What if the price of a litre reaches GBP 1.20?
March 16th, 2010
How will this go down in the marginals?
The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is a warning by the AA that the price of a litre could “within day” hit the £1.20 a litre mark.
This would make it more expensive than during the last peak in July 2008 which also coincided with Labour worst position in the opinion polls.
This was looked at here in a post at the end of December when I posed the question “What will this look like on polling day“.
An issue that I highlighted ten weeks ago is that not all constituencies are affected equally. For the English middle-sized towns, where many of the marginals are, private motoring can be a hugely sensitive issue.
For compared with the big conurbations it’s in these places where public transport can be very limited that the motor car is more essential for every day life. Anything that makes motoring more expensive or difficult is politically toxic.
Here in Bedford for instance, which Labour loses on a 4% swing, bus services mostly pack up by 8pm and very few routes operate on Sundays.
Exhortations about the environment and car-use from politicians in public transport-rich London fall on deaf ears.
Expect huge pressure to be brought on the oil companies to stave this off until after the election.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First!
2 nights in a row!
If it reaches £1.20 per litre, then it won’t be high enough. The impending global catastrophe caused by fossil fuel depletion (as well as climate change, desertification, mass migrations and wars) will lead to a mass extinction and the remnants of humanity being thrown back to the stone age, unless we are collectively serious enough to create a sustainable society with renewable energy. By the time I’ve finished writing this, I’ll probably be about fifth?
Oh all right then, second and third?
What odds that the fuel duty escalation will be after the election bumped to October for important reasons :rolleyes:
4. This post didn’t come out as I intended it. Point is, the fuel duty escalation in the Budget normally takes effect from midnight on budget day. Somehow I suspect some contrived reason will see it kicked until the autumn this year instead.
“Oh is that after the election, what a coincidence …”
And why is the fuel price so critical? It’s the METTHs, stupid…
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/09/is-it-because-the-marginals-are-different/
Off topic. From The Sunday Times:
“It is the Labour party that appears to have lost most support from mothers; support for Labour among working-age, working-class housewives went down from 52% in 1986 to 27% in 2008.
That doesn’t mean they’ve deserted to the Conservatives; the trend is towards “no party” disaffection.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/minette_marrin/article7060971.ece
It would look more interesting if the petrol price graph and the Conservative lead graph were laid over on top of each other, so that we can compare - not just “highest point” and “within 1%”.
I have invented a new word (at the end of the last thread).
I’d have thought that one move which would be very popular and also move our energy demand in the right direction would be to exempt any non-petroleum derived transport fuels from tax. Today the amount of fuel that comes from anything other than crude oil is tiny. But there’s no reason we couldn’t massively expand use of alternative fuels derived from gas, coal, biofuels, alcohols, etc. Exempting cars which achieve a certain fuel efficiency from road tax would also be good.
There’s a big overlap between policies which are expressly designed to look green / save the planet (and which can therefore enthuse or annoy depending on where you stand on AGW) and those which are designed to promote sustainable energy security.
I think Labour have gone completely for the Al Gore worldview and are trying to make life tough on motorists because they want to be seen saving the whales. Dave could be more cunning and tax oil derived fuel as a means to help pay for development of alternative feedstock based fuels. By exempting the ‘other’ he’d tick the green box but it wouldn’t make any noticeable difference to the revenue for quite a time.
This is, of course, also a national security issue. Now that we are a net importer of energy we must generate money to pay oil producing nations for their crude – and that hurts our balance of payments. Many of the oil producing nations are not our friends, to say the least. Every pound saved on buying oil is good for us environmentally, politically, internationally and above all financially.
(Has anyone noticed the impact the UK’s disastrously absent deficit reduction plans have had on Sterling and the direct link that has on fuel prices, given that oil is traded in dollars? I’m sure Gordon hasn’t)
Loony,
I sincerely hope, by the way, that you were wearing your proper Loony outfit yesterday. Going to a political funeral in other than the full MRLP gear is surely not the done thing?
(Also a personal question, if I may: Did Brown smell? He just looks dirty and unwashed to me and I have an impression (no doubt utterly one sided and biased but an impression nonetheless) that he whiffs. Is it true?)
- “… the motor car…”
Grampa Smithson showing his vintage there. What other types of “car” are there nowadays? Trolley-cars? Horse-drawn cars? Nuclear-reactor cars?
Long live the overhead valve internal combustion engine. Invented by… wait for it… a Scot!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Dunbar_Buick
http://books.google.com/books?id=__97vmmX0SMC&dq=Scotland+invented&hl=en&cd=2
I posted about the impending large rise in fuel well over a week ago. The main drivers are:
1. a renewed large demand by China who are buying up oilfields.
2. Price of oil is currently around $80 which is the lowest economic price for new oilfield development.
3. The £ sterling will continue to depreciate against all other currencies whilst HMG prevaricates about cutting both the budget deficit and the debt.
In fact £1.50 a litre is a more realistic price.
Those who will be affected are all who are forced to use a car or van daily - that is everyone who does not live and work in the few large cities.
As HMG has failed to develop and put in place both a transport policy and renewable fuel policies, then the UK consumer and industry can expect to be at a competitive disadvantage to other countries.
This is just another reason why multinational companies will not want to invest in the UK and we will see further decline in what is left of our industrial base.
This is the result of short termism by Labour over the last 13 years and spending money on immigration and useless public sector jobs rather than infrastructure development. Now we do not have that money to catch up on that development.
‘Capital gains tax fear sparks panic sales’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f9d21f6-309c-11df-a24b-00144feabdc0.html
Bookies’ best prices - Edinburgh South West (incumbent: Alistair Darling, Lab maj over Con = 7,242)
Lab 8/13 (Paddy Power)
Con 7/4 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
SNP 20/1 (Bet365, Victor Chandler)
LD 25/1 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
This is solely for the Sage of Sussex. The rest of you can look away now.
Latest YouGov/Sun Scottish sub-sample (usual caveats apply):
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 39% (n/c)
SNP 29% (+11)
Con 14% (-2)
LD 13% (-10)
Grn 3% (+2)
BNP 0 (n/c)
UKIP 0 (n/c)
oth 2%
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-results_15-March2010.pdf
Baxter gives following seat changes:
Lib Dem losses to Labour:
- Dunfermline & West Fife
- East Dunbartonshire
- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Lib Dem loss to SNP: Argyll & Bute
Lab loss to SNP: Ochil & South Perthshire
SNP loss to Lab: Glasgow East
2. John, I hope you had your tngue firmly in cheek when you wrote that. I know you are rightly proud of your lunacy but some things are just too silly to be taken in any way seriously.
I think petrol prices are a bit like the weather, we do (and should) complain about them, but I don’t think we automatically blame the government.
However, I do think that the proposal for the HS rail lines should go ahead as quickly as possible- though I (for purely selfish reasons) would also like to see an extension to Aberdeen.
Mike,
You say:‘Expect huge pressure to be brought on the oil companies to stave this off until after the election’
That’s not really the way retail fuels pricing works. The refineries buy crude and process it and then sell refined product. The difference between the two prices per barrel is called the ‘refining margin’. Right now it is very low - the whole petrol refining industry is having a terrible time.
Petrol stations buy refined product and sell to customers. This is a cutthroat industry and profit margins at the forecourt are wafer thin.
Overall a big, integrated refiner / marketer like the famous name oil majors (Shell, Esso, BP, Total, Texaco, etc) make a very few pennies profit per litre. Cutting by even 1p would impact their bottom line by a much, much larger number.
The two key variables in fuel price are the price of crude and tax - the refining, marketing and profit slices on top of that are very small. As China recovers and Sterling slumps it is highly likely that crude will appreciate a bit in Dollar terms and more than a bit in Sterling terms. There is nothing the oil companies or Brown can do to determine the price of crude.
Tax on the other hand is wholly within Gordon’s remit. If he doesn’t want UK transport costs to be uncompetitive and politically damaging then he should cut the tax on fuel. If he can’t afford the lost revenue he shouldn’t have pissed a trillion quid up the wall over the last decade.
The price we will have to pay for fuel is just one of the ways in which a decade of leftyism is going to cost us all alot money.
Couldn’t come at a worse time for the government. Oh look, here comes the election!
Looks like the big mo is moving away from Labour after they peaked at the wrong time.
We have the EU criticising the government’s economic policy and the budget next week - which will mean front page bad headlines in every single paper and negative stories all the way until Brown calls the election of weeks later.
Europe’s refining capacity exceeds its consumer demand. About 10-15 refineries need to close to balance supply and demand.
Total has tried to close its Dunkirk refinery snd has nigh surrendered to the unions after massive strikes that hit all its Fench refineries and supply terminals.
The oil majors are putting their money into exploration and production of crude world-wide and are trying to get out of refining and distribution.
More UK refineries will be sold off or closed. Each refinery supports about 1500 direct jobs with 1000s more in support services.
16 Patrick
just for a bit of clarity; refining margins at the moment are negative! ie they loose money on the product being sold -especially in petroleum. So if they could get away with it, prices should rise substantially, as mentioned by the posters above.
“Expect huge pressure to be brought on the oil companies to stave this off until after the election.”
I suspect the government are powerless to stave this off (which is good). Oil is traded in dollars and the price increase is simply reflecting how the pound has weakened against the dollar over the last three months. Chart here http://bit.ly/c2Uif6
If fuel prices affect votes, then somewhat paradoxically the government could be saved by the polls suggesting a Tory win, which would in turn strengthen the pound and reduce the price at the pumps.
It already has on parts of the A3.
If he puts off the fuel escalator the mkts will hate it as again it is a deferral of debt reduction and the £ will sink even lower driving the price even higher.
Darling is stuffed on this.
here’s a bit of back-of-an-envelope journo-maths:
Last year, Tax Freedom Day was on May 14, meaning for 134 days, every penny you earned went to the state.
Now, let’s cautiously assume that freedom day is the same this year. And let’s assume that the Moody’s numbers are right. So that means that you’ll spend 9.38 days working this year solely to pay the interest on the Government’s debts.
If Tax Freedom Day stays on the same date (which it won’t…) then the Moody’s figures suggest that we’ll all end up doing 16 days’ work a year just to pay off the interest on the Government’s credit card.
And if Moody’s ever downgrades the UK, the interest bill will get bigger, quickly. Meaning more of your daily efforts will be made so the Treasury can pay off some City guy who happens to own some of those gilt-things.
ps
Top marks to the BBC website for its, er, idiosyncratic take on the Moody’s report. Far be it from me to suggest that this might be a rather over-postive view, but the falling pound today suggests the markets are not so sanguine.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100030012/moodys-markets-and-what-the-deficit-means-to-you/
Well, I suppose it could be worse. The extra VAT paid on the higher fuel price and the fuel escalator may mean a little more money for skoolsn’ospitals
In Oz, the British institutions started buying the pound 2 hours early today to try to reverse the big losses of the last 18 hours. Did not wait until 10am London time as per the last 4 days; things must be desperate to go this hard this early.
The fall of the pound is of course undeniable proof the economy is rooted, so I expect every effort to be done at Stalin HQ to suggest that everything is superficially fine and dandy.
Not sure how long they can keep pumping money in though.
The UK deficit already over 12.5% of GDP is expected to reach 12.6% later this year against an EU target for 2015 of just 3% . Those who have been following the Greek situation where they have been described as an economic basket case in need of a Eurozone bailout will not be pleased to hear that the UK is the only country in the EU with a higher deficit as a % of GDP.
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/03/uk-finances-in-worse-state-than-greece.html
This will go down a storm in the Leeds marginals, considering it was the Dear Leader himself, who personally cancelled the city’s tram system when it had the good sense to vote in a Conservative led local authority.
12 Yup. But try explaining to a lefty that those big nasty oil companies are not making any money in petrol. ‘Obscene profits’ they scream when the results come out. If only it were true.
There’s a bus which tootles round where I live - generally almost empty - with some slogan on the side which preaches about the environment etc. It’s a total joke.
There’s no hope that buses can possibly cover even 10% of the journeys people want to do in such a way that the total fuel used woudl not be less were people to travel individually. You probably need at least 4 or 5 passengers per bus for any given journey to be better than those passengers going in tehir own cars instead.
I think this is a good point - people don;t pore over the political news but tehey sure as hell notice the fuel price.
If the tories can link a weak pound (and so higher £ price for $-denominated oil) to the government’s deficit incompetence, they could benefit.
No doubt it will not show up in the CPI measure of inflation as that seems to exclude anything actually rising in price. Its seems that the price has gone up 1p every week since xmas…… 3p more on the 1st April plus the extra from the falling pound should keep this going till the election…..
If the pound had been part of the euro I do not think it would have changed Britain’s manufacturing export much as there are almost none to worry about. (Only slight sarcasm.)
It would have meant people could afford an extra few beers on holiday, and that to joe average is what is really important, as that is the only time currency exchange ever impinges on them.
19: The March election should have been the one they called. With the budget, and continuing developments over debt and spending it’s difficult to see up-sides moving forward for labour.
Fuel may well be a factor.
However, I also wouldn’t underestimate weather. This is more significant I think. About two weeks ago we had the faintest hint of spring, which was then scuppered by a return to biting winds and cold nights. At last yesterday and today real warmth is returning to this land: the Central England Temperature series mean rose above 7C yesterday for the first time since December 10th: for those of us who study weather an astonishing fact.
There are excellent pyschological peer-reviewed studies that demonstrate the effects of weather on mood.
Spring brings optimism. As warmth returns, so does the feel good factor. The political correlation is not absolute and ironically this does not necessarily apply to Election Day itself. Indeed the 1997 massacre was on a beautiful day after a cold start. Here I think another narrative applies: if the Day itself dawns bright this can induce a ‘fresh new start’ feel, although of more significance is the fact that all bar about 10% of voters have already made up their minds by the polling day (though this still leaves a remarkable 1 in 10 who haven’t).
So, Spring is, well, ’springing’ at last. Levels of optimism will be rising. I expect Labour to narrow again over the next couple of days.
15. Stuart
SNP +11 - does this mean that yougov are fixing their Scottish anomaly?
I was going to complain about the 3p increase in duty, but then I thought well everything is going the same way post 6th May. So it’s just a taste of what’s in store. Better get used to it.
Bradby raises the Eton Bullingdon matters “David Cameron really does have the worst CV imaginable in any modern politician” and then this ….
“David Cameron is really rather good on TV. He came across as likeable, moderate, sensible and sane. ”
“Sane”. Now who does that contrast with?
http://blog.itv.com/news/tombradby/?p=87
“I will go on until I get a majority”. When a politician says they are “going on” is that really the time to fetch the men in white coats?
The public sector trade union UNISON recently launched an online video which claimed that cutting public spending meant leaving people without 999 operators, bin men or nurses.
In response, we now present an edited version of their film, which demonstrates the wide range of absurd non-jobs throughout the public sector which could be abolished without any impact at all on front line services.
All of these jobs are real posts in various branches of the public sector.
http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/archives/008445.html
35: It can also spark a ‘time for change’ mood and for people to look forward and want improvement.
These kind of things are easy to spin for either party.
http://dizzythinks.net/2010/03/is-john-mann-wanker.html
35. Why on earth what Labour benefit from a ‘fresh new start’ feel?
Not that this theory is any more than b******s of course!
29: even more if they realised huge amount spent on tram scheme before it was turned down
Support from the UK has dropped off completely last half hour, “they” could not save the pound depsite throwing buckets at it. So watch the pound plummet without that help. Fallen OVER half a cent USD for example in last 10 minutes.
Will the 10am london manic rush be thrown as last line of defence? We shall see.
Hopefully Bye Bye Brown, nice try all this kidology, but the REAL truth is out there about the economy now and people know the abridged version is borderline fantasy.
Loved the ‘non-jobs’ viral. The only one I’d disagree with is “dramatherapist” (e.g. Someone who helps kids get over severe traumas by encouraging them through creative play).
All the others we can get rid on may 7th.
39. John Denham was on TV this morning talking about local authority chief executives who have been given £1/4 million - £1/2 million pay offs from their local council after personality differences with councillors, only to land a high paid job with another authority. He plans to put a stop to this - about time too.
brian 36, Tories real vote is far more than 14%, so if anything with labour having 3 times labour vote the Tory position in England in this poll TODAY is clearly another 1 or 2% better.
The actual vote in polls amortised is around 34 labour 29 snp, 20 tory and 16 liberal.
So still too much labour weighting I would suggest.
43: The tide is beginning to turn it feels. The EU shafting Brown shows that the tories are beginning to win the battle. UNITE links to labour are coming out in the mainstream media.
All these things have been around for a while, but it’s only when the main media, and most importantly the BBC start to take notice that it’ll gain traction. The 10o’clock news last night was very bad for labour.
We import alot more than we export. If Sterling keeps plunging then exporters will eventually benefit but we will all notice higher costs and higher inflation almost straight away. This will put upwards pressure on interest rates too. Servicing the national debt will get even more expensive.
Brown says GDP growth must be ‘protected’ by spend, spend, spend. Osborne says the debt is the real problem and unless we get it under control ASAP we’re fuc*ed. Osborne is right and Brown is wrong. The EU agrees. So do the markets. So do Moodys and S*P. So does King. So does the CBI.
Brown seems to be an economic kamikaze mission. Is Labour’s potential non-drubbing at an election really worth all the damage being done to Britain? History is going to be very, very unkind on Gordon Brown.
15. Isn’t that an 8% swing from Con to SNP since yesterday? Volatile opinions up there!
41, ah, John Mann. A frequent twitterer indeed.
