next year than it was in Q2 of 2010, at evens.
149 - hope you’re right, can’t wait to be at the MCG with tickets for the 1st 4 days.
See the following link: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/gdp-3-years-of-massive-downward.html for why the US is headed into another recession (depression).
155 - I have, I’m very surprised at how incompetent he has been.
Bruce Reid? Isn’t he the bowler that Allan Lamb smacked for 22 in the last over to win an ODI ?
159 Damn straight I am right - I’ll be sitting up with the Arran Founders Reserve watching the Cookmeister slap the Aussies upside their heads
151. “The neo-liberal economics they promote is a pointed, documented failure.”
Define what you mean by neoliberal economics to substantiate that statement.
161 that’s the puppy - skinny left arm ‘quick’ - worst strike bowler the Aussies have had in a long long time (perhaps with the exception of Simon O’Donnell)
161 - Yes on the 86/87 Tour.
In the 1990/91 tour Bruce Reid was the dogs dangly bits and made England look like chumps.
In one test England went from 146/3 to 150 all out. Thanks largely due to a gritty single from Devon Malcolm.
155.AndrewG. Hopeless tim doesn’t know what hapless means.
On topic: It does look like there is still a presumption towards Milliband Snr for the leadership. I do wonder if the polls are reflecting a “head” statement rather than a “heart” vote. I also remember the comment of one sexing up spin doctor, that EdM would make Labour feel good about loosing. Considering their reaction to everything is that the world was perfect the day they left No.10 I do wonder if people are perhaps answering rationally but may vote more emotionally.
As to wether or not there is PM material in any of them, I do remember harbouring quite strong doubts about Cameron for the first couple of years. It was the 2007 period onwards that finally convinced me.
165 yeah, but we were batting ferrets from 5 down on that tour
165
Found it on You Tube.. enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5LD1AZqRuo
As someone who grew up watching the England collapses of the late 80’s and most of the 90’s, can I say todays collapse brought back some memories.
170 Jimmy’s no shot was a classic for the scrapbook
tim - good to see you concentrating for once on matters arising in the future - always welcome on a wagering site.
We do need to do more work on the bet/prediction distinction though.
ps that tony blair, eh? Don’t get many of those to the pound. Phwoarrr!
171 - It was special.
157 - very interesting how the Great Depression played out in the UK. You’re right that Baldwin wasn’t at fault, or for that matter Ramsay McDonald. Like all depressions, it had its roots in the completely failed monetary policies of permitting a build up of debt as a % of GDP. Just as Cameron isn’t responsible for the coming meltdown, but that won’t stop Labour from claiming him responsible. The great irony will be that Cameron, if he had a proper grasp of economics would have stood aside at any price of forming a government, and would have let Labour and the LibDems get on with it, but the lust for power too early proved too much of a (fatal) temptation.
158 - pondering whether to take you on over that Socrates. I’m not usually a betting man. I’m confident that the US stockmarket will be much lower come this time next year, but a bet on US GDP figures that are subject to constant revision and manipulation is asking for trouble - what would happen if the 1st cut of figures showed the US economy growing, and then revisions showed that it actually contracted? Think it would be much safer to have a wager on something unarguable - eg level of the Dow being below 8,500 by 30th June next year? Would you fancy £50 on that?
165 - and I recall David Gower was left helplessly on about 18 not out at the other end. No wonder he felt like a ‘Tiger Moth’ relief moment after something like that!!
173 Not the sheer delight of Prior being run out though - that really was special
174. I’m afraid stockmarkets are too volatile for me to like to bet on them on a medium-time scale. How about we go for the level of GDP, settle it on the first cut, and agree to resettle if necessary on the third cut? Subsequent revisions are ignored.
175 - That was the 5th Match.
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/63547.html
I was thinking of the 2nd test
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/63544.html
169 - Thanks for that. Enjoyed muchly
174 - hunchman. I’m not one who expects a meltdown. It is going to be very bumpy for quite a while (it would have been for anyone). Part of me does agree with the thought Cameron should have let Labour have to actually clear up its mess for once. However, it could also be seen as dereliction of duty not to rescue the country from Labour’s profligacy and inept economic management.