Looks legit doesn’t it? However there’s is an oddity about it. You see, there appears to be no such company as J W Shipley Distribution, either solvent or dissolved, listed on Companies House. An advanced search for all companies with “Shipley” also throws up nothing. Curious!
There is, however, an “independent” member of Humberside Police Authority called John Shipley who happens to be a local Labour Party activist in Hull, who also stood for the Labour Party in Hull during the 2002 elections.
I tried to contact Mr Shipley yesterday for confirmation that the invoice was from him but as yet have had no response.
Could it be that an allowance meant for non-party political activity is being used to pay Labour Party activists to deliver leaflets? Who knows, it’s a bit of mystery!
http://dizzythinks.net/2010/03/dianan-johnson-mp-and-mysterious.html
Correct Patrick. When will the media admit that the positions in Greece and in the UK are similar? Will it take a downgrade?
41: I can just see that one in court:
Rumpole QC: So, Mr John Mann, have you in any time in the past, in your years of living, undertaken in an act of masterbation?
Patrick @ 18. I think you’re missing the point.
All you say is true but Mike’s prediction to “expect huge pressure to be brought on the oil companies to stave this off until after the election” is I suspect right.
The reason is political, not economic or industrial. The government has to be seen to be doing something. It also needs to get as much control of the agenda as possible as others - including the TPA, RHA besides politicians - will want to put the point you made about tax. The government will not want to talk about tax. It will therefore blame the oil companies for the rises and point to their billions in profits as proof.
It is the job of the opposition (and to some extent, the media), to explain the link between the deficit, sterling and the domestic price of petrol.
55: They’re stuffed when everyone knows come Apri1, they’re slapping another 2.5p tax on it. The govenment have used motorists as a cash cow for the longest while (including prior tory govenments as well).
Disagree.
Oil companies do not set fuel prices. Supermarkets do.
Supermarkets are the biggest fuel retailers. They buy spot petrol and diesel so ANY price changes are reflected within days at the pumps.
40. & 42. That was the double-edged sword. On the Day itself the ‘fresh new start’ feel will benefit the Opposition, not Labour.
However, in the next few weeks I expect to see the Labour share rise as weather-induced optimism rises.
I’m sorry you think it’s just bs though (40). It really ISN’T! Mood is phenomenally important. Why do you think Cameron & Co. spend so much time on colour schemes and mood-lighting? Everything from the people sitting behind him, to the new logo, is about conveying, or reinforcing, a message. The greatest, free, background mood musack of them all is … weather. It’s ungovernable, but it tends at this time of year (in the northern hemisphere) to improve optimism and feel good.
However … one of my students made an interesting observation: he thinks the new Conservative logo will tune-in just right to the prevailing foliage at election time …!
Fuel prices - looks like an ideal opportunity for Gordon to be “very angry” and disappear off to Saudi for the duration of the BA strike, to order OPEC to lower prices
In a shock move, Gordon Brown is going on GMTV this morning.
39. What is this fetish with ‘front line jobs’?
I work in a back office, providing IT support and development in a building society. The front office - though critical to the business and its public face (or voice) - would find it more than a bit difficult without us.
In fact, if, for some reason, the staff in every branch, agency and call centre were made redundant, my guess is that the business could survive for a few years. If my department were abolished, it would struggle to make it to the end of the month.
Why is petrol going up?
Oil rose from $70 a barrel to $140 a barrel. Petrol prices rose. Oil fell from $140 back to around $80 now. Petrol prices are still going up.
I smell ‘intervntion’ - a desperate need for cash somewhere.
Few know what is going behind the scenes, but there needs to be some fancy footwork to resolve the BA dispute. Planes and their crews can’t be moved around at the last minute. If the strike gets called off at the eleventh-hour, there will be a knock-on effect.
…
Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary, said:
This is an industrial dispute, not a political dispute.
Well, up to point. The truth is rather different; this is an industrial dispute where the political consequences could not be higher.
…
Brown, for obvious reasons, is attempting to put the lid firmly back on this can of worms. But where is Peter Mandelson? Apart from slumping himself down beside Adonis in the Lords yesterday, he has not been very visible in recent days.
As one of the architects of the New Labour project, and having the sole responsibility for keeping Brown in office last June, Mandelson needs to act to ensure that the party doesn’t turn into itself. Perhaps it is too late.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/03/ba-and-unite-waiting-for-mandelson.html
62
Duty increases and falling sterling explain it all.
You see conspiracies everywhere:-)
56. Philip at [4] suggests that the government will find cause to delay that rise until later in year. I wouldn’t disagree with his prediction.
This theory was one of the most interesting theories put forward on pb. I give it a lot of credence. The public are very tuned in to petrol prices (well I’m not because I’m not a car owner, but most people are). People notice very keenly how much they are shelling out on something that is a very common expense and where literally you see the cost whizzing in front of your eyes.
You can talk about billions and trillions till you’re blue in the face, but if the cost of filling your tank has just increased by a few pounds, that’s when the public really start thinking that we’re going to hell in a handcart.
64. Sterling was $1.35 a year ago when oil was higher in $. It is now $1.51.
The petrol price story is currently top of the ‘most read’ list on the BBC News website despite only being fourth billed and therefore not having a picture alongside it.
Good morning all .
15 Let’s see what the S(au)sage of Scotland comes up with when he does the same analysis from today’s Sun/Yougov poll .
*** BETTING POST ***
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2010/03/is-pope-benedict-xvi-about-to-resign.html
Paddy Power
Pope Benedict XVI to resign as Pope
3/1
67
So? It was $2.0 in 2008
70 - In just under 2000 years, only one Pope has resigned, Celestine V (He was immortalised by Dante as the one “who made the great refusal”). I would therefore have hoped for somewhat better odds on that proposition.
R4 Today, now: Zippy vs Ken Clarke
67. No it wasn’t, it was below $40 a barrel, compared with about $78 yesterday:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm
65. But that’ll just give Cameron a big stick to beat Labour with.
Is the potential loss of votes from raising fuel duty immediately greater than the potential loss of votes from not doing so?
Brussels attacks UK deficit plan:
Alistair Darling and the Labour government have failed to announce a “sufficiently ambitious” plan to cut the UK budget deficit, the European Commission is poised to conclude on Wednesday, according to a leaked draft document. The Commission has no option but to rap Britain over the knuckles because Brussels recommended in December that the government increase the planned speed of deficit reduction. But the chancellor paid no attention to the advice in his pre-Budget report a week later.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2010/03/16/176066/brussels-attacks-uk-deficit-plan/
70 - He didn’t resign when it emerged that he was a card-carrying member of the Nazi party, so why would he be persuaded to resign over something as commonplace as covering up for paedo priests?
Jim Naughtie showing his true colours again on Today.
Ken Clarke seems to have just pledged the Tories to cut an extra £20 Bn PA over and above Labours plans.
Will that last till lunchtime or will the other Shadow CoE squish it?
70 - It would be somewhat unfair for this pope to take the rap for the previous pope’s inaction.
12
The Knight and Burt-McCollum sleeve valve engines gave better specific fuel consumption than the adenoidal traditional OV engine. The result, if they were used, would be 5-10% better mileage.
79 Morning Tim..are you on first shift today…bit late..
The thing about fuels and transport policy is that it is vital to get it right from the point of view of simple administrative competence. That has always been Labour’s weak spot. They can spin with the best of them but when you actually need competent delivery in some area of national importance - well then it’s whelkstalls I’m afraid. Look at the unforgivable mess we’re in on electricity generation for example.
Labour had a choice between spending on strategic infrastructure or diversity outreach co-ordinators. They chose the latter. Now we all have to pay for that decision. You get the government you vote for, so people shouldn’t be too upset.
71. Here is the oil chart 3 years. http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=1070572&ss=WSODIssue
You see it is about the same price in $ as it was 3 years ago.
Overall the oil price is falling much faster than the Pound Sterling. Draw your own conclusions.
FPT PfP:
“Your wrong on this Richard! Firstly you may not capture the number of seats won by Labour in that they could win > 324 seats, unlikely but possible. Equally they could win fewer than 275 seats but still be the party with the most seats. Secondly the odds you quote above when combining the two bands into one bet produces odds of only 4.3/1, barely any better than the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes which provides blanket coverage, without having to guess which will be the winning band.”
No Peter it is you who is wrong about this:
Firstly the chances of Labour winning 325+ seats is very, very small - take a look at some of the seats they would have to win for this to happen.
Secondly the chances of both Labour and the Conservatives having fewer than 275 seats is also very, very small - it would mean fewer than 60 Conservative gains but more than 70 Labour losses.
Thirdly by betting on 275-299 Labour MPs you cover yourself for the possibility of Labour getting 275-285 MPs and the Conservatives 295-285. A far more likely possiblity than the ones you mentioned.
It will add another point or two to the Conservative lead. High petrol prices even put Hague ahead temporarily.
Tanking Sterling + anti-business government = soaring petrol prices. This is a calculation that should be stuck on billboards forthwith.
Ah, I love the smell of another Brown bottle job.
Brown on GMTV facing another tough audience of under 5’s at a SureStart centre
Brown’s on Gordon Morning TV again today. Does he actually spend anytime looking at matters of Govt? Seems to spend most of his time on the pre-election campaign.
But since he is Labour’s biggest negative the Conservatives are unlikely to complain.
87 They outsmarting him on economics?
Political suicide for Labour to put petrol up 3p (again…) in a fortnight, a kick in the balls for all of us and on the day of the Easter getaway too. I don’t think they’ve any option to go ahead with it though, as it would look too weak to suspend it now.
But the daily creep upwards in prices is being noticed, and is becoming a more frequent topic of conversation again.
Osborne’s barmy sliding scale fuel duty policy (or has it been dropped??) almost seems sensible at the moment…
Liam Byrne reckons the EU is wrong
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6652/byrne_the_eus_got_the_judgment_wrong.html
GMTV = Gordon & Magda Television?
Brown: “Sarah is not political at all…… She’s helping with my campaign”
Morning all.
Ken Clarke vs Liam Byrne on Today was entertaining. Ken just lazily swatted Byrne away.
I think the message is going to start to get through. The EU report could not have come at a better time from the Tories’ point of view, ripping in to Darling’s plan to fudge the budget just days before it is presented. We can expect more murmurings from the financial markets and analysts over the next couple of weeks.
One of Labour’s big problems is that they vacillate between accusing the Tories of wanting to cut too much and accusing them of not having a plan. Ken Clarke of course swept that aside easily enough, pointing out the Brown, despite having ‘thousands of civil servants’ to do the work, has cynically postponed doing a spending review.
For the great majority of people, road fuel isn’t a discretionary item. They have little choice as to how much they use for travelling to work, etc. As Mike Smithson points out, in most places public transport isn’t an option that people can actually take up. Rather, people see buses as lumbering inconveniences occupying a lot of road space (and all those oppressive bus lanes) carrying few passengers outside peak hours.
Equally, most people are now aware that most of what they pay at the pumps doesn’t go to the retailer or to the oil company, but to the government. The idea that anyone can feel good about this because it’s going into schools-n-hospitals (dumbed down grades, illiteracy and hospital acquired infections) doesn’t deserve to be taken seriously for a moment.
Again, many voters realise that they they’re not just paying extra at the filling station, but also in Tesco as higher diesel prices make it more costly to put goods on the shelves.
There may be a few people left who are wedded to the idea that high fuel prices will ’save the planet’ as JohnLoony seems to suggest. That is, there may be a few people in North London who are still carrying a torch for global warming alarmism, but (if I were a betting man) I’d bet that there are not many like that now in marginal constituencies. Woe betide any Labour minister who tries to sell higher prices as good for the electorate.
It seems form the Telegraph article that the AA and Labour MPs don’t understand the concept of exchange rates or fuel duty increases.
Incidentally am I right in thinking that both Brown and Darling are unable to drive?
If so they are unlikely to have had the petrol pump experience of watching your money get burnt - £10, £20, £30, £40, £50 and up it continues.
91 xenon
Poor Liam hasn’t kept up to speed with the Germans. In the unlikley event the UK got into the Euro, the Germans are seeking a mechanism to kick the profligate straight back out. UK wouldn’t last 2 seconds. Zippy is fast becoming a “reverse talisman”, whatever he says the reverse applies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7451058/German-bloc-plays-tough-on-Greece.html
96 - Brown certainly doesn’t. He was famously asked if he knew the typical current pump price (as one of those “ask MPs the price of milk” Q&As) and he replied in $ per barrel!
Brown on GMTV: ‘as a parent myself, I play my part in trying to play my part’.
Oh for the love of GOD!
Patrick
Young children have a similar economic view as Brown - always wanting more money spent but totally unable to pay for things themselves.
I wonder what the Rev Ebeneezer Brown’s view on spending and work and debt was.
Slackbladder March 16th, 2010 at 7:50 am “Rumpole QC: So, Mr John Mann, have you in any time in the past, in your years of living, undertaken in an act of masterbation?”
Followed up with “Go on take the gloves us and show us your palms”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkqfa-kaRFM
93
(sigh)
Sometimes I think Brown just speaks to listen to sound of his own voice.
100 AR
however to be fair to the under-fives, they do have a better grasp of mathematics than Brown.
99, hahahaha.
If he comes out with shit like that when his best friends are asking him questions, how is he going to cope with Paxman at the election?
Re: Brown and the under 5’s. Is Brown recruiting for his next SPAD?
re R4 to clarify it was Naughtie + Byrne vs Ken Clarke.
104 - He is never going to do Paxman at the election, likewise Humphreys is on the never list.
96 ‘Incidentally am I right in thinking that both Brown and Darling are unable to drive?’
Brown doesn’t. Since 1997 he’s been insulated from the realities of the high motoring costs that the rest of us have to suffer, thanks to a fleet of luxury Jaguars and Range Rovers all run at our expense that remain at his beck and call when he needs to travel anywhere.
NOM 2.92-3
Con Maj 1.68
Polls DO move markets
have any of the kids started to run away from Brown?
108. Brown also seems to have reduced his exposure to all those taxes he expects us to pay.
106 Mr Ghost, Jim Naughtie really couldn’t help himself in the Clarke v Everyone Else interview. Zippy Byrne needn’t have turned up.
I’ve had petrol prices whinged at me pretty randomly a few times this week. I didn’t realise that Labour were planning on a 3p rise from April.
That March election looks a better and better idea all the time.
What a pity for Labour that Gordon Brown hasn’t read a fine book on Courage. I forget the author.
107, but if he ducks it he’ll be frit-tastic, right before before everyone votes he’ll get a bollocking from the media for cowardice.
And who else would do it? Darling’s probably a decent fellow, but not up to it and I doubt he’d put himself through it. Balls? I bloody hope so. Harman is hectoring but probably the best of a bad bunch. Mandelson’s capable, but he is loathed by many people.
108, Brown can’t drive because of his bad eyesight.
Jim Naughtie the card carrying Labour party member.
In 2005 he asked Labour’s Ed Balls: ‘If we win the election, does Gordon Brown want to remain Chancellor?’
“We”
106 Ghost - It was a fair interview. Naughtie jumped on Byrne when he came out with the standard line about not pre-empting what the Chancellor would say in the budget, pointing out that he did exactly that last week.
110 - Lord Ashcroft, Lord Ashcroft.
Come on, Labourites, say his name three times and he donates to UNITE
79: No, I listened to that interview and Ken did no such thing. Naughtie tried to trap him into it, but Ken sailed clear over it whilst Zippy squirmed on the VAT rise or no rise issue.
A random thought: let’s say Brown loses the election (but stays as Labour leader) and the Tories form a majority government.
What happens to all the ex-Labour MPs who want to write memoirs about their time in office, including tasty snippets about Brown being a total shit? Do they hold off and exact a price, or go ahead, knowing it’ll damage their party but that it might help bring down Brown, at last?
106 Mr Ghost, an interesting comment from the interview was Zippy Byrne’s reluctance to rule out a VAT rise in the Budget. A very cagey response.
Virtually free money alert
You can back CAM/MAJ at 1.76 on betfair and lay CON MAJ at 1.70.
(Or you could just lay Lab majority I guess)
118 - They will publish they won’t have £60k + exes to live on.
117 Tim (tw) has selective hearing..
118 MD - They’ll publish. The tales are a wasting asset, and whoever comes up with the juicy stuff first gets the dosh.
79 Will that last till lunchtime or will the other Shadow CoE squish it?
Off message again, tim. The bunker’s official ribtickler on this one is “the shadow, shadow chancellor.”
Mandy is very quiet these days, don’t you think?
122 RD
have you had an answer from tim of reasons to vote Labour ?
By my estimates this is now 3 days overdue.
79 & 117. Oh dear tim, inventing things again? Maybe it’s best you return to reading your Ladybird book ‘Gambling principles for beginners’, and see if you can get your head around the basics of Chapter 2 ‘Paying out on losing bets’.
124. The business minister quiet during the run up to a strike by the flag carrier airline causing the media to go off message ?
Its almost as if he wants to give UNITE enough rope to hang itself…
125 - He’s waiting for his overtime slip to be filled in before trying to come up with three reasons when the entire Government have not managed that in the past five years.
I see John the Loony declared war on me in the previous thread! Should I be worried?
On Topic, I imagine the marginals, as welsewhere, will be pretty fed up with the price of fuel at the moment.
The irony is that the better that Mandy does in supporting Labour, the less risk of Brown having to resign after the election.
and the more influence his enemies, Whelan and Balls, will have within the party.
Whereas previously the unholy alliance of Blairites and Brownites was to save Labour from an election meltdown, the Blairites now see this as an unequal deal with Brown going on and on….. In a party controlled by Unite.
I seem to remember Brown and Darling taking great delight in rubbishing Osborne’s sliding scale fuel duty policy. Interesting if the tories now show what the price of petrol would be now if their proposal had been taken by Labour. The more the £ drops in value to the $ the more petrol will rise and the more Labours tax on petrol will rise. We all know that Brown said clearly a weak £ is the result of a weak government don’t we !!!!!!
Surely having Brown and Balls still there after an election loss would be Dave’s dream come true? Every PMQ would be a chance to lay the blame for every tough decision straight back at Labour.
132, Balls will get back in should he lose in this constituency. Brown needs a backer like Balls, and Unite probably sees him as the best hope for the leadership.
Hehe. I wonder whether Cameron will use all six questions on Unite/BA/links with Labour tomorrow.
The price of a litre is the one price everyone knows, when it rises the government gets the blame. However, it’ll be difficult for the Tories and Libdems, to call for lower prices, when the Green agenda demands higher ones. Isn’t everyone committed to, ‘Green Taxes?
119
Unlike John Major of course who announced. ‘We have no intention of increasing or extending the scope of VAT’ then attempted and failed to put 17.5% (raised from 15.0% to cover the cost of the poll tax fiasco) on domestic fuel.
Of course Labour could always take a leaf out of the Tories book.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/how-tories-kept-secret-of-15-vat-hike-1566429.html
Ah yes! the Tories, so much to be proud of when it comes to VAT.
Petrol is an easy cash cow for labours’ slaughterhouse economy. End of argument. Tories will also fail to address the dreadful burden of this issue except for an eventual correction of the economy and sterling. That requires frightening levels of pain before complete.
134. That was all a long time agoo Coldy. Time to forgive and forget?
133 - Doubt it. He will link it to something else though
Needed to get diesel for the car this morning so I called into Sainsburys in Craigavon on the way to work and found that the price was 116.9p/l up 2p since yesterday! As to how this will play electorally Im not sure. What annoyed people in 2008 was the rapid rise in the price driven by oil speculators. Labour got very lucky in that the credit crunch caused the price of oil to halve and this is one of the reasons why people don’t see the extent of the economic difficulty we’re in. Although prices are back at their peak levels the rise has happened gradually and people have been able to adjust so I don’t think they will feel as mad as they were 2 years ago.
Good morning all and the great irony about the petrol v votes debate is that the party which represents most of the most remote constituencies and where car dependency is greatest is the LibDems who have proved they are about as useful and influential as a chocolate teapot.
The Scottish Highlands has been dominated politically by the LibDems for at least a quarter of a century. Presently they hold 4 of the 5 mainland Highland seats (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Ross, Skye etc; Inverness, Nairn etc and Argyll) with the SNP holding Moray, a bit like their dominance in Cornwall. The LibDem Scottish leader was transport minister in the last Lib-Lab pact which ran Holyrood and they held 4 of the 5 Holyrood seats as well (now reduced to 2 with both Argyll and Inverness being in SNP hands).
What do we have in return? A 3rd world road network, incredibly poor public transport and the highest petrol prices in the UK. At present in the 108 mile stretch of A9 between Peth and Inverness there are no less than 18 changes in carriageway from dual to single to crawler lane to single and dual etc and they are about to build 2 more mile long stretches of crawler which will take to 20 the different varieties of road on that 108 mile stretch. No wonder several dozen people are killed each year on it, usually driving on the wrong side of the road.
Petrol prices from Tain north are from 3 to 10 pence per litre more expensive than in Inverness where the UK average price is roughly maintained most of the time by Tesco and Morrison. We dont have Asda (except in Elgin), Sainsbury or Waitrose in the Highlands.
So there is the perfect election slogan for the LibDems
A vote for us is a guarantee of crap roads, higher petrol and almost no public transport.
46 - After 13 years of this government my knee jerk reaction to Denham’s comment is “TALK IS CHEAP”.
Easterross March 16th, 2010 at 9:30 am “So there is the perfect election slogan for the LibDems. A vote for us is a guarantee of crap roads, higher petrol and almost no public transport.”
But that gives them plenty to say that they are “campaigning for” in all their Focus leaflets. If they actually fixed things they would have less Focus material.
134 Coldy how much has petrol increased since Gordon Brown first entered 11 Downing Street? What percentage of petrol costs go to the Government? 80% isn’t it?
141: You just brought to my mind images of sandal wearers sneaking out late at night to create potholes in roads in order for them to take their picture taken pointing at them the next day
136
I don’t do, ‘forgive and forget’ I do, ‘By their fruits shall ye know them’
Mike! I think you’d better email this guy, he’s obviously off message.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-polls-do-much-more-for-the-pollsters-than-for-the-public-1921848.html
No polls, would life be worth living, for PB’rs?
139
a guarantee of crap roads, higher petrol and almost no public transport
Or the Nicholas Ridley solution as its better known.
I just noticed something strange on the ICM poll figures (and I don’t know if someone else has pointed this out).
On the Social Class data, the Tories lead by 10 clear percentage points on the DE group, but trail by 10 on the C1C2 group and barely have a lead on the ABs. This strikes me as strange - for Labour to have gained so much ground in the more ‘politically aware’ groups but to have lost it in their ‘core vote’. Anyone else with opinions on this?
Expect huge pressure to be brought on the oil companies to stave this off until after the election.
Mike it’s not the oil companies’ doing but Darling and Brown’s reintroduction of the fuel duty escalator (RPI 1p) for 2010-2013. Petrol will go up 3p on 1st April although diesel is thankfully still well below it’s peak.
I am sure that petrol has been above £1.20 a litre. Didn’t it get to £1.30 plus at some stage a couple of years back?
142
I sincerely hope so, anything that hopefully cuts down fuel usage is surely welcome. Dave didn’t spend his week in an igloo, cudlling a husky, (with that guy who ran off with his decorator) for nothing I hope.
Anyway you should be pleased, if the price of oil goes up, the more money you Scots will make when you become independent.
145: Presumably the C1C2 group are the ones which labour need most, the public sector workers which get the most tax credits. Those are the ones which labour are targetting.
146 - I would be willing to bet a fortune that the Tories retain the duty escalator.
Morning All,
35. John
Nice try but if the coming of spring and the bringing of sunshine and warmth improves the mood of people tell me why is it in the period running up to the elections in the last few years it is Labour primarily who has suffered in the polls and not the Conservatives?
——————–
On topic. The headlines look pretty bleak for Labour. We are already suffering increased inflation and now with news that fuel prices are going to rise further things just got a whole lot worse. The vast majority of shifts in the polls are related to the pound in the publics pocket. When the Government announced the VAT cut and the BoE announced interest rate cuts
Now we have a triple whammy, sterling prices are falling so import prices rising on the highstreet, oil prices are beginning to rise in their own right because of increased demand causing the cost of domestic products to rise as well as imports and the Government intends to add insult to injury by raising fuel duties once again (and alcohol duties, NI and a whole lot of new taxes to boot - tobin taxes, death taxes, dog taxes and broadband taxes) etc. This is of course the Government that is frit of doing anything to resolve the problems because of an election in the offing eventhough their masters in Brussels are saying that their recovery plan is frit (not ambitious enough) as well.
Thats not to mention the pessimism of the Work and Pensions Secretary warning of unemployment increases or the outrageous actions of the Government to screw ex-pats out of part of the pension which they paid for (why is it Brown thinks people’s pensions belong to him and him alone?).
Now is the time to act and at least try and get sterling heading in the right direction against the dollar but will dithering Darling and Bottler Brown do it - not a chance…..
139 - Easteross. You’re not bitter, are you
150, it wouldn’t be necessary if Labour hadn’t wrecked the public finances.
144 Coldstone
‘By their fruits shall ye know them’
So you’re saying Brown’s gone bananas ? I agree.
Re 151 - When the Government announced the VAT cut and the BoE announced interest rate cuts they received the nearest they have got to a real bounce since Brown bottled that election.
I think Darling will delay the petrol rise until after the election - suicide otherwise.
Under the guise of “protecting the recovery”
O/T
I note that BA are planning to remove the generous staff travel perks “for life” of any strikers - I wonder if that may focus the minds of any potential “scabs” before Saturday. I predict a climbdown and a face saving fudge for the union.
Interesting supplementary from Yougov
From http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2893905/Suns-daily-poll-March-16.html
Paul Lloyd: “On the Social Class data, the Tories lead by 10 clear percentage points on the DE group”
Very interesting. One of the Hurd received wisdoms is that Labour has been busily creating a delendent underclass in order to keep themselves in power. If so, it doesn’t seem to have worked, does it?
I also suspect that the hgihest concentrations of DEs are in places where Labour doesn’t need their support, so its unlikely to do the Tories much good.
The bottom line is that what’s good for Labour is bad for the country. What’s good for the country is good for Dave.
Labour are going to lose every significant argument between now and the GE on every subject.
So they’ll revert to mudslinging, lies and obfuscation. A dirty GE, which they’ll lose will follow.
Slackbladder March 16th, 2010 at 9:36 am “141: You just brought to my mind images of sandal wearers sneaking out late at night to create potholes in roads in order for them to take their picture taken pointing at them the next day :”
You must have seen them at work?
They also pretend to clean graffiti. It is quite effective propaganda. Until it is found out; Ben Abbotts
http://order-order.com/2006/06/29/gotcha-ben-abotts-fakes-it/
Guido “Ben Abbott is a professional l*** who works for the grub***** spin merchants in Westminster”
Mike raises an interesting point in his intro. Isn’t the real scandal the piss-poor state of public transport in most parts of the country. Where I live it costs a family of four over £20 to do the nine mile return trip to Leamington by bus and it takes 45 minutes each way. In the village where my mother-in-law lives there is one return bus to Leamington each day. No wonder peopel are so dependent on cars.
144. Coldstone
‘By their fruits shall ye know them’
So does that mean that you think Labour are bananas (well Miliband and Brown certainly)?
If so then I might well be able to agree with you!
154 SNAP!
153 - Who introduced it?
161 SO
consider yourself lucky ! In my village we don’t even get a bus.
Labour turns Brown into a double act with Mrs Brown. Here is the Lib Dem response. A civil partnership to front their main website.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/splash.aspx
161 - it would be interesting to define what constitutes a “good” public transport system - as in where in the world does such a thing exist, and how/why does it work so well.
Part of the “problem” in this country is the expectation/demand created by widespread car ownership. Probably the apogee of public transport was the 1950s when there was still an extensive rail network and a bus infrastructure built around it. But I suspect journeys were still slow and relatively expensive.
150
Seeing as they introduced it in the first place, I wouldn’t be surprised. When the Tories put taxes on domestic fuel, and introduced the FPE, the always used the excuse, ‘Rio Conference’ it was like some mantra.
One aspect of the ICM poll I don’t think has been discussed much on this site.
Voters remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative, with 29% thinking a clear Tory victory would be best. Only 18% think Britain would be best served by a strong Labour win this spring. Both groups are outnumbered by the 44% who want a hung parliament in which the government works with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats.
So the public are so convinced by both the main parties, they don’t really want any of them to win.
If that aspect of the poll is correct, the Libdems could very well benefit as we near the GE, ‘A plauge on both your houses’
161: It’s very true SO. Public transport simply doesn’t work for most people, especially in rural/semi-rural areas.
For example, I could travel to and from work each night. However, I’d have to leave my house an hour earlier each day, and get home an hour later each night.
Losing an hour each night is too much of a cost, no matter how much it is. 20-25% of my total free time during the week.
161. Southam - So what are you going to do about it?
168 - TC
Although from what we’re told on here, they’re clearly papering over the cracks for the sake of the children.
Easterross, but you know that all your LD MPs have bugger all to do with transport - it’s devolved.
166 - Why am I put in the mind of the con artists where the nice young man keeps granny talking whilst the other raids her biscuit tin?
168. Coldstone - Is that a fully weighted question or does it include all those who say they won’t vote? Because if they don’t vote it really doesn’t matter what they say because they are not going to influence anything…….
166. Who’s the guy on the left next to Waldorf ?
RT @EricPickles We will be producing a report at 11 o’clock showing how Unite has bought the Labour Party #CashGordon
Blaenau Gwent Mark II?
All-woman shorlist woes in Lanarkshire:
‘Official quits as new row breaks out over Labour candidate’
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Official-quits-as-new-row.6153923.jp
165
The only way, (I’m in the same situation) a rural bus service can survive, is to be heavily subsidised, I don’t think there are to many takers for that now in any party, certainly not the Tories.
When I was a commuter, there was an alternative to the Train. The Green Line bus service, it went, when Ridley, (long may he rot in hell) ‘libralised’ (Tory term for destroyed) the bus network.
******BETTING POST********
O/T
For what it’s worth, my tips for today at Cheltenham
1.30 Get Me Out of Here
2.05 Sportsline and Somersby
2.40 The Package
3.20 Khyber Kim
4.00 Garde Champetre
4.40 Sway
Good luck to all and, for the first time, I’m going down for Thursday and Friday
154
Yeah! and Dave’s a lemon.
170 - There is not much I can do but I wonder whether public transport should be exempted from a certain percentage of fuel taxes as long as the savings are passed on to customers and result in more services.
168 - Coldstone. its interesting to read this quote from Nick Clegg’s speech:
“Who seriously believes that the British people, offered so much choice in every aspect of our daily lives, will ever again settle for a two-party system? If you have two parties, you only ever have two ideas. Actually that’s on a good day. Most of the time they can’t even rustle up a single good idea between them.”
Ignoring the political knockabout at the end, he makes a valid point.
In every aspect of people’s lives, rejecting one option does not mean there being only one alternative. Why should that be the same in politics? People will continue to vote tribally out of habit, but that phenomenon seems to be mainly one for the Labour party (and explains their continued poll resilience when every other factor should point to massive defeat).
The Tories have lost this tribal loyalty as their previous core vote has become more discerning. Many now, of course, have opted for the “don’t bother” party.
This does make things very open. The Lib Dems may benefit in terms of votes, but not seats. I suspect that this election will be more about changes in the widest sense. That will hurt some Lib Dem incumbents. Clearly it will hurt Labour ones, but also it will hurt Tory ones too.
Interesting.
Bookies’ best odds - Airdrie & Shotts (incumbent John Reid is retiring; Lab maj over SNP = 14,084)
Lab 1/33 Lad
SNP 8/1 Lad, PP
LD 100/1 Lad, PP
Con 125/1 PP
Should Shadsy maybe price up IND?
161 True, S. Observer.
But it is more complicated than just blaming the inactivity of politicians. The problem is more that cheap travel changed the way we live irrevocably, encouraging commuting and the break-up of extended families.
100 years ago your mother in law would not have lived so far away from her children (even though in modern terms your mother-in-law is very close).
I doubt if public transport can ever fulfill the almost infinite demand and complexity of modern-day travel needs without major changes in the way we arrange our work and family life.
179. I have only one bet on today - am large on Somersby in the 2.05
166
Don’t you think there is a certain sadness around Clegg’s eyes?
Maybe he has regrets: “Why have I allowed myself to be degraded and used this way..?”
178 - I do remember the outrage when fox hunting was abolished (I was against that and hope the legislation is repealed). The countryside was under attack, we were told. But where were these people when Ridley deregulated rural bus services and denied so many real country people - especially the elderly and the poor - of any meaningful access to the towns were the jobs and the shops are?
181: Which is effectively subsidising. I’m not entirely sure of the correct answer. Either spend huge amounts on a service no one will use no matter what, or have a crap service.
Taxing people out of using their cars is not an option.
After a lucky distraction on Ashcroft etc the debate has moved back into areas that for various reasons don’t play well for Labour - strikes (B.A), crime (Venables) and fuel prices. Labour ignored the fuel price protests of ten year ago until they suddenly realised their poll ratings had collapsed. If I was Darling I’d cancel the 2.5p increase on April 1st citing the genuine real danger it poses to inflation and U.K competitiveness. If fuel prices continue to head north to £1.50 per litre they will be lucky to retain 160 seats let alone get anywhere near a hung parliament.
189 - If I was Darling I’d cancel the 2.5p increase on April -
The trouble is that Darling has already spent it.
161 SO
See my post at 31 if I may be so bold…
How many people would use this bus at a maximum? Providing huge numbers of rural buses would not necessarily be best environmetally (and almost certinly disastrous economically)
There is nothing wrong with people being dependent on cars at the moment - LJK Setright argues in his brilliant book “Drive on!” that the car is the single greatest invention in the history of mankind, providing a greater amount of freedom than literally anything else, and he makes a very powerful case. Buses in these areas can’t possibly comete in terms of leaving when you want, from where you want, going to where you want, and back. Not possible.
Nowadays car companies provide highly fuel efficient small cars and the trend is getting lower. Public transport cannot hope to compete with the car in the vast majority of the land area of the UK, and we shouldn’t fret about this IMHO .
182 - It’s a very good point. I would describe myself as left of centre, but looking at the policies of this government there are so many I disagree with, while I like quite a few of those the LDs put forward - but not enough to be an enthusiastic supporter. And as someone who believes some kind of grammar school system might profitably be reintroduced - and everyday I am more convinced of this - where on earth do I put my X?
165 Alanbrooke..Heard nothing from Tim the welcher since i asked him if he had short arms and long pockets..but it may have been the wrong Tim..I have never seen their work/shift roster..They are quiet today tho,,,maybe getting a briefing in the bunker..