171 - funniest no shot I’ve ever seen was Adam Parore bowled middle pole in the 1999 England NZ series. Fair enough off pole coming out of the ground, but middle stump - that was hilarious. Apart from that, and Alex Tudor’s 99 not out that was one of the most miserable series for English cricket that I’ve ever seen, ranking alongside the 1989 and 1993 Ashes campaigns for sheer frustration.
171/181 - Ahem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6gPMq9qOTM
For sheer enjoyment, little else can measure up to Punter being run out by
1)Gary Pratt and 2) Freddie Flintoff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wSIzbSQ_Kw
http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/category/sports/watch/v18978966Y2kDbrwy
Exeunt Omnes @169
Is that Bruce Reid bowling, or an early outing for Steve Coogan’s Paul Calf character?
While all the cricket guys are on, has anyone had a look at the Ashes betting?
England at 2/1 for the series on the Draw no Bet market looked the best angle, but I’m behind the curve on cricket.
The Screaming Eagles @93:
Actually, you didn’t. You gave them dominion status as the Free State. They took independence vy changing the constitution in 1937.
185
Dangerous stuff betting on Cricket Down under.. For starters, they use a different cricket ball..
185 - I’m backing England to win 2-1.
However some of the reports out there say, the ACB are pressuring the groundsmen to produce pitches that last for 5 days.
And those pitches generally lead to draws.
187 - And it spins in the opposite direction.
186 - Would Scotland take Dominion Status today?
186. I blame George III.
189 - Aussies are going down the plughole whatever direction this year.
**touches wood**
185/188 - Tim, It should be noted that prior to my sell of Labour at £100 per seat earlier on this year my biggest ever (spread) betting losses has stemmed from Ashes cricket.
I backed England to win the 2001 and 2006/07 series. They lost those series 4-1 and 5 nil respectively.
182 -
178 - thanks for that. Nearly 20 years ago, but a strange old series that one!
177 - ok Socrates, I have to put my money where my mouth is for once, to be credible, given everything I’ve been saying on here since about November 2007. So £50 deposited each - and £100 quid collected by the winner. Can somebody tell me the procedures for who I have to deposit the £50 with? (have read a while back but can’t remember) - and I will happily oblige.
194 - I should add, £50 back to both of us, if the figures show 0% US GDP growth rounded to the nearest 0.1% from 2010 Q3 to 2011 Q2.
194 - The 1994/1995 Ashes series was a weird one too.
Martin McCague instead of Angus Fraser.
Atherton declaring and leaving Hick 98 not out was one of those inspired decisions.
On the Coalition:
“A ComRes survey for the BBC this week found that 57 per cent of the public believe that cuts of 25 per cent – Mr Osborne’s minimum demand for most government departments – would be too severe. The same proportion (57 per cent) of Lib Dem voters agree, compared to only 46 per cent of Tory supporters.”
I love some of the other bits from the Independent at:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-fear-guilt-by-association-with-osborne-2039129.html
If you have unprotected sex with someone who has syphilis the chances are that you’ll catch a dose; I guess that pretty much sums up the Liberal Democrats position in the Coalition Government.
Perhaps I’m becoming more disappointed that the Lib Dems left me for a more handsome partner - despite the fact that I warned my LibDem MP about the likelihood of infection. He is one of the more disillusioned of their backbenchers.
193 - Ouch.
I hesitate to ask, but what did you sell Labour seats at?
198 - I sold Labour at 210.
194. Ok, so just to confirm terms: I am betting that the level of US GDP is larger in Q2 2011 than it is in Q2 2010. The loser will pay the winner £50 upon the first release of GDP figures, with it being settled permanently by the second revision.
If you can confirm a final agreement, I’ll email Peter.
200. And Mike shall be the arbiter in any disputes.
194. Typically bets on here we don’t deposit the money as we trust the other will pay out. We can agree that our IP address will be released by Mike if either welches.
199 - F+ck.
196 - ‘Martin McCague instead of Angus Fraser’
Oh yes. I remember McCague getting so walloped that Atherton replaced him with Graham Gooch. Although didn’t Fraser then join the squad as an emergency call-up?
203 - My decision to sell the Lib Dems at the height of the Cleggasm mitigated that. But that was at £50 per seat.