191 - The people that currently drive to Coventry because there is no bus to Coventry may well use the bus; I would not bother driving to the station to get the train down to London and there would be a few more like me. And so on.
In the end I suppoise you have to take a viewe on whether you believe in public transport or not. If you do then the subsidies are worth it.
191: Thats a rather good point. Theres no point in increasing services if people simply arn’t going to use them. It’s bad for the public finances and bad for the environment.
145 “On the Social Class data, the Tories lead by 10 clear percentage points on the DE group, but trail by 10 on the C1C2 group and barely have a lead on the ABs. This strikes me as strange”
ABC1 = Welfare state client vote isn’t the people who get the benefits it’s the people who administer the system.
C2DE = immigration (and foolishly believe Tories will do something about it).
182 Tabman
it’s not just the Tories who are seeing their core vote decay, Labour is also. It’s what I was saying about a week or so back. A lot of the traditional loyalties are crumbling and will not go back to where they were. It’s why I think the LDs are passing up on their best chance in a generation and the 90 seat strategy is a failure in ambition.
I see sterling is up by a cent, thanks to the polls reassuring the markets of a clear Tory victory.
194: If you want people which work to use them though, you need at least a service every 10-15mins both before and after work. For my bus journey (and I’ve just looked it up), there is a gap of 75mins between services, and an hour wait after I leave work for the bus to leave.
The oil companies have little to do with the price of petrol or diesel in the UK - from what I recall the tax rate is about 300%.
A barrel of oil contains 42 US gallons, 34.9723 (call it 35) imperial gallons, or 158.9873 (call it 159) liters.
Simply get today’s price of a barrel, do the math, add about 2% for profit, convert to GBP and the rest is tax.
Spot price for Brent crude is $77.81, which comes to $0.49 a liter. At $1.50 to the pound, that gives a cost of about 0.3266p a liter.
31, 191 “LJK Setright argues in his brilliant book “Drive on!” that the car is the single greatest invention in the history of mankind, providing a greater amount of freedom than literally anything else, and he makes a very powerful case.”
Probably, the www has at least as strong a case as increasing the amount of personal freedom than the motor car.
“What if the price of a litre reaches GBP 1.20″
We’ll leave the car at home and take the train/bus instead? Fat chance, unfortunately..
I’m going to visit a friend in London this weekend. It would cost more than £90 to take the train, and that’s even with the stupendous discount from using a family railcard. At £1.20 a litre it will cost about £35.
I never used to have a car, but now that I do I continually find that I would be crazy to travel by bus or train instead. If my girlfriend hadn’t brought her car with her when she moved in, the rising price of food and public transport would have prevented me from affording travel to visit friends.
Car drivers don’t realise how lucky they are, compared to the poor sods who can’t afford to run a car, and have no choice but to rely on public transport.
198
Ah yes! good to see the pound sitting up and taking a little light refreshment, soon be up and about.
It wasn’t so long ago, the pound was sooooo strong, that everyone was moaning it was tooooo strong.
Just remember all your fellow Cornish B&B owners who are rubbing their hands at the prospect of exploiting the grockles, now they can’t afford to go to Spain.
200
What the hell is ‘math’
Do you means ‘Maths’?
Speak English man not ‘americanese’
199 - It’s exactly the same for me. I can get into the station in the morning, but the waits in the evening are very long.
You don’t need big buses plying these routes all the time. In many cases regular mini-buses would be fine.
OGH and this thread referenced at Coffeehouse, which includes a clip from a couple of years ago, with Brown struggling to deal with rising fuel prices, after being questioned by Fern Britton
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5844438/brown-faces-the-horror-of-the-petrol-pumps.thtml
There is not much that can be doen before 6th May about a collapsing currency and nothing that can be done about China’s demand for oil (apart from maybe some anti dumping tariffs) but what ticks me off about the petrol price (and therefore obviously the majority of the population as I a reasonableness personnified) is the ever increasing tax element of the cost. We have had 3 tax increases this year and did not get the benefit of the VAT reduction on fuel as a result.
I think this is a chronically unfair and dishonest way of trying to increase revenue. It discourages economic activity, it is unrelated to profit and it gives an unfair advantage to cities in terms of the development of business.
I do not dispute for a moment that the Government needs all the tax it can generate but this is a well that has been dipped in rather too often.
182 - The point you dismiss as knockabout is the point that I regard as serious. Most of the time Labour and the Conservatives can’t even rustle up a single good idea between them. Unfortunately, the Lib Dems don’t add to the total either.
Good ideas are few and far between. George Bernard Shaw once said: “Few people think more than two or three times a year; I have made an international reputation for myself by thinking once or twice a week.” He probably overestimated the frequency of thoughts that either he or other people had.
203 Is your ‘o’ key sticking?
201 - The written word.
198 ‘I see sterling is up by a cent…’
Have unnamed British Institutions been buying at any price from 10AM? See redcliffe’s previous posts.
The pound is up one third of a cent since the markets closed yesterday.
193 Don’t you know they don’t post on threads they don’t like or when they do they try to distract us onto the topic favoured by the bunker.
204 - when in Rome….
Oh and you forgot to call me out on ‘liter’ too
But the numbers tell the story, however you spell it.
212
Obviously seen last night’s 3 polls where the Tory lead increased.
212 - And what happened since the markets closed yesterday?
Erm 3 polls showed the Tory lead increasing.
It is everyones patriotic duty to vote Tory.
201
Well he wrote it a few years back (he’s dead now sadly)
For centuries 90% of people never moved more than a few miles from where they were born throughout their entire short miserable lives. The explosion of possibilities brought about by mass personal freedom to travel was immensely significant. Worth a read anyway, also a fascinating history of early motoring technologies.
I remember with great affection the “great petrol strike” of 2000 summer and autumn. Then, the motor traffic on my commute by cycle between Bedford and Milton Keynes reduced to the level of maybe the late 1950s. As the weather was fine I could take circuitous routes home, relax considerably, and listen to the quiet sound of the countryside and the gentle rush of my tyres without the constant fear of being down from behind by a ‘phone user. About half of all the cars I could see were miserably queued up at petrol stations.
214 - When in Rome…. Act like a Visigoth?
206 - Oh god he was hopeless Fern isn’t exactly a Paxman.
214
Didn’t miss it, just had my benevolent hat on this morning.
Cheers
The £/$ rate is a bit more complex than just following polls surely…
Long term the £ is down a lot against a lot of currencies. Comparing it with the $, whilst relevant for oil, is not terribly instructive, since the USA is also running a terrifyingly gargantuan deficit.
Try comparing the £ with A$, CHF, even the rupee over a year.
The markets, they say “UKplc = fecked”
******HUNG PARLIAMENT, CLOSE ELECTION FORECAST BY EXPERTS*****
An International Symposium on
Methods and Models for
Election Forecasting:
the UK General Election of 2010
19th March & 20th March 2010
Chancellors Conference Centre
http://www.dcern.org.uk/documents/Forecasting.pdf
All FIVE independent studies arrive at the same conclusion
HUNG PARLIAMENT, CLOSE ELECTION, LABOUR WIN POSSIBLE
http://www.dcern.org.uk/news/
Re 145, 149, 158:
Sorry with this off topic point. But I have just, out of interest looked at ICM’s two previous polls and the percentages by socio-economic group are all over the shop. In the NoW poll (3rd-4th March) Labour trail the Tories by a massive 31 percentage points amongst ABs but lead amongst DEs - they also lead amongst C1s but trail amongst C2s.
The Telegraph (March 10th-11th) poll on the other hand is more even across the socio-economic groups although has the same basic structure as the NoW poll.
Of course these sub-groups are statistically quite small and these differences may even themselves out. But it is clear that last night’s poll had the Tory share propped up by a great showing in the DE group that seemed out of whack with other recent ICM polls.
Whether this means that the headlines are wrong or the DE showing is simply a sort of handy ‘compensation’ for a relatively poor showing in the ABs for the Tories is the question I think I was trying to ask earlier.
More students go on the game under Labour http://bit.ly/96Xnja
213 Norm…I only really post when they try to distract the thread..lots of fun.
Two european websites for information on the convergence programme and the stability and growth pact:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/convergence/programmes/2009-10_en.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/deficit/countries/uk_en.htm
The leaked draft commission report has not yet been published yet.
225 - so it’s not just the UK being f*cked then?
219 - can’t act at all Mr Eagles
He went apesh*t over ‘math’ - heaven alone knows what he’d do if I said ‘Atlanta’…..
How are the little eagles by the way - home yet?
223 There’s a conference on Homeopathic Election Forecasting? Whatever next.
According to Sky, Brownahs written to David Beckham to console him about his injury
FFS what on earth? has he not got better things to do?!??!
229 - The Eaglets are fine, they’ve been here since last wednesday.
They have developed this tag team approach to sleeping. One sleeps, the other one wakes up. We had a period, where at least one of them was up for 82 consecutive hours.
I do love them, they’d be perfect if they came with snooze buttons.
Ben Brogan follows OGH lead.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100030090/why-record-petrol-prices-are-good-for-the-tories/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Benedict Brogan has also picked up on Mike’s article today.
Why record petrol prices are good for the Tories
“I’m grateful to the all-knowing Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting for reminding us this morning of the link between petrol prices and polls. He’s produced this graph, which shows how Conservative fortunes rise with the cost of a litre at the pump.”
223 RodCrosby
ha ha ha bad timing for your groupthink w@nkfest after last night’s ICM poll showing a tory majority is very likely.
Also I am increasingly confident that no-one in their right mind will vote labour after the series of shambolic performances by Brown and a return to form for Cameron. I am forming a mental list of things to enjoy on election night, the demise of “swingback” is well up there.
Mark Senior exploding in an apoplectic rage is still top though
234 - snap!
233.Snap!
197 - Alanbrooke. I don’t necessarily disagree with you. But knowing the workings of the party better than you do, and the financial realities it faces, I struggle to see how it could do things differently.
223, hahaha.
The ‘experts’ at the Met office predicted a barbecue summer and mild winter.
The ‘expert’ Chancellor wrecked the economy.
The climate change ‘experts’ were caught fiddling the figures.
I trust the good folk of pb.com more than the ‘experts’.
231, take heart. The time Brown spent considering whether to contact Beckham and then doing it and then telling the press is time he wasn’t fcking about with the economy.
232, I am pleased to hear your eaglets are doing well.
223 Rod C - Clearly the election itself is just a formality:
‘‘Forecasting the 2010 election using horse race polling data’
Steve Fisher (University of Oxford),Robert Ford, Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Chris Wlezien (Temple University)
Never mind the price of petrol, what about the price taxpayers have and are paying to keep Labour MP’s being funded for elections etc.
From Guido comments today:-
“The Tories aren’t making enough of the money-laundering whereby the Labour government gives the unions 10 million quid for ‘political reform’ (modernisation) and then the union gives the Labour government 10 million quid back and gets to parachute in its placemen into safe seats.
This isn’t a Labour government at all. This is a KGB government which is why they’ve p*ssed away all the money and set the UK on the road to bankruptcy.
Which is why Labour apologists like tim and Ash are so desperate to re-write history.”
Comments like these if taken up by the the BBC,GMTV,Sky (Brown Broadcasting Corporation,Gordons Morning TV,Socialist Key Yeti’s), and properly pursued and given anything like the airtime given to Ashcroft with his piddling contribution to the tories, would see Labour well and truly stuffed with probably less MP’s than even the LibDems.
If we don’t want to end up like former soviet bloc countries, the media needs to get its act together.
223. FORECASTS
1. Lewis-Beck, Nadeau & Berlanger: “Labour 35% of the vote”
2. Whiteley et al: Con 293, Lab 283, LD 43
3. Sanders et al: Lab 288, Con 287, LD 46
4. Lebo & Norpoth: Con 311, Lab 265 (Jan 2010 forecast; Labour/Brown have improved since)
5. Rallings, Thasher, Borisyuk: Con 287, Lab 280, LD 51
How long will it take for the Tories to get the blame when petrol prices do not go down once they are in power? Judging by the Obama experience, they are going to find themselves taking all kinds of stick for all kinds of things very quickly.
225 Xenon - There’s a hilarious juxtaposition in that article:
He said high tuition fees had driven students to work as lap dancers and for chat lines and internet pornography.
The government said it provided “generous” financial support.
O/T and irrelevant.
Over the last few months I have noticed a few times that in coffee shops that sell newspapers, if the headline is bad for Labour, they have been turned round. This mornings Guardian with its tory poll lead and EU slapdown of Brown being an example.
Clearly there are still a few Labour die hards trawling cafes around the country and trying to hide the truth from the public!
243, nope. Obama was all positive, so when the world didn’t become lovely when he got office he got the blame. George W, for all his flaws, was very negative, so when he got in people didn’t expect to start farting rainbows.
No-one can truthfully claim to be an expert on this election as it’s qualitatively different from any we’ve ever seen.
And I’m sure if we look into their methodology we’ll find flaws as significant as believing that a Lab-SNP marginal in the Central Belt is exactly the same as a Lab-Con marginal in a METTH.
241 - Did you not see the BBC news or Newsnight last night? Labour was absolutely hammered for its links to UNITE.
211.EdP, check out Redcliffe’s earlier post today, he noted that they started earlier after sterling starting dipping.
246 - It happened to Mrs T in 80 and 81 as well.
The tories recovering in the polls, the MSM seeming to have finally seen the light, the sun is out, and it’s the start of the Cheltenham festival.
How could it get any better?
231
David Beckham,
just when I thought he might even come back from this injury…
242: All so so wrong.
251 - Spurs could win the FA Cup and qualify for the Champions League, while I could have a decent season playing cricket.
The one consolation of the Tories getting into power is that Tottenham Hotspur always does better under a Conservative government.
212/215/216 I wasn’t aware that PB was blessed with so many FOREX experts. I assume you are all contributing to the site from your secluded retreat living off the millions that you have earned from your expert FOREX soothsaying.
243, 246, 250. I think it is very likely that the Tories will be unpopular PDQ after the election. People dont like high taxes, they dont like high petrol prices and they dont like services being cut. All three are going to happen under the next government whoever wins and they will be really unpopular. I expect the Tories, having been a little upfront about the pain, will be slightly less unpopular than Labour would be if they win the election.
251
Mass case of botulism in the Palace of Westminster?
Well, it’d make me chortle…
242 Rod - Well I had a look at Rallings and Thrasher. What a load of tosh:
At the time of writing the current NEV estimate is showing Conservatives 36.3%, Labour 29.6% and Liberal Democrats on 25.0%. In preparing this general election forecast we assume, therefore, that a re-distribution of the current Liberal Democrat share is required. Without any current polling data to work from we assume from our experience of split-ticket voting that eight in ten current Liberal Democrat local by-election voters will remain loyal to the party at the general election; one in ten will switch to Labour while 6%, approximately one in 16, will vote Conservative. The adapted by-election model forecast, therefore, is Conservative 37.8%, Labour 32.1% and Liberal Democrats 20.0%. An assumption of uniform national swing converts these percentages into a House of Commons comprising Conservatives 287 seats (39 seats short of an overall majority), Labour 280 seats (46 seats short), Liberal Democrats 51 seats and other parties 32 seats. Of course, there are still some by-election votes still to be cast and we reserve the right for our final forecast to alter the algorithm for converting Liberal Democrat local support into that likely to be encountered at a general election.
In other words: “our model produces a result and then we stick our finger in the air and guess a totally different result - and even that we reserve the right to change”.
242. Well thats all right then isn’t it? The experts have spoken no need to have an election. Why not carve up the seats without the electorate having a say.
Or alternatively could it be that the experts are just buying in sheep-like to the latest Westminster Village group think…..
BAAAAA BAAAAA
[239] - I trust the good folk of pb.com more than the ‘experts’.
I think there are a number of people on pb.com who I would consider as “experts”.
Cash Gordon is alive!
http://twitpic.com/18×17t
Just waiting for Brian Blessed to appear…
242. Rod are you trying to convince us or yourself?
Re 258. Or it could be that our own resident Mystic Meg is spinning like a top again?
242
Sorry, Labour 35% of the vote? Just 1% lower than last time, with a cretin for a Prime minsiter and after the biggest recession for decades, and facing an opposition who have replaced Michael Howard with David Cameron (look at their poll ratings against each other). After Labour got 16% in the Euros?
Oh deary me you can’t seriously expect us to believe that?
258: Ahah..the old rubbished by-election model and UNS.
Ergo, it’s a load of crap.
255 - Currency speculation is great fun. Sadly none of us on here compare to pb’s best currency speculator.
Richie Rich.
266. I wonder what happened to His Itchiness. Did he become a busted flush per chance?
267 - Given the amounts he said he had backed, he’s had to take on a couple extra jobs to pay his losses.
Or perhaps he really has Falklands offed somewhere.
#194 Southam Observer
Many people would like to send the Mad Hatter Brown and his corrupt government to Coventry by way of any form of transport.
Ed Balls gets the Daily Mash treatment
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/balls-condemns-expert-for-knowing-stuff-201003162562/
NSB are you a new poster? If so welcome.
And what a great poster. I wonder if this is the ‘Labour isn’t working’ poster for the internet in this election.
http://twitpic.com/18×17t
Further to 258 - Even in their own terms that is palpable nonsense. What about the huge majority of people who don’t vote in local by-elections? Surely they need to allocate those to the three parties?
One wonders if this stuff has been peer-reviewed.
262. I’m not trying to convince anyone - the figures speak for themselves I would have thought.
BTW, if anyone is near Colchester at 5pm tonight there is a seminar by Matt Lebo (one of the above experts)
“The Pendulum Swings Back”
http://www.essex.ac.uk/government/research/seminars~conferences.shtm
I would be interested to hear of his latest forecast.
261, the Tories should, perhaps, delay that until the start of the GE, to guarantee it gets fair airtime.
260 I’m sure the betting markets will produce a much more accurate election forecast that these so called experts. A bit like people who host trading seminars where people can learn how to trade financial markets - they’re only doing that because they couldn’t make any money trading.
271. Thanks. The poster has impact, but do enough key voters know who Unite are?
276: Luckly the BA strike has put Unite right into the spotlight.. Poor old Gordon.
Rod if you have any influence could you get some of those so-called experts to back up their predictions with hard cash. It’ll be like taking sweets off a baby.
271 - easily countered by “Ash(croft)-Cameron”?
276. That’s your problem. Why doesn’t the poster just say “the unions”?
Much more powerful - and it has a savoury resonance of the 70s.
The prices at my local petrol station in rural North Devon are already 1.30 per litre. Nearest bus-stop is 12 miles away, so public transport is not an option either.
247 No one can claim to be an expert in predicting the future (unless they do the chrystal ball/chicken entrails stuff) at all. This swingback stuff has no claim to count as a theory. It is mainly self-evident: as far as I can see it will claim to be vindicated unless the tories get a better vote share than at any by election (or in any opinion poll even?) since 2005. Simple rules about probability and reversion to the mean will in all cases virtually guarantee that that will be the case, and it is a political cliche anyway (remember the tories saying “just a typical mid-term election result” after every single by-election 1992-7?)
If swingback claims to make interesting predictions it has to contend that chartism (which is basically what it is) is a significantly better predictor than real-world events. It therefore has to claim that say a stockmarket or housing market crash or revision of gdp figures showing we never came out of recession or a harsh budget or one of the party leaders being filmed with cocaine and prostitutes and claiming the cost on expenses would make no significant difference to the result (because presumably swingbackism does not claim to predict and make allowances for any of those possible events). So the electorate will in swingback theory look at any and all of those events and vote the way swingback predicts they will vote regardless, because it is their time of the electoral cycle, darling.
What grown up psephologists like rallings and thrasher are doing participating in this ludicrous mystic meggery I have no idea.
276 - I am not sure you are allowed to use Bank of England banknotes and coins in advertising. Isn’t there a rule saying you can’t?
279. People don’t care about Ashcroft. Not like they care about UNITE/Labour wrecking their holidays and buisness trips.
279, uh, no.
Labour has non-doms too. Ashcroft has given less than 1% (I think), Unite has given £11m in Brown’s tenure alone. And, as well as cash, they’ve helpfully donated (or loaned?) Mr. Harman, and scores of others.
280 - Which Tory union legislation has Labour repealed over the last 13 years?
283: I don’t think so SO. I’ve seen plenty of adverts which have wads of clearly BoE cash in them.
279. No it isn’t. Cashcroft has done zip for Labour’s poll ratings because the story has no emotional purchase - “obscure billionaire with obscure domiciliary status gives money to Tories”, shock horror, not.
“Militant unions give millions to Labour and then threaten strike which could ruin everyone’s Easter”: that resonates, and it reminds people of the bad old days.
The “dossier” on Unite and Labour:
http://issuu.com/conservatives/docs/cashgordon
273. RodCrosby.
With the recent entrants to the polling field, which ones are you currently including in your Kalman filter?
290. All of them except YouGov probably?
I’m still waiting for Rod’s excuse for eliminating ICM. Its coming, we all know it.
289: The tories using Whelan’s twitters against him. Brilliant.
286. True, but hardly the point.
I’m merely stating that the whole “labour = trade unions = strikes = declining Britain” meme is a very toxic one for the government, because it is.
And to drill right down into this exposed Labour nerve, Tories should use the phrase “the unions” rather than the word “Unite” which is weak and obscure.
289, taking its time to load…
Also, welcome to pb.com, NSB. Are those your initials, or do they stand for something else?
There is no finer sight on PB than that of Tory trolls on the run.
282. What happened to your “17-point leads can let us do what the f*** we like”, btw?
Oh dear, looks like the bad news at 223/242 has shifted Betfair back towards NOM.
292, once again, the Wisdom of Dave has been proven. Too many tweets do indeed make a Whelan.
Balls gets five mentions.
293, I agree, Mr. Thomas, that the Tories should quite often use the general ‘unions’ line than always mnetioning ‘Unite’. As you said, it brings back images of the 1970s.
296. RodCrosby.
No answer to 290?
Oh well Beckham’s career is over - Brown has just sent him a note wishing him well……
296. Do you really think you have that much power?
Liam Fox loses his appeal against having to repay 22,000 in expenses.
I expect we’ll see an infestation of bunkerbots PDQ.
298. I’m currently including none, since the t0ssers haven’t published their samples sizes/field dates.
Slightly O/T.
Count the number of totally disinterested faces in The Cloakroom Attendant’s karaoke debut.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e201310fa3e66d970c-500wi
Racing and Football Outlook has a small piece on page 4, in its Off The Bit column, on staff training by bookmakers.
OTB remembers the first general election of 1974 which resulted in a hung parliament.
On Thursday he called Ladbrokes to take the 7/4 about such an outcome happening in May.
“What’s a hung parliament?” replied Joan.
Politely, OTB put down the phone and tried again.
“What’s a hung parliament?” asked Malcolm.
While not wanting to single out the firm in question, you’d think they could bring their staff up to date on current affairs if they seriously want to bet on politics.
For the record, the thing to ask is: “What price is no overall majority?”
Anyway, good luck at Cheltenham, and on the petrol thread: yes, it’s the economy!
re254;
Southam Observer. I may not share your politics but I’m fully with you on the mighty Spurs. Things are looking good on both the league and cup fronts at the moment, but years of painful experience tells me not to get too excited yet. We need some midfielders back soon. Anyway, COYS.
301.
“Liam Fox loses his appeal……”
The empty set to us mathematical types.
Mission impossible, if you ask Natalie Imbroglia.
301, quite. I’m sure the BBC and Toenails especially will bang on about that.
What’s caused it to be such a large repayment?
O/T but worth mentioning. This is part of the report into the Union Modernisation fund the tax payers money given to unions to modernise. The unions of course then give money to Labour as well????
The report is a ‘yes prime minister’ beauty H/Tip Sir Digby well worth trying to read.
Sir Everard Digby says:
March 16, 2010 at 10:38 am
Just read the final evaluation report on this:
“The evaluation was unable to establish a formal, quantitative assessment of outputs. Indicators were available in relation to some ICT projects, in terms of increases in web usage and membership participation. Such indicators all showed improved levels of membership engagement. But, beyond this,inconsistency in project reportinging and the variable nature of much activity
and outputs, for example in relation to training investments, limits any aggregate quantification.
Nonetheless, it is evident that the UMF has stimulated an array of innovative activities and, in some cases, novel outputs within unions. This includes a wide-ranging research effort across unions and the implementation of new training programmes, for example around diversity issues, communications and general management approaches. And new institutions are emerging through the roles of equality representatives and new partnerships with employers.
In other words, no-one has a clue what the fuck this has delivered to modernise the unions but trust us,it’s really good.
and there is a qaungo which oversees the fund.”
302. RodCrosby.
That begs the question.
You’ve previously said you’re excluding ARPO — is this still the case, and which other organisations have you chosen to exclude?
I believe the full list of regular pollsters is now: ARPO, BPIX, ComRes, Harris, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Opinium, Populus, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.
296. Rod, it’s Unite putting up 6k at 2.88, in an attempt to persuade the betting markets to perpetuate talk of a hung Parliament that’s done it!
294. Initials, sadly I’m not inventive enough to think of anything more interesting!
The dossier is a good read. I’m a Conservative supporter myself and am glad something has been produced which joins the dots to create the full picture.
Also interesting to read a Lib Dem has written to the Electoral Commission, calling for Unite spending to be counted as Labour spending for the sake of the election campaign:
http://lansonboy.blogspot.com/2010/03/open-letter-to-jenny-watson.html
Blimey £6000 has just appeared to lay a hung parliament on Betfair
289. An excellent attack dossier from the Tories. This is much better: aggressive but lucid, subtle and wounding.
Whelan is a deeply unpleasant sample of rectal flora, I note he is yet another ex-communist at the top of the Labour party, along with Darling, Mandelson, Ainsworth et al. I further note that the excommunist Whelan is, through his ghastly union, funding another ex communist MP: our own Doctor Nick “Pol Pot” Palmer.
307 - Morris Dancer
The contentious claim, for £22,476.03, related to his decision to remortgage his second home to pay for redecorations and claim the higher interest repayments on his expenses.
He said his claims represented value for money because he could have charged the taxpayer for the decorating bills directly.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/16/liam-fox-loses-appeal-over-25000-mps-expenses-payback
@289 - I see our NPMP gets a mention as being bankrolled by Unite.
295. When we had, we could. And when we do again, we will.
Please briefly and coherently state the essence of swingback theory in a way which demonstrates that the objections in post 282 (that it is partly trivial and partly wrong) are without validity.
307 - One answer is he remortgaged his home essentially to get a claim for redecorations approved under mortgage interest. Another is he’s a trougher on a magnificent scale who shouldn’t be in the shadow cabinet.
@310 Also interesting to read a Lib Dem has written to the Electoral Commission, calling for Unite spending to be counted as Labour spending for the sake of the election campaign:
http://lansonboy.blogspot.com/2010/03/open-letter-to-jenny-watson.html
And so it should be.
311 A large order appearing at the prevailing market price doesn’t indicate any change of thought. If that 6k started hitting all the bids then that would - but I don’t think we’ll see that.
Southam Observer - I have liked your style since you first came on here - but now you say you’re a Spurs fan! God, if I can like you even after that revelation, then people really can cross seemingly uncrossable divides.
In that spirit, I hope you will join me in hoping the mighty Arsenal break up the recent duopoly of the debt ridden, anti-competitive, billionaires’ playthings that have dominated the Premiership over the past 6 years - for the sake of football of course…
re 302. Rod - wrong. All the data you want is available from ALL the new pollsters.
Again almost everything you say about polling is garbage. Don’t make statements on here that are untrue - you soon get found out.
313, daft bugger.
If Brown raises this at PMQs Cameron should point out Brown’s had to repay £15k or so himself.
310/317, cunning move. Who would have thought the Lib Dems capable of it?
312.
“I note he is yet another ex-communist at the top of the Labour party, along with Darling, Mandelson, Ainsworth et al.”
And don’t forget the mighty Pickles! And David Aaronovitch! Mad Mel Phillips and Peter Hitchens were both screaming lefties too, were they not? Perhaps we should shoot all former commies?
Where is that Cash Gordon poster likely to be displayed, if anywhere?
307/316 - The thing is, Jeremy Browne, appealed on the similar grounds and won his appeal?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7095615/MPs-expenses-Jeremy-Browne-successfully-appeals-against-repayment-demand.html
MPS Associates has just completed it’s 1st 100% voting intention survey .
By repeated visits over the last 4/5 weeks it has surveyed all the people on the electoral roll in one street in Worthing . The voting intention form containing the names of the 5 candidates and party descriptions so far declared was completed by each voter and placed in a mock ballot box .
Result - On electoral roll 224 moved or died 18 new residents not on roll 17 completed forms 206
Eng Dem 1 ( from comments this is likely to be an SNP supporter living down here )
UKIP 12
Labour 19
Conservative 86
Lib Dem 88
Note all the properties are 1 or 2 bedroom purpose built flats in a marginal Con/LibDem ward narrowly gained by the Libdems in the CC elections last year .
320. OGH.
I think Rod should meditate on the lesson of Proverbs 16:18. I recommend the God’s World translation (1995).
@302, you did include the first Opinium survey though IIRC. We had a conversation about it.
Constan Treader @282: “[Swingback] therefore has to claim that say a stockmarket or housing market crash or revision of gdp figures showing we never came out of recession or a harsh budget or one of the party leaders being filmed with cocaine and prostitutes and claiming the cost on expenses would make no significant difference to the result…”
Before the US primaries I’d have had pretty much the same reaction as you. If Rod’s right, that implies the whole industry of punditry about who’s up and who’s down is a complete waste of space.
But what was amazing about those elections - and a contested US primary gives you a whole series of chances to test predictions against reality - is that despite all the gaffes, missteps, fight-backs and strategic triumphs, the results tracked very closely to the spreadsheet that Rod posted after only a couple of primaries. And every time there was a win or a loss, each time as predicted in the spreadsheet, the media managed to come up with explanations for the results based on the events and strategies they’d been breathlessly reporting - events that hadn’t happened when the spreadsheet was compiled.
That’s still not enough evidence to believe a theory as bold as Rod’s, but I think it should be enough not to reject it out of hand. If Swingback correctly predicts the vote shares at the next election, it’ll start to get believable…
322 - as was Simon Heffer, apparently.
A few well-aimed bullets may not be a bad idea.
302. RodCrosby. Splendid, that frees up some time for you to answer the uestion at 315.
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2010/03/Michael_Gove_Charlie_Whelans_new_militant_tendency.aspx
320. Go back to sleep, Gramps. I’m still waiting for YouGov and Opinium.
Your blundering attacks would be better directed at them, not me!
322. I agree, we may need to get Pinochet on their Pol-Pot-loving commie arses, at some point. But for now I prefer a milder approach of ceaseless verbal abuse.
317 - Good luck with that one Kristin.
Are you lobbying for all Countryside Alliance spending to be counted as Tory election spending?
325: And what does this prove?
MPs grilling KRAFT liveblog - worth a read !
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/16/kraft-cadbury-takeover-mps
326. Word, not World! I miss the edit function…
323 anonymous and dangerous
If they have any sense, then on the internet, plus maybe one billboard in Outer Nowhere is enough. That will be enough to get it on TV.
@334 - all spending during an election campaign should be included if it spent by a donor to a party.
334: How many MP’s are bankrolled by countryside alliance? Have they given £11m to the tories and are spending the same themselves on campaigning directly for them?
I expect better of you tim.
[311] - Out of interest RodCrosby, but what is the range of your swingback prediction? Alternatively, what range of results would you consider to be incompatible with your model?
How high does the Tory* lead need to be for you to be “mistaken”?
* Or indeed Labour if the swingback is larger than that predicted by the model…
Rod - cheers for the links. I didn’t have the time to trawl up to Manchester but there are some interesting papers being given, so I was hoping they’d turn up online.
332 - If you look here
http://www.opinium.co.uk/surveyreports/opin-VotingIntention-103012.pdf
Sample size: 1951
Field Dates: 12th to 15th March 2010
and
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results_15.03-trackers.pdf
YouGov / The Sun Survey Results
Sample Size: 1466 GB Adults
Fieldwork: 14th - 15th March 2010
320. Mike - I ‘found you out’ about a ‘correction’ (made fairly forcefully) you made of my post re telephone polling also finding too many previous Tory supporters a few weeks ago. I posted my evidence - and…silence. I know it is your site, and people shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds and all that, but sometimes you (like us all) talk ‘garbage’ too.
332. RodCrosby.
So you’re including YouGov and Opinium but, at he last count, excluding ARPO.
Once again, Rod, please answer the question:
You’ve previously said you’re excluding ARPO — is this still the case, and which other organisations have you chosen to exclude?
I believe the full list of regular pollsters is now: ARPO, BPIX, ComRes, Harris, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Opinium, Populus, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.
335 Nothing LOL . The one interesting thing is that there was not one paper marked Won’t Vote or spoilt though I expect several voters will not bother to walk to the polling station on GE day .
332 - You really are incredibly rude and disrespectful
334 ‘The Countryside Alliance’
Careful there tim. I dare say your mate Charlie Whelan is a member; if not he should be, the amount of shooting and fishing he manages to brag about on Twitter.
334…Tim is back…yahoo..got time to answer a few questions Tim?
re 332. Bollocks again Mr Ignorant. This has been up on the Opinium site for several hours.
Scroll down to get the detailed data.
http://opinium.co.uk/surveyreports/opin-VotingIntention-103012.pdf
338 - expect most voters won’t actually see it unless it’s on billboards.
Quite a powerful image though, and does serve as an illustration about what voters think of MPs generally
It appears that Sterling’s fall is a major factor behind rising petrol & diesel prices. But there are other losers in Sterling’s decline. Anyone holidaying abroad for example.
However the really big losers are British expats living abroad. Does anyone have any estimates of the number of expats who voted at the last GE?
According to this BBC website (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6210358.stm), over 5.5 million live abroad, but no figures available for those who registered for a vote back in Blighty. You would have thought that Sterling’s steep devaluation since the last GE to have a major influence on the way these expats would vote, especially for the many expats in France and Spain relying in whole or in part on a UK source of income, eg pension or investments.
For example, at the 2005 GE, Sterling was still doing reasonably well on the Forex markets, with interbank rates in the region of:
€1.47
Australian $2.44
New Zealand $2.59
Canadian $2.37
Compare that with what you would get today………… http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm
Some will say that Sterling has been here before in the 90s and will quote the £ / US$ figures. However when you look at how much Sterling has depreciated against other major currencies, such as the Euro and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars, that you see just how trashed our currency is now. From what I’ve researched, at no time in the 90s, even after the ERM debacle, was Sterling EVER so low against these other currencies, and by the time of the 1997 election, the Pound had already recovered most of its lost ground against other currencies, eg 9.45 French Francs (equivalent to about €1.44).