196 - the one bright spot of that series being Adelaide with Defreitas’ best ever knock for England of 88(?), including 22 off one over. Oh they joys of the Raymond Illingworth era. Would love to have been a fly on the wall during the Devon Malcolm debacle. Or equally, when he captained Yorkshire as a 50 year old during the fractious 1983 season.
204 - He was replaced by Angus Fraser after he suffered a leg injury
200 / 201 / 202 - that’s fine Socrates. May the best man win.
206 - I felt sorry for Illy, I think the role came 10 years to late for him.
Athers spoke very approvingly of him in his autobiography.
The squad was comprised by having Gatting in that team.
Daffy’s assault was great.
209 - very fair point, Illingworth may have worked much better in the 1980’s, although that is questionable given the shambolic TCCB structure in place at the time. I always used to love how Illingworth always referred to Michael Gatting - very much one of the old school. Gatt nearly getting run out getting his one hundred on the 94/95 tour was also very amusing. Sad how Gooch faded on that tour as well.
Speaking of Gooch, I remember well I think his last match on TV - the Essex Lancs 1997 Natwest final where Lancs struggled to about 180, and then Essex were routed in reply with Glenn Chapple taking about 6 wickets, think Gooch was about 7th or 8th man out by which time Essex were completely in ruins.
206 - ‘…the one bright spot of that series being Adelaide…’
And, of course, England were on the verge of winning the previous Test (Sydney?) when bad light intervened. Could have been 2 all with 1 to play.
210 - Graham Gooch was an after dinner speaker at an event I went to a few years ago. He said that as a cricketer, his talent went overnight. Sadly for him and us, it went during an Ashes series.
In the 1993 series he was the best England Batsman, and in 1994 summer again he was Englands best batsman.
The other thing he said that stuck in the memory, talking about Warne’s ball of the century to Gatting.
“It would never have gotten past Gatt if it has been a hamburger”
Tim will be shocked to find out that David Cameron appears to have taken advice from the Professor of Sociology at the LSE:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/30/asbo-icon-new-labour-negligence
“Were I George Osborne…, I would subsidise pubs rather than banks”.
210 - The TCCB in the 80’s was great.
Prior to the 1989 Ashes series, the selectors had decided to appoint Gatting as Captain.
Then someone called Ossie Wheatley vetoed it and chose Gower instead.
Not one of the England team had ever heard or met him, and assumed it was a joke.
All because Wheatley thought Gatting had [MODERATED] a barmaid.
211 - yep, think they had the Aussies 7 down in the 2nd innings with Warne blocking out at the end.
212 - think Gooch is a tad unfair on himself there. He still did very well for Essex in the twilight of his career, not as though that was a touch on the rough and tumble of international cricket at that time.
Hope that there are another half dozen of Aamer’s to come on to the scene in international cricket, for too long now (past 5-10 years) the batsmen have had it too easy, not as though I want loads of test matches ending in 3 days with the ball completely on top, just as high scoring draws have become too common an occurrence.
213 - Impolite of the author to point out that he’d find it difficult living with himself as George.
Interesting nugget for discussion.
The age of the property ladder, roughly the same as the age of financial excess, played havoc with working-class communities. It gentrified Britain and dispersed its poor.
214 - that 4 test match captains summer against the West Indies in 1988 was great, including the one match that Chris Cowdrey played as captain (no nepotism there!). Or the 30 odd players that played in the 1989 Ashes series. Or the dealing over the Shakoor Rana incident on the 87/88 Pakistan tour - those were the days
216 - it hasn’t just played havoc with working class communities. The middle classes will find it will have played havoc with them as well, when their properties are worth a tenth of today’s prices when the economic meltdown has washed through and left so many of them worthless. That I think will be one of the greatest ironies of the coalition if it lasts until 2015 (v. doubtful IMHO) - it will have achieved much greater equality, but regrettably it will be because many people will be left with nothing.
215 - Matches like the Colombo Test makes me want to throw my head back and dribble. Pitches like that are killing cricket.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/8871374.stm
217 - I used to love those Headingley tests, when we used to pick “specialists” like Neil Mallender.
220 - Of course doing the same and picking Aussie roofer Pattinson (about 30 First Class wickets at 40) rather than YORKSHIRE’S Matthew Hoggard (248 Test wickets at 30) was pretty much the last straw for Michael Vaughan.