Of course I’m sure Brown doesn’t give a toss about expats and sees them as totally expendable After all, in his eyes they have abandoned his utopian paradise. So a short GE campaign would help by making it as difficult as possible for these expats to get their postal votes in on time.
But it’s not just current expats who are likely to be disaffected. According to a recent survey (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7020009.ece) , 42% of Brits would like to emigrate if they could. With the current level of Sterling it is difficult enough already for people to sell their modest house in the UK for a place in the sun. But if Sterling continues heading south, the dreams of all but the Quangocrats and Toynbees of this country will be well and truly scuppered. The thought of being imprisoned forever on these islands with no realistic aspiration of escaping to sunnier climes should be enough in itself to mobilise many votes for the blue team.
So why are the Tories not making more of this open goal?
322. Actually, it’s interesting to hypothesise a Britain where these communists never existed in the first place - would it have been a better place?
Go on, try it. Imagine a Britain without Peter Mandelson, Bob Ainsworth, Alistair Darling, Arthur Scargill, Melanie Phillips, Derek Hatton, Tony Woodley, Peter Hitchens, David Aaronovitch, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, Charles Clarke. etc etc etc.
It would be an unquestionably finer country. Just.. nicer. Fresher. Better.
& to 350 YouGov is here
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results_15.03-trackers.pdf
Victoria Derbyshire berating Clarke for lack of detail on Conservative financial plans!
305 - The most important attribute Spurs need between now and the end of the season is mental stregth. That’s what we have missed for far too long. Too often when the going gets tough the Spurs go missingh., If Harry can turn that around I reckon we’ll do it.
319 - Tragically, I think Arsenal may win the PL this season; they have the big mo. I can think of no circumstances under which that would make me feel anything other than utterly depressed. A billionaire or anyone else who can prevent it would get my strong backing.
354 - Mike be gentle, he’s in denial about the anti-swingback taking place.
It’s hard to have your dreams shattered.
Ken Clarke getting an absolute savaging on Radio 5. The Tory supposed “big hitter” can’t even hold his own on daytime chat radio on economic detail.
354: Much less weighting on that YouGov.
£5.6k @ 2.88 to lay NOM - that should hold the price steady for a day or three.
£1.76 k @ 1.69 Con maj.
Reminds me of the LD leadership contest or test cricket markets - herding of the price.
YouGov weighting adjustment from Conservative to Labour
22/02 +14.61%
23/02 +20.15%
24/02 +21.28%
25/02 +18.81%
01/03 +3.35%
02/03 +14.89%
03/03 +10.60%
04/03 +30.08%
08/03 +37.77%
09/03 +24.05%
10/03 +15.95%
11/03 +11.29%
12/03 +15.43%
15/03 +3.31%
Date = poll completion date
358: Hello Ben.
“Go back to sleep, Gramps.”
“Bollocks again Mr Ignorant”
Classic -
358 - were you listening to a different Radio 5?
356. So, even Michael Ashcroft? Would that finally be the way to get you to vote Tory?!
Petrol £1.18 and Diesel £1.19 at BP Ilford as of this morning.
363 - Do you even need to ask the question. He will hear what he wants to.
342. You’re welcome Anthony. I hope you can host a sensible discussion of them on UKPR…
352 - I am not sure that saying that we need to protect the pound’s value so that ex-pats can live more comfortably is going to be a huge vote winner.
The Tories are not arguing for a strong pound as such, I would be surprised if they want one at this stage. Their focus is on the AAA rating, which is slightly different. Whatever happens it seems to me that the pound will be relatively low against most currencies - and especially the Euro - for a while.
I just looked into the guts of the UKPR average, seeing as how Gabble was trumpeting it last night.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-polling-report-average
The latest YouGov is being weighted at 0.93 and the latest ICM (one day earlier) at 0.77.
Well as of april, I wont give a rats arse about fuel prices. I’m getting a fuel card from work.
328 Well, ok-ish. But let’s have a concise statement of what ST predicts and why, and why if the result is tory maj 20-30 (as I expect) ST predicts that (if it does) more securely than my method of examining the entrails of dead slugs.
And secondly if ST predicts GE results from opinion polls, a fortiori it should have no problem predicting opinion polls from opinion polls. Why does RC crow when a poll suits his model, rather than modestly point to his accurate predictions of what the poll was going to show? Why does he have to wait and ambush me later over my admittedly over exuberant remarks about 17 point poll leads? Surely he should have been able to say at the time that the 17 point lead was nothing to get excited about, ST had always predicted something of that order, and it was nailed on that the next but one ICM would have the lead down to 7?
The Wrath of Crosby:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/04/is-there-anything-to-learn-from-jan-2005-polls/#comment-1369897
371: Becuase Rod is an arse?
373. Slackbladder.
Sounds about right. He’s today twice failed to answer a trivial question and I can’t imagine why.
358
Victoria Derbyshire couldn’t savage anything.
“Bollocks again Mr Ignorant”
Seems O’H is missing his G.
373 Slack. Talking of ‘arse’ only a day before I roll out the full ‘Jack W Election Service’ replete with maximum exposure of my ARSE !!
Tick tock ….
377: Lets hope it’s better tha JARHEAD eh?
374. “He’s today twice failed to answer a trivial question.”
Sorry, I don’t have time to answer trivial questions - that I’ve answered ad nauseam previously - for the amusement of trolls.
I’ve far more important things to do, like identifying the 20 seats which will decide the election, and suggesting a strategy for the parties therein.
Keep watching…
Just a bit of trivia on the Yougov poll.
For the first time yesterday the unweighted Party ID’s were something like what they were during 2009. There was a big uptick in the unweighted Labour ID’s and of course on such a day there was there was a spike in the Libdem figure (it was the biggest uplift in the Libdem weighted ID figure so far in the series) and the Labour figure went down. Go figure???
16. Richard Tyndall I hope you had your tngue firmly in cheek when you wrote that. I know you are rightly proud of your lunacy but some things are just too silly to be taken in any way seriously.
No way José. It’s serious. It’s really, really serious. FWIW, I think we’re in the middle of another mass extinction episode and I think it’s already too late.
129. GIN I see John the Loony declared war on me in the previous thread! Should I be worried?
War? Moi? A mild inoffensive delicate flower like me, war? No no no, you deranged and insane maniac. I was merely expressing surprise at the fact that someone who frequents a political anorak website seemed to have so little understanding of how a general election works. There is a time for candidates to be nominated. Then, people vote on which candidate they want. Whoever has the most votes wins. That process is not abandoned or delayed just because someone happened to die a few weeks earlier, or because a particular group can’t agree on who their candidate might be.
378 Slack. Your Devon accent is a treat !!
358 Ash..you miss the point..the conservatives dont have to give any answers until after the budget…is that so difficult…they might feel slightly pressured if there was a GE date called but I have not seen one yet.
152 Tabman I just think the LibDem party is a waste of space, filled with people who dont actually believe in anything which might require decisive action to be taken and frankly are as influential in British political and social affairs as my 3 month old puppy. I have lived all my adult life in constituencies with LibDem MPs and they achieve zero, zilch, nothing. they are at best ignored by the ruling party and at worst laughed at. They dont even make good councillors. My LibDem councillor has been asking the roads department to give me a salt bin at the end of my drive for over a year and even after the worst winter in 30 years, no salt bin.
People can say what they like about the Tories and Scotland but under Margaret Thatcher and John Major we saw around 2 hours shaved off the journey between Glasgow and Inverness because of the huge improvements to the A9. We had Tory MPs in Perthshire and Ross-shire for part of that time. Since 1997 the total improvement to the A9 has been the much welcomed Ballinluig flyover and 2, one mile crawler lanes, one on either side of Kingussie.
LibDems = generally nice people who are a total waste of space when it comes to getting anything done.
re376;
Be fair, he was just responding in kind to a less than genial attack on himself
379. RodCrosby: Sorry, I don’t have time to answer trivial questions - that I’ve answered ad nauseam previously
Actually, you haven’t as far as I can recall commented on whether you’re including TNS-BMRB or Harris. I can infer from this thread that you’re including Opinium.
And it would have taken you less time to answer the question than to type that post.
I can only conclude that you’re including nine pollsters but excluding ARPO. Come on. Take a few seconds to answer yes or no.
382: It’s a mix between Hampshire and Somerset, Dorset’s close enough
Constan Treader @371: “if S[wingback] T[heory] predicts G[eneral] E[lection] results from opinion polls…”
It doesn’t. It predicts GE results from by-elections.
It would be nice if Rod was a bit friendlier in answering questions about what he’s saying, but if you’re going to try to refute his theory you should probably go back and read the posts where he explains what it is first…
12 Yup. But try explaining to a lefty that those big nasty oil companies are not making any money in petrol. ‘Obscene profits’ they scream when the results come out. If only it were true.
by Patrick March 16th, 2010 at 7:19 am
Spot on Patrick!
The vast majority of the fuel price is government tax. The fuel tax is something Darling desperately needs to increase to pay down the debt but ironically desperately also wants to reduce as well for the approach to the GE. If a reduction or a deferrment occurs on the budget then the markets would just rip him and his party to shreds for @rse paper just as the EU have now done to to Brown only yesterday over his so called fiscal policies built on the foundations of deceptions and lies.
“What tangled webs we weave when we practice to deceive”
Its over they might just as well throw the towel in now as armageddon surely awaits if they dont and probably does for them even if they do. A Lose /lose situation for Labour all round.
Oh dear, what a pity, never mind.
And the real reason that Rod won’t answer the question? Because he knows — and he knows that we know — that he’s changed his stated reason for excluding ARPO on at least one occasion, and that he’s never admitted his real reason for excluding it; namely, that he doesn’t like the answers it’s giving.
There is no logical justification for exuding ARPO but including, for example, Opinium.
384 Easterross. An entirely impartial and disinterested analysis of the yellow peril !!
Next Easterross discusses the wonders of a certain ex Glasgow Labour Councillor !!
At 10 am the UK institutions threw the nuclear weapon cavalry at the pound and it rose by 1.4c Australia in 1 hour. Over 1c USD.
So 4 days in a row. Accident, no. Coincidence, no. daily occurrence now, yes.
Total manipulation of the currency and an attempt to bolster the pound artificially.
Without this conmtrived effort the pound would be at an all time low like last week if not more.
I struggle to believe this is anyuting other than a plan to pretend the pound is not a sbad as it is.
I repeat, nobody but British institutions are buying it, not the Japs, or Americans or any of the Europeans, so this is only to put a gloss on reality.
I think if there was not the pressure to support on a daily basis
the pound would find its natural position and place, on the bottom of my shoe.
Hands up all those who think pound will rise at 10am tomorrow? If the sun rises so will the pound if this manipulation is continued.
Easterross - there are t*ssers and well as stars in all parties and a whole lot of others in between.
I’ve far more important things to do, like identifying the 20 seats which will decide the election, and suggesting a strategy for the parties therein.
Keep watching…
by RodCrosby March 16th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Rod, it’s really quite sad to see comments like this. It just highlights your delusion. What you do is not important in any way shape or form. Nobody cares what you think, you are no more informed than anybody else that uses this board. You are tolerated in the same way that batty old aunties are tolerated, no more no less.
388. EiT.
I would also help if Rod didn’t endlessly talk about swingback when talking about opinion polls unfavourable to the Tories.
(Naturally, he never comments on opinion polls favourable to the Tories.)
I have read his theory. He claims that an SNP-Lab marginal in the Central Belt is exactly as important as a Con-Lab marginal in a METTH. It’s so clearly nonsensical it barely needs rebutting.
380 LibDem Party Iders were still undersampled by Yougov by 25% yet they were weighted up by only 6% .
379 And no doubt the dog ate your spreadsheet.
Surely there is a standard statement of swingback theory you could copy ans paste for us?
391
And how long can they continue buying?
Who is going to cut’n'run first?
396. Constan Treader: Surely there is a standard statement of swingback theory you could copy ans paste for us?
I can do that.
The Con-Lab swing at the general election will be less than the combine Con-Lab swing of the parliamentary by-elections since the previous general election.
That’s it, and for the reasons I point out at 394, it’s nonsense.
Rod even once claimed that swing can only be calculated between Con and Lab, which shows how stuck in the past he is.
394 - Let’s not knock swingback, according to Rod it is showing a tory victory at the GE
His benchmarks for the Crewe & Nantwich by election, which the Tories exceeded.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/30/will-it-be-all-change-at-crewe-on-may-22nd/#comment-648917
396: The ’swingback’ theory is as I understand it, the swing to the tories will be less than the average swing in the combined by elections in that parliment.
The fact that there have been considerably more by-elections in scotland, including two in glasgow, and there have been only 2 reasonable by-elections in England since Brown took office (C+N and Norwich North, both won by the tories on a good swing) doesn’t register with Rod.
Hague and Ashcroft can refuse to be called before the Parliamentary Select Committee
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/03/lord-ashcroft-inquiry-witness-latest.html
Early Warning as asked for by Gordon Brown is given to Gordon Brown. Brown now Of course knows better
Where’s the Swingback guys?
2001 vs 1997 - 1.75% Labour to Tory swing
2005 vs 2001 - 3.05% Labour to Tory swing
(Hope I calculated those right!)
399 “Let’s not knock swingback, according to Rod it is showing a tory victory at the GE”
Is that the definition of a good theory (and / or poll) on pb.c? If it predicts a tory GE victory then it should be lauded - if it calls that assumption into question, then it is to be attacked and ridiculed?
400. Slackbladder.
And the other clear flaw is that there’s an outstanding byelection in the midlands that Labour was too scared to call. It’s reasonable to suggest that had that byelection been held, the average swing would have gone up, thus (by the theory) increasing the Tories’ chances of winning the general election.
It’s truly laughable when you think about it. Just like Rod’s treatment of the various polling companies for his polling average. Sad that someone so potentially useful can be so tainted by political bias - the very archetype of the triumph of hope over expectation.
Courtesy of Old Holborn, not for the faint of heart, Dolly and Whelan in a display of homoeroticism.
http://bit.ly/crcmQY
bono,
When Brown is in panic mode tis may continue, but it is costing huge sums as the buying of a devaluing currency against the grain is not commercially sensible.
If Brown lets the pound continue to devalue and the currency link is proven he is dead, so this is just expensive hysteria.
This assumes brown cares where the institutions are being advised what to do.
I am sure we can expect Lloyds and RBS amongst others to act entirely commercially……and not make decisions due to 3rd parties.
bono, Happy to send you the charts to confirm this.
This will give you a good clue though……..
http://www.ozforex.com.au/cgi-bin/intewractive-forex-charts.asp
Paul, irony not your thing?
foregt the “w” in “interactive” though…………….
391 - what kind of money is being ‘invested’ (to use the government’s word) in this artificial propping up exercise?
404, the only pollsters that’ve been subject to criticism are Mori and ComRes for wild variation, and YouGov for a wacky methodological change.
It’s worth remembering that many anti-Labour types, including me, found the 28pt Tory lead laughable (albeit amusingly so). IT isn’t just short lead outliers that get mocked.
This was from November last year; how wonderfully accurate it turned out to be:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00648/TTM212301CC_RGB_ONL_648429a.jpg
Also, check out the Mandybanana awesomeness:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00645/TTM142101CC_RGB_ONL_645175a.jpg
404. Paul Lloyd.
No.
I am appalled by these revelations about UNITE and Charlie ‘Militant’ Whelan. How has it been allowed that one unio now cotrols not only the Labour Party but the Government as well. It is shocking that it is pulling the strings of some many ministers. It is outrageous that it has bought so many MPs and it is utterly intolerable that they have also bout 59 candidacies for £11 million, Is this what Labour think democracy is about? Buying a party?
Labour should be thrown out of the election!
Apologies but I just had to do that. I wanted to know what it felt like to be Ash or Lilly or Benny Tellytubby or the other baby bunker bots and I suppose that is the closest I could get without risking being infected and losing all credibility.
Anyhow I do hope that the Electoral Commission undertakes a full investigation of the relationship between UNITE and Labour because I agree that any spend by Unite on the lection should be counted as Labour spend. The two organisations politically are barely distinguishable……
404 - No Paul, I don’t believe in swing back, i was pointing out that it seems Rod seems to be making up as he goes along.
He said if the swing in the C&N by election was more than 15% it would be probably be a tory majority at the GE. When the tories achieved IIRC a near 17/18% swing, he backtracked, with some spurious arguments about personal vote of Gwyneth Dunwoody.
I refuse to believe the outcome is pre-ordained because a few thousand voters in a safe labour seat in Scotland, voted Labour in a by-election 2yrs before the GE.
406, what a pair of cretins.
408. No I do irony.
172 Chris I did point out that they did bugger all when in they were in Government in Scotland for 8 years and even had the Transport Secretary who is now their Scottish leader. they managed to pay to resurface the M8 at a cost of around £1 billion but then it passes through around 25 Labour held constituencies!
Can anyone think of a boyish hole in the logic to Ken Clarkes new exposition of Tory economic policy.
“it would be reckless to say what we will do but I have presented budgets before”
419. The phrase “boyish hole” is most unfortunate.
Also, I think this is the first time Scarfe has drawn Clegg:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00696/SCARFE_696740a.jpg
A touch of the David Steel about him
406 - Where is my rifle?
390 Jack I dont need to rant about the member for Twickenham. He fits within the description I have already given but of course given the chance he will lead the LibDems into coalition with his real party
QT looks interesting tonight though I think on balance it is a missable one.
Andrew Lansley, Caroline Lucas, Mother Beckett, Charlie Kennedy and Starkey Staring Mad.