24. Total horsesh!t£
Ireland is in the mess it is because Fianna Fail gave take breaks to it’s property developer paymasters and gave nods and winks to thE financial sector to fund them. The Celtic Tiger was already over before the banking crisis because the economy had become uncompetitive because of those policies. Had Ireland stuck to the policies of the mid 90’s Rainbow Coalition and kept a balanced budget it would be a lot better off today.
Go away and learn!!
221 - WTF were they thinking.
What was our worst one cap wonder of the last 30 years?
223 - Gavin Hamilton
224 - We have a winner.
On the memorable tour to South Africa when in the first test we were reduced to 2 for 4.
Young Cricket fans, you don’t know how lucky you are growing up with a decent England Test side.
The 1990s were a stunning period of shiteness.
Much as I liked Gus Fraser for his effort, when he’s your best bowler and Mike Atherton is your best batter, you’re a fcking sh1tty team.
The Screaming Eagles @190:
While Dominion status granted much less independence in the 1920s than today, I’m in favour of any moves which increase Scottish autonomy. It’s some time since we’ve had polling on which powers Scots want to see repatriated. It’ll be interesting to see whether the changed political circumstances in London have increased the areas of autonomy that most Scots want to see restored.
226 - Let’s not forget when Craig White was hailed as the new Ian Botham.
I think Gus Fraser would have been so much better but for that hip injury that kept him out for 2 years.
I’ll never forget Martin Johnson’s description of him.
He runs into bowl like someone has clipped his braces to the sightscreen.
227 - We’ll find out next May.
223 - Mark Lathwell would be one of my nominations - although he may have played more than one test? In Atherton’s autobiography, apparently on walking out to bat with Athers, Athers said to Lathwell, they’re (the crowd) rooting for you to do well, to which Lathwell responded, they won’t be cheering me when I get out
230 - I think Lathwell was a 2 test wonder.
The Screaming Eagles @229
Unless the LDs or Labour in Scotland take a different view by then, then we’ll find out little.
It’s always seemed a little odd that no political party here is advocating a constitutional position which actually chimes with what polling has suggested is what the majority of Scots actually want!
230 - For some reason, we bumped Gooch into the middle order to make way for Lathwell, wtf was that all about.
228 - don’t knock Chalky too much. I remember watching him play a great knock of about 85 not out in the 4th test match at the MCG on the 2002/3 tour - wasn’t enough to save the follow on, but he played really well that day. If memory serves me right, he took more wickets than our supposedly lead strike bowler Caddick, up until Caddick got 7-49 in the 2nd innings at Sydney right at the end of that tour. Funny that, as it was Caddick’s last ever test appearance for England. Think he would have played in 2003, but was injured and never saw the 3 lions again.
232 - Perhaps the Scottish electorate really are 90minute nationalists.
I hope Salmond calls a referendum before the 31st of December.
Nothing to do with a betting slip I hold that hopes that scenario happens.
228 - Actually I was thinking of Mark Ealham.
Chalky was great in 2000, when we beat the Windies. He turned into a potent bowler.
232.oldnat. The majority of Scots don’t want your fat Duce and never have.
234 - I once heard Nasser Hussain in conversation with Darren Gough at Headingley 2000 talking about that “Big eared tw@ from Somerset”
I nearly dropped my drink.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftab_Habib was another, but he played 2 test matches apparently.
I also remember http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usman_Afzaal for his 3 tests. Think I’m correct in saying that he always had a tendency to play with a closed face. Steve Waugh saw this, and decided to leave an inviting gap with mid-off area vacant, and try as best as he could to get the ball through there, Afzaal couldn’t. Was hilarious watching it in the 2001 Ashes, and one of the many reasons why I loved SR Waugh’s captaincy. OK, he had the well documented failure in that extraordinary India series of that year, but he always played the right way, totally positive. The no nightwatchmen approach was also brilliant and typically ruthlessly Australian as well.
The Screaming Eagles @235:
You might have been better to have looked at the parliamentary arithmetic before making that bet!
Having listened to the Jeremy Vine Show today is it not time to say how coprehensively Scotland’s Salmond has facd down his critics on Megrahi’s release.