420. Freudian perhaps?
Wow - just read the Tories dossier on UNITE - crikey - I had no idea they were so plugged in
I knew they gave shed loads of cash but the level of campaigning, sponsored MPs, PPCs is frankly pretty frightening for an ordinary voter like me.
I was worried about Gordon getting back in as he’s an idiot but if he does he’ll have a UNITE controlling/influencing a huge level of the Party.
For a point of clarification, i need the opinions of the good folk of Pb.com
What exactly is the threshold for a Tory Landslide
100+ seat majority
10%+ Lead in the actual GE?
Something else
352 one thing is for sure, anyone holidaying this year , like i did , will feel the full pain of the devaluation. I am fortunate in that i could holiday away but it was painfully expensive & i was left thinking maybe i shouldn’t have. 50% more expensive than to the same destination a couple of years ago for lower classed hotels and restaurants. Glad for the break but v costly so no more holidays this year. God knows how people taking a whole family away on an average income cope.
I guess Brown’s camp would say to me “If you can afford to go on holiday you are obviously privelaged and have nothing to complain about.
but the sad fact is in today’s Britain, fewer people can afford that 2 week foreign trip.
424 - I know my body clock is a bit of.
Is it Thursday already?
I genuinely do ask that.
419 You’re in a hole right now. You hate the Tories, can’t see yourself voting LibDem but you’re embarrassed by 13 years of New Labour incompetence. You must be spinning like a top!
419…Hello Tim (tw) No..can you ..you have obviously been busy at the briefings today .. what can we expect to pop up in the next couple of hours that wont be too good for the bunker..
424, hurrah for Starkey! I hope he’s on blisteringly acidic form.
The others…. bleh.
Lansley is a plank. Lucas irritates the f@ck out of me, smarmy communist self-righteous creature. Beckett’s a bit irksome but not too bad. Kennedy’s a big plus for the Lib Dems, a huge improvement on the non-entity Jo Swinson.
427. TSE.
100+ majority is the usual criterion.
The basis of the incestuous relationship between UNITE and The Labour Party and guess which one is on top!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/charlie-whelans-new-militant-tendency.pdf
re 358 Ash too slow, they’ll be docking your wages as your fellow bot Amaryllis beat you to it.
The Screaming Eagles @415: “He said if the swing in the C&N by election was more than 15% it would be probably be a tory majority at the GE.”
I think we’ve been over this before, but a less excitable reading of those comments would be that if the swing in the C&N election was more than 15%, the evidence from that particular by-election would be that there was going to be a Tory majority at the general election.
That’s different from saying, “Until now I’ve been making predictions based on average by-elections, but this C&N by-election is going to be a really, really good one, so I’m going to throw out all the other by-election results and just focus on this one.”
OT. The Power2010 pressure group is about to engage in direct action against MPs who they feel have overstepped the line. Their first target is Harrow E’s Tom McNulty. Based on suggestions from Power2010’s supporters, he emerged as the one they’d most like to see the back of.
To quote from an e-mail I received:
After we send our open letter to McNulty, we’ll be taking out full page ads, sending teams of volunteers to his constituency, and distributing tens of thousands of leaflets.
Not sure what resources they have, but if they can spread across the UK in seats like Harrow E with maj of < 5,000 they may make a difference to who wins and who doesn’t.
Link http://www.power2010.org.uk/openletter
427, a landslide depends on seats. I’d say 100+.
429 - Aargh, sorry saw a tweet from bbcquestiontime and got ahead of myself
henrymacrory
Am hearing that Govt has performed embarrassing u-turn over dog tax following successful Conservative campaign
If so then that’s one down
434 I’m delighted that the Tories have made it *personal* against Whelan.
He’s a toad that does politics no good - what goes around comes around.
433 - Thanks LondonStatto, I’ve been asked by a friend to quantify what exactly Dockside Hooker territory equals in terms of majority and vote share.
440 Plato
He’s a toad
Are you being civil?
439: tim will be disapointed. He was looking forward to a good dog crushing session.
Just catching up.
Good to see events, polls, Seant and Bob are turning back in our direction.
TSE - hope your Pudsey based friends will be voting for Stuart Andrew. He’s a corker of a bloke. Everyone loves Stuart.
435. EiT: That’s different from saying, “Until now I’ve been making predictions based on average by-elections, but this C&N by-election is going to be a really, really good one, so I’m going to throw out all the other by-election results and just focus on this one.”
Maybe he should have done, as that was the first proper Con-Lab marginal by-election of the parliament.
438 - It’s ok, I’m looking forward to seeing David Starkey. I hope Margaret Beckett has to pull out at the last minute and she is replaced by Ben Bradshaw.
403.
“Where’s the Swingback guys?”
here…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
443. I heard a rumour that he’d already filled out his application to be Superior Mutt Executioner General (SMEG)…
Oh dear what a shame never mind……..
354/360/380: Interesting, as jsfl notes this one had a much larger Labour unweighted sample (in fact, contrary to 360, it looks to me as this one had to downweight Labour and upweight the Tories?), and this was a poll that after weighting showed Labour slightly down. This seems to be evidence in favour of YouGov’s approach and suggests that their weighting is not distorting the outcomes.
Secondaries show a near-tie on most issues except immigration and crime, on which the Tories maintain their usual lead. And once again the leader rating is Brown=conviction, Cameron=charisma, all three otherwise rated very low on absolutely every count. Clegg’s ratings are presumably partly depressed by lack of recognition so he might pick up (though this was directly after Spring Conference coverage).
435: Possibly better than thinking that Glasgow North East was just as important an indication of the general election than C+N is/was.
444 - Sadly I don’t know any voters in Pudsey. They are mostly either Leeds seats, Morley & Outwood, Wakefield, Shipley and Richmond.
444. Indeed. Pudsey is one of THE standout Conservative campaigns, in my opinion. Ditto South Ribble.
446 - seeing someone as vain as Bradshaw being taken down a great big pile of notches was one of the best things I’ve seen on QT in many years. It just won’t be the same with Beckett, but no doubt the good Professor will say something spectacularly yet brilliantly inappropriate.
So, basically a reinvention of reversion to the mean (itself the most boring statistical theory in the universe).
Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig, es ist nicht einmal falsch!
415 - I sometimes think that this whole swingback narrative is a bit like a game of Mornington Crescent, incorporating Tudor Court Rules, but without Trumpington’s Variations
446 - Ok, i need some mind bleach.
Never did i think I would i would have a post that included the words
I hope, Ben Bradshaw, pulls out, and Margaret Beckett
in it.
435. The words I used were “on course” for a majority.
In the same way that the Titanic was “on course” for New York.
453 - It was up there with Ian Hislop and Mary Archer a few years ago.
428. Not sure they will JanesA. If they are going on holiday today. compared with a year ago the pound is a couple of cents up on the Euro and compared to the USD it is ten cents up.
Of course, if people are holidaying in Australia or other long-haul destinations then they will notice the difference, but the majority of people will be taking holidays in the Eurozone or the USA.
453 - something like shut up you grizzled old hag?
381. Its all good John.
After seeing the insults flying between OGH and lovely RodCrosby I see what a real PB war is.
457 - I was given the nickname “titanic” by two different people at uni, for two entirely different reasons.
442 - I was restraining myself and it was the first non ******* word that sprang to mind - he looks like one.
I used to listen to him on R5 a lot when Julian Worricker did the Sunday politics prog - he was always bashing Mandy/pro Gordon and seemed fairly harmless and juvenile. The more I’ve discovered. the more I think he is worse/more dangerous than McBride.
449. Nick Palmer.
This seems to be evidence in favour of YouGov’s approach and suggests that their weighting is not distorting the outcomes.
Not at all. All it suggests is that when Yougov get an unweighted sample that is proportional to its Party ID weightings then it performs in exactly the same way that it has done since 2005. However, what it does not do it prove is whether those weighting are still accurate or not and not out of date. It could be that Yougov has been ‘out’ for some considerable time….
452 That’s good to hear Kratz. I don’t know much about the campaign. I know I’ll be gutted if he doesn’t get in.
457.
Come off it, Rod. You posted that because you didn’t expect the swing to be over 15%.
438, premature posting affects a lot of young men, xenon. It’s nothing to be ashamed of.
Re 464 However, what it does not do it prove is whether = However, what it does not do is prove whether……
Doh!
428 but the sad fact is in today’s Britain, fewer people can afford that 2 week foreign trip.
Yes it’s not for the many, but the few.
Hang on, that sounds familiar
Brown has already delivered on his campaign slogan…
467 - There’s no such thing as premature typing, it’s not his fault we all cant keep up with his pace.
Cameron took a hell of a risk addressing those “students” in front of the media at the Lewisham College yesterday.
I would hazard a guess that none of the audience had even the slightest interest in politics, have no intention of voting and only watch the news when one of their dodgy mates is killed following a high speed police chase.
The questions and comments emanating from them demonstrated that their political education came as a result of inadvertently picking up Gordon Brown soundbites whilst flicking between Trisha and Jeremy Kyle.
Starkey vid (Denham, not Bradshaw): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em1sYyg5JyU
Best ever question at 4.15.
Swingback , it is self evident that an opposition party will do less well in the GE than it did in the byelections in the preceding parliament therefore swingback will occur . However it is stretching things way too far to conclude that the amount of such swingback is calculable and/or that it can be used to forecast the result of the GE .
BBC One News talking about the Omagh bombing, too long ago and too many people probably know too much I think.
449. Nick Palmer
While you’re there. Can you explain why nearly all your Nottinghamshire brothers and sisters are jumping ship or contemplating it. As I understand it only you, Motormouth Mann the other Unite Man and one other are not contemplating doing impersonations of rats?
Incidentally don’t you feel grubby allegedly accepting UNITE money? Especially given you have a communications allowance and are a top trougher you must be rolling in it anyway?
439 - The Govt’s embarrassing u-turn over the dog Tax is solely down to AndrewG.
“Knock, knock – I’m your Labour candidate – I’m here to kill Fido.”
The other thing you might notice about the Swingback Theory is that it independently forecast the result of the election before the eminent papers mentioned at 242 did so. And they agree very closely…
So if I’m wrong, I’ll be in very good company.
471 And he did a sterling job of taking them on - I was very surprised at the level of applause at the end - it certainly wasn’t ‘polite but we think you’re a w*nker’ more ‘that was lot better than I expected’.
Would love to see Gordon do one
473. Mark Senior: Swingback , it is self evident that an opposition party will do less well in the GE than it did in the byelections in the preceding parliament therefore swingback will occur .
Provided that the byelections are sufficiently representative of constituencies as a whole. This parliament’s byelections have failed that criterion, and it wasn’t close.
On sky news right now, you can see Susan Kramer and VInce Cable are outside downing street?
The Lib/Lab pact reforming?
A bit reminiscing. Who said this in 1997:
“I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future.” He said he was determined that the UK should not return to the “instability, speculation and negative equity” of the 1980s and 1990s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/politics97/budget97/live/housing.shtml
Hat-tip:
http://futurefairforall.org/
473. Mark Senior, I agree. How about that?
478, also, and I presume this is deliberate, Cameron’s looking like a presidential candidate in America. No tie, top button undone, shirt sleeves rolled up. It’s an interesting approach, though I personally prefer a chap in a suit and tie.
478 to describe a job as ’sterling’ is no longer a guarantee of a solid performance I’m afraid.
Why cannnot we have a proper government who can set out a coherent spending plan to reduce our debt? Its the least that shoudl be expected of a decent government imo
just as Gordon Brown staked his claim to the Labour party leadership, Mr Whelan re-surfaced again in 2007, this time as political director of Unite.
From this fairly innocuous sounding position, he managed to get himself copied into Damian McBride’s smear emails, be accused of bullying three members of his staff and brief against Alistair Darling at a press launch.
I would never go as far as calling Charlie Whelan an ‘aggressive hooligan’, ’serial killer’ or ‘killing machine’, - but then, civil servants and senior Labour figures have already said that.
I would not suggest he was a force from hell - but then, Alistair Darling has described him as that.
And I wouldn’t ever imply that he was ‘economical with the truth’ - but then, he himself had admitted that.
Now, you would have thought Prime Ministers with a moral compass, who “never engage in divisive and partisan politics”, who stand on the steps of Downing Street promising to “reach out beyond narrow party interest” would give figures like Charlie Whelan a particularly wide berth.
Unfortunately not, because today, Mr. Whelan is not just political director at Unite, he is working in Downing Street, masterminding Labour’s election campaign.
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/03/cash-gordon.html
473. Mark Senior. I too agree fully….
The Cash Gordon posters are going live on billboards within the next 48 hrs
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2010/03/michael-gove-lists-the-ways-in-which-labour-has-rewarded-its-union-paymasters.html
Bet Labour will regret all that stone throwing
476. If the Conservative Party want to employ my considerable talents, I’m available at a knock-down price.
Rosenfeld promised Kraft would keep Bristol factory for Cadbury opened, and shut it a week after they took control.
Is that a seat worth targeting?
Tells me all we need to know about British industry now being shut down ad nauseum by foreign busines which does not care two hoots.
Exchange rate for petrol also mentioned, but how to get the public engaged though. Clearly the pound being like toilet paper has had an effect.
483 - I thought you preferred ladies in school attire rather than chaps in suit and ties?
*** Anecdote Alert ***
Speaking to an apolitical friend in the US yesterday, he commented on a article he had read, which said that despite polls in the UK showing hung parliament, the bookies we showing Tory win…
Wonder where they got that idea from?
478. He’d get heckled from all of the 6 year olds and the teacher.
476 I wonder if the tory recovery in the polls is because of the dog tax proposals by Labour? Resonates more than Ashcroft or indeed gordon Brown bullying I would think to most people .
Could show the British are fed up with new taxes ,new insurances ,new forms to fill in just so labour can be seen to be doign something about a problem.
490, xenon, you bounder.
You know what I mean. Don’t make me slap you about the face with an enormo-haddock.
488 - Send your CV to Eric Pickles.
I’ll quite happily be a referee on your CV, confirming your astute political judgements.
Will Rod’s “unsinkable” theory hit an ice-berg?
407
Cheers.
I shall peruse them at leisure.
If it does sink, he’ll spin it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
498 was for Sunil @ 496
465 - The Pudsey campaign does indeed look very good. I only hear good things about them, and Stuart seems like a decent bloke.
I think they were in the top 3 last year in the Conservatives campaigning awards.
493. I’m not sure. But when “Tim” was saying the other day that a vote for Labour would mean Granny’s poodle would be put to sleep, I couldn’t see the policy catching on somehow…
494 - I know just teasing.
497. With all the young things coming into parliament next time there may be no MPs croaking it and hence no bye elections.
So we can confidently say that the result of the 2014 GE will be identical as the 2010 GE as swingback = 0% : place your bets accordingly
476 - “Knock, knock – I’m your Labour candidate – I’m here to kill Fido.”
- and as long as I’m here you may as well cough up the 20 grand you owe since Granny snuffed it.
481 jsfl - Give us a clue. Was it the same chap who said “we must never return to the unsustainable burdens of debt of the 80s and 90s”?
henrymacrory
Word has it that Hillary Benn’s tail is between his legs after Brown savaged his dog tax plan
473 - I want to agree with you, but if I do, I’m scared the world will end.
506.
466. You obviously weren’t around for the prior discussions on by-elections that took place here 2005-2008.
Dog Killing doesn’t go down well with the electorate.
I think Jeremy Thorpe will attest to that
502, ’tis a brave man or a fool who teases a morris dancer with a man cannon as big as mine.
506 - Perhaps we need a Dangerous Prime Ministers Act?
505. That’s the one - he is such a prophet (inverse of course) as our own Fitaloon recently pointed out:
http://diack.co.uk/fitaloon/2010/03/gordon-brown-knows-best-and-ignores-his-own-advice/
506. re dog laws - will these effect the pound ?
“Member of committee that awarded Lord Ashcroft peerage to give evidence”
“Lady Dean, one of three members of the scrutiny committee that agreed Ashcroft’s peerage in 2000, to give evidence to public administration select committee on Thursday”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/16/lord-ashcroft-peerage-inquiry
R4’s The World at One managed to avoid all reference to Unite.
512. Oh indeed we do. This one needs to be kept sedated and in isolation. i always thought this island might prove suitable!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruinard_Island
Here we go. Cheltenham
510 - Depends which dog. I’d have lent my vote to any candidate with the chutzpah to have taken a flame thrower to my ex-neighbour’s terrier.
515. Gabble
Are you a member of Unite?
Have you ever received any financial support from them?
Are they funding your infestation of this web site?
519 - Small dogs are the worst arent they?
516. Understandable really. Who in decent society would want to mention such organisations?
515 - Labour Peer engages with Labour Committee put-up-job shocker!
I hope everyone was on Peter’s long ante-post tip Menorah.
I was
520. jsfl: “Are they funding your infestation of this web site?”
Posts on this thread:
jsfl: 28
Gabble: 2 (including this one)
398. 400. 445. 450. The whole point about RodCrosby’s swingback theory is that you have to take all the by-elections in a parliament, and you can’t just pick-and-choose the ones which happen to have Con and Lab as the top two parties. Apart from the fact that there is a bigger sample if you count all 12 by-elections (not counting Glasgow North East and Haltemprice & Howden) rather than just two (Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North), presumably Rod has reasons for thinking that his theory works well if you take the net Con/Lab swing for all by-elections, regardless of other parties. The fact that the theory has worked reasonably well for most general elections since 1974 can’t be ignored or ridiculed just because you disagree with it. Having said that, my theory is that every general election changes things and gives surprises, and that the 2010 GE may be the one which damages RodCrosby’s theory by mucking up its track record of success.