The responses from listeners (mostly from England) indicated how much people had been wating for a “Love Actually” moment. In other words any UK politician willing to stand up to the US of A.
Nytol
223: ‘What was our worst one cap wonder of the last 30 years?’
As a Sussexman I hate to say it but:
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/player/22361.html
241.ex pat.George Galloway took the americans on and won.Salmond fled.
243 - shouldn’t he have had a pair in that 1 test he played against West Indies in 1995? When he came out 2nd time out, the game was dead as a draw was guaranteed, nicked one behind, but luckily for him, none of the West Indians noticed.
Have to say that looking at the list of linked articles, I don’t have the heart to criticise him. poor chap.
245 - ‘When he came out 2nd time out, the game was dead as a draw was guaranteed, nicked one behind, but luckily for him, none of the West Indians noticed.’
I didn’t know that! I do the remember even the West Indies looking a bit embarrassed for him when he got out in the first innings, so perhaps they just let him off out of pity. (At the time there was a large and vocal campaign by Sussex for his England call up, which just added to the bathos of it all.)
You have to wonder what would happen to our current bowlers if they had played earlier.
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/player/9269.html
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/player/20224.html
246 - ‘Have to say that looking at the list of linked articles, I don’t have the heart to criticise him. poor chap.’
Didn’t see that. Quite right.
Not strictly a one test wonder.
But look at that batting average
http://www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/player/9121.html
Ah Blakey was stitched up. He was a quality player who would have done a good job given a less mental debut.
250 - ‘But look at that batting average’
That’s strange. Blakey’s Test debut was a match they were discussing on the radio on Thursday: Before Morgan, Chris Lewis’s 117 was the last time an England batsman reached his maiden Test century with a 6.
That’s me done. Tomorrow should be another great day in cricket and Athletics terms.
Night all.
Oz update, get betting on the rank outsider in a 2 horse election race.
How quickly things change, the 5 to 1 against the Tories in oz winning looks rather good as the latest polls give them a 52-48 2 party preferred win and the poll has labour at 36 and the Tories, (actually Liberals and national party Coalition)at 45.
Labour need 40% to win, assuming they get the greens preferences which were passed over and done as usual in another secret sweetheart deal a few weeks ago.
Leaks from the previous leaders Latham and Rudd and major namecalling show the backbitching is chaotic.
The faceless but now known factional union thugs who forced this charade and tried to have a policy free election are fooling the people less and less, although sadly there is always a lot of women who will vote for this labour woman because she is a woman and it does not matter if she is sneaky and devious, and stabbed her ex boss in the back.
men are up to 16% more likely to vote for the man, as he tells it like it is, calling climate change “crap”, and saying that he willd ecide who enters Oz, not some rich Asian smuggler who takes 20k apop from economic migrants who have made their way to Indonesia to hitch a ride and then losxe their papers.
His no papers no entry rule seems to be annoying the do gooders and the refugee industry, but winning the suburbs.
Pity that the Greens who managed to ban forest fire reduction in dangerous areas as a prerequisite for their preferences means that ongoing dangers of forest fires will continue this year after 173 died last year in Black Saturday, partly due to the lack of fire breaks.
The entire country except the Greens, including the Royal Commission it seems, (who asked people and spent 20 million quid on a study), wants people to be able to take away trees from areas near their homes in forest fire regions. That way they can see aproaching fire and make a decision to flee. Sounds reasonable?
But the voting system means that the 10% city supporters who vote for the whale loving treehuggers tell the 90%, and in fact the 99% in the areas where this is a danger, what to do. So wrong, as it costs lives.
Listening to the Victorian premier waffle madly on this subject this morning saying he wanted to ask the people and not make a decision despite a Royal commission was truly pathetic, but he has an election too in November and without the Greens the opposition would definitely win.
AV means you settle for the needs of the few to be taken seriously; at least a few forest creatures were safe in their havens, well at least until they were frazzled alive along with the people that lived nearby.
I should add that the Tory in Oz is known as the Mad Monk as he was going to be a priest, and has personal views to the right of Genghis Khan, whereas the labour woman is unmarried with a sorta boyfriend she sees occasionally and is a confirmed atheist.