462. What were the reasons?
525 - That’s not a denial.
Gabble refuses to deny he is funded by Unite.
Gabble have you had financial relations with this organisation, Miss Unite?
Talking abour new pollsters and datatables, has anyone seen Harris’ yet?
I’ve tried their website, but without luck.
I thought they were members of the BPC?
525. Yes I’ll admit I am a more hard working poster than you but I am certainly not funded by anyone…..
523 A Labour peer better known as Brenda Dean of SOGAT.
526 - Not suitable for a family site.
Well the first one was, I was like the titanic, i went down on the first date. Ahem.
The second one is definitely post lagershed
525. So Gobble answer the question.
Are you acting on behalf of, employed by, funded by UNITE…
Gabble = Whelan ?
487 there should also be some “Crash Gordon” posters.
Love the way they picture him in one of his ill fitting suits, hunched over, with his fat back on display.
515.7 weeks and 2 days to go, Labour seeks to fight on what ground? Foreign Affairs, War & Peace, The Economy….er no, the tax status of a tory peer….
“Tory candidate in airbrushing row”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/7455034/Tory-candidate-in-airbrushing-row.html
526. JohnLoony: The whole point about RodCrosby’s swingback theory is that you have to take all the by-elections in a parliament, and you can’t just pick-and-choose the ones which happen to have Con and Lab as the top two parties.
No, Rod’s point is that only Con and Lab count regardless of the constituency.
The problem with this parliament is that the byelections have been seriously unrepresentative with, for example, 5 out of 14 being in Scotland.
The fact remains that in this parliament, the only significant electoral failure by the Tories was Cheadle, and that was before Cameron. Ealing Southall was a failure of expectations management. I don’t think any significant election (that is to say, one we’d expect national tv coverage for) other than those could be categorised as a Tory failure, though I’m open to suggestions.
471. “I would hazard a guess that none of the audience had even the slightest interest in politics, have no intention of voting and only watch the news when one of their dodgy mates is killed following a high speed police chase.”
Do you get all your views from “Police, Camera, Action” or do you have other sources…Closer magazine maybe?
533, surely ones like this would work as well?:
http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Gordon+Brown+Makes+Visit+Afghanistan+mZDjey8rD8Ll.jpg
I hope everyone was on Peter’s long ante-post tip Menorah.
I was
by Lucian Fletcher March 16th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Oh yes
“No, Rod’s point is that only Con and Lab count regardless of the constituency.”
That’s most psephologists’ point - right back to the guy that invented swing, David Butler…
Good day so far. I’m on the Royal Challengers too.
What was everyone’s suggestion for the second? Somersby?
535 - hilarious. I’m looking forward to not a single Labour candidate having any form of work done on their literature or posters.
535. [YAWN]
Well at least some don’t need their hands held doing this ‘touch up’ stuff:
http://order-order.com/2008/04/06/from-mr-brown-to-mr-bean-to-mr-blobby/
“The health of the freed Lockerbie bomber has ‘greatly improved’ now he is home in Libya, Colonel Gaddafi’s son boasted yesterday.
He said Abdelbaset Ali Mohamed al-Megrahi was doing much better since being released seven months ago by the Scots on compassionate grounds because he had ‘only three months to live’.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1258176/Lockerbie-bomber-better-brags-Gaddafis-son–seven-months-terrorist-given-months-live.html
Who will set Britain’s economic policy under a tory government?
The EU or Moody’s?
Hey does anyone know whether there is a Brown watch site to see how many Labour MP’s use the Great Flunking Cyst’s picture on their campaign material?
“Nick_Clegg tells Radio 4 that Lib Dems won’t ring fence ANY departmental budgets, including NHS 21″
That isn’t what David Laws said the other night on Newsnight!
545 - Actually the tory economic will be set by Gordon Brown’s debt legacy
Oh FFS,
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown wrote to David Beckham after footballer ruptured achilles tendon”
541: Which proves it’s complelty usless to consider scottish seats in your model.
547 - It won’t be what Nick Clegg says in a few weeks either.
@545 - perhaps the IMF are going to set our policy no matter who comes in, now that Labour have muddied the water.
here is my on topic contribution: http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2010/03/petrol-price-home-truths-sickly-pound.html
The collapse of the Pound in a nice table so you can see the damage done. All other reasons you are reading elsewhere for the rise in petrol price, e.g. speculation, egregious behaviour by oil companies, are rubbish. It is the fall in Sterling.
547 Oracle - Another day, another LibDem U-turn.
We should start a book on how long it will be before Vince Cable pops up to say that they would ring-fence the NHS after all.
These from John Loony
“If it reaches £1.20 per litre, then it won’t be high enough. The impending global catastrophe caused by fossil fuel depletion (as well as climate change, desertification, mass migrations and wars) will lead to a mass extinction and the remnants of humanity being thrown back to the stone age, unless we are collectively serious enough to create a sustainable society with renewable energy.”
and
” Richard Tyndall I hope you had your tngue firmly in cheek when you wrote that. I know you are rightly proud of your lunacy but some things are just too silly to be taken in any way seriously.
No way José. It’s serious. It’s really, really serious. FWIW, I think we’re in the middle of another mass extinction episode and I think it’s already too late.”
My comment: Yes. You can run from the laws of physics, but you cannot hide.
547 - don’t worry, next week Clegg will be talking about ’savage ringfencing’.
549. I know that’s Beckham’s career finished…..
[447] - “Where’s the Swingback guys?”
here…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
Rod, could you make that plot again with both axes to the same scale?
By fitting to a landscape A4 size, you compress the vertical axis, reducing the deviation from the result predicted by the theory. Also it would be great to have the 2010 by-election swing plotted with some sort of uncertainty range for the predicted GE swing.
547, Lib Dems facing both ways, again. The media should bollock them over it, but doubt it’ll happen.
550. Glasgow East was the Tories’ third best result overall since 2005.
You don’t want me to consider it?
muppet…
547. And there’s more:
He went on to warn of “major social, economic and industrial disruption” if a coherent plan to bring down the deficit was not put in place.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6673/lib_dems_will_ringfence_no_departmental_budgets_clegg.html
Oh well that’s the Libdems screwed then. Libdems coherent - give me a break….
546. Lab candidate in Bristol West has a very small pic of Brown - (passport size and no larger) on his latest pamphlet
515 That will be the ex Trade Union General Secretary then I suppose. We get the drift about the so called House of Lords committee which imposed the restrictions on Lord Ashcroft’s membership
Chairman Lord Thomson, ex Labour MP later a LibDem peer
Member Lady Dean, ex Trade Union General Secretary
were there any Tories on the committee?
557. OK, I’ll have a go at improving the graph. The “uncertainty” is around the +/-1% mark.
391. Have you any evidence of some sort of BoE or concerted action beyond the timing? BoE would presumeably have to announce at some point if it was them and it’s quite hard to see any group of banks getting together of their own accord.
538 nah, this version’s worse.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235853/QUENTIN-LETTS-The-Labour-benches-car-park-broken-dreams.html
561 - That’s useful information: I won’t put any more money on Labour in Bristol West then.
559: You’re the muppet to think that Glasgow East has any say in predicting what happens in hundreds of English constituanies two years later.
Oh yes that 2,135 move to 1,639 clearly tells a lot, just ignore the SNP impact on the campaign in its entirity along with everything else.
Yet again, the Conservative Party shows that it is driven by a dislike/contempt for so many of the people that live in this country. It’s why I just could never consider voting for them.
In targeting the unions for political capital, what they are actually doing is attacking the millions of people who are members of trade unions. The people who have sacrificed pay rises, taken unpaid leave, gone part-time and done so much else to keep the companies that they work in going. They, we are all being told, are a problem.
Of course, it is completely unsurprising. We all remember the roars of laughter at Tory conferences as Peter Lilley and others lambasted, laughed at and demonised single mothers and other vulnerable people. But it is no less sickening for all that.
“We’re all in this together.” I don’t think so. Same old Tories. Why do they even bother pretending they have changed?
568 - and lo, the transformation into BenM is complete.
569 - Well, if BenM thinks that he is correct.
Second. Not bad.
568 – Southam, stop being a t1t – no political party should be so in the pockets of an organisation that it can dictate Govt policy to the n’th degree.
Your twisted interpretation says more about you I’m afraid.
568.Your getting worse, I think it’s reached a point were you are simply saying things for effect, get yourself a few friends.
“We all remember the roars of laughter at Tory conferences as Peter Lilley and others lambasted, laughed at and demonised single ”
I don’t.
I remember Labour doing nothing for British workers over the last 13years though - despite taking the Unions coin.
And this is why Unions should not have central control of political contributions:
66% of Unite members would not vote Labour if a General Election was called today
http://dailyreferendum.blogspot.com/2010/03/unite-donates-to-labour-against-wishes.html
Poll is here - page 5
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-160309-Unite-Poll-of-Unite-Members.pdf
By my reckoning given what they have given to Labour in funds alone (how much else in kind?) Unite should be donating another £22 million with 10 million or so going to the Conservatives…
568 What have you done with the real Southam Observer?
464: there are two separate critcisms that have been made here of YouGov. One is that their 2005 weightings might be wrong, and as you say that’s a longstanding issue that has applied ever sincem 2005 (inculding when they showed huge Tory leads). However, the recent criticism, which has occupied several whole threads and leading articles by Mike, was that it was odd that they weren’t getting enough responses from former Labour voters, and were mistakenly assuming that the ones they got were typical. The suggestion was that if they got a big unweighted response from past Labour voters it would show a different result, much less favourable to Labour. That doesn’t - on the basis of Monday’s poll - seem to be the case.
On your other post at 475 - no, I’m glad Unite contributes to my constituency party (not to me personally, by the way). The Labour Party has always depended on union funding to compensate for its supporters on average having lower incomes than the Tories. If you disapprove, it might lower your certainty of voting Labour, but my impression is that this wasn’t very high anyway?
I only know of two Notts MPs standing down. Paddy Tipping has had a heart attack. Alan Simpson wants to concentrate on green campaigning outside Parliament. I can’t remember if Alan Meale is standing down, but I don’t think Graham Allen or John Mann or Vernon Coaker are and I’m certainly not. I’ve seen the rumour about John Heppell doing so but I don’t know if it’s correct.
571. Money back in the e/w I guess..
568. Southam see 575. Even two thirds of UNITE union members don’t support Labour!
Clegg and social unrest..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8570196.stm
575 - year old poll
Mmm, Brown told what to do by his paymasters.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/call-us-‘deplorable’%2c-union-orders-brown-201003152559/
580:’Nick Clegg has warned of the risk of social unrest in the UK if a future government seeks to cut public spending without popular support’
Yes Nick, thats why we have this thing called ‘an election’.
572:
It’s get-the-unions-day in the CCHQ planning grid and it won’t be the last day that Labour’s dependence on union money is in party strategists’ cross-hairs.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2010/03/michael-gove-lists-the-ways-in-which-labour-has-rewarded-its-union-paymasters.html
The trades unions are all democratic organisations and no-one is forced to join them. Trade nionists up and down this country have made considerable sacrifices over the last two years and now they are being demonised. It’s what the Tories do best.
578 - Slightly better than that. Some value in Betfair. I also had half a point on the winner but I didn’t want to blow my trumpet
584.
“The trades unions are all democratic organisations”
What share of the vote did Charlie Whelan get when he was elected “politcal director” of UNITE ?
“Which is scarier? One rich businessman who doesn’t pay tax to UK economy or millions of working people giving £3 each?”
Whelan continues to tweet away - he can’t help himself. Do his comments refer to one of Labour’s millionaire donors?
575.Why would UNITE give money to the tories? Labour would never impose a pay freeze on the public sector after an election, PFI, part-privatise the public services, impose tuition fees, impose a target-culture in the public services….
Well for all these millions what did they get back???
Ah…Union Modernisation fund…Out of one pocket, into another…
584 - Yes, they’ve made real sacrifices recently.
Derek Simpson, joint general secretary of the country’s biggest union, Unite, yesterday defended his stay in a £399-a-night suite at the Waldorf, one of London’s most luxurious hotels, for a four-day union executive meeting.
Simpson is well known for attacking bankers for their “g0ld-plated pens1ons, g0lden handshakes and huge rewards for failure”.
The union leader was accused by the Mail on Sunday of staying at the hotel when he was within a 35-minute commute of his £800,000 home in Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire, provided by Unite.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/02/derek-simpson-waldorf-hotel-unite
586 - He was appointed by elected officials, rather like Lord Ashcroft was appointed Tory deputy chaiirman of the Conservative Party by an elected leader.
guidofawkes
RT @eyespymp “I’ll get this Sarah, you got me the Privy Councillorship” Sarah Brown lunching with Lord Swraj Paul in Locanda Locatelli.
Funny @sarahbrown10 isn’t tweeting about her lunch with Lord Paul today, she tweets about everything else.
584 - Yes, they’ve made real sacrifices recently.
Derek Simpson, joint general secretary of the country’s biggest union, Unite, yesterday defended his stay in a £399-a-night su1te at the Waldorf, one of London’s most luxurious hotels, for a four-day union executive meeting.
Simpson is well known for attacking bankers for their “g0ld-plated pens1ons, g0lden handshakes and huge rewards for failure”.
The union leader was accused by the Mail on Sunday of staying at the hotel when he was within a 35-minute commute of his £800,000 home in Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire, provided by Unite.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/02/derek-simpson-waldorf-hotel-unite
584 - Yes, they’ve made real sacrifices recently.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/02/derek-simpson-waldorf-hotel-unite
570 SO no he is’nt..I worked as a convener for one massive union and the chat in the smoke filled rooms over copious quantities of booze was how to bring that particular company that we were dealing with “down” Simple as that.. I left and will not have a union anywhere near me or my business..
[575] - Some Unions have unaffiliated from the Labour party; the link is not set in stone.
Why doesn’t the Conservative party try to organise in the Unions and have some of the political levy donated to them? If they can win enough support in a few union branches they could have a motion submitted to the conference of whatever Union to debate the matter…
589. Does he take the same salary as Ashcroft ?
Obamacare now at 78 on Intrade…
584 - Yes, they’ve made real sacrifices recently.
http://tinyurl.com/HangAllTradeUnionLeaders
591 - That is entirely your choice. But that does not make all trade unionists bad people who should be demonised for political capital. Unfortunately, though, it is what the Tories do best.
584. Should the Conservatives not be able to criticise the Unions? Unite is overtly campaigning for the Labour Party as well as giving a very large amount of money exclusively to a political party which only a minority of members support. These are executive decisions taken by the Unions leadership not by its members.
We *know* that Labour’s bashing of Ashcroft has had bugger all impact on who’s going to vote for who. The responses to questions say meh…
The linking of UNITE’s influence to Labour - especially given what their own Gen Sec said is quite another matter given the strikes that are now getting a load of coverage.
Labour were very silly to get into this row for what has changed very few if any minds in their favour.
596. Do the Union leaders not demonise the Tories for political capital?
595 - There are millions of trade unionists in this country. So many have them have made significant sacrifices.
596
596. Could you post the link where a tory spokeman has said “all trades unionists are bad” Or are you just making it up?
596
596
596
598 - So let’s demonise millions of ordinary British citizens. That is indeed the Tory way.
584 Southam The trades unions are all democratic organisations and no-one is forced to join them.
I’m delighted to see that you recognise Maggie Thatcher’s massive achievement in that respect, Southam. As you’ll know, Labour campaigned viciously against her reforms that made the unions democratic and outlawed the odious closed shop.
575. Nick Palmer.
Your appreciation of the issue then is not what it perhaps should be because the weighting issue and the lack of labour contributors are linked because in all cases it relates to a shortage of contributors from one or other party. It works on a pendulum effect if there are too few Conservatives (and that is because fewer people in general are identifying as Conservatives in comparison to Yougov’s weightings) then the weightings will potentially favour the Conservatives. Similarly, the same is true if any of the other parties samples whilst reflecting the actual mood of the nation are at variance with the weighting. The more they vary, the more they compensate and potentially skew the poll.
Basically that is the problem with Party ID. Because the way people identify with parties is fluid and always open to change unless the weightings are verified on a regular basis there will always be the potential for them to become inaccurate and out of date. There has been no confirmation from Yougov that there Party ID weightings have been verified for a considerable time.
On the second point. So you approve of taking money from a Union who I believe doesn’t donate to any other establishment party (as fart as I know) even though only 34% of their membership support Labour? Hardly fair in my book but there again ‘fairness’ is not something normally associated with the actions of the Labour Party.
On the last point I’ll take your word for it. I’d just read that 5 out of 8 MP’s were either contemplating going or already had announced they were leaving. Perhaps its the fine line between Nottingham City and Nottinghamshire. I notice you didn’t mention Hoon, Ashfield and the parachuting in of a bit of TV totty….
440.
“He’s a toad that does politics no good”
likely to jump ship any momemnt to the official Tories then?
596 Sorry for that mltiple..comp is on the blink SO IT WEAKENS YOUR CASE..
596 Southam Observer, are you currently or have you ever been a member of, or worked for a trade union? (FYI I was, but am no longer a union member)
Time for a new thread?
(as fart as I know) = as far as I know
ROFLMAO
608 “(as fart as I know)”
Typo of the Day
605 - The implication is clear. Unions are bad.
Anyone know any trade union leaders that are particularly short? I want to see if I can make Southam’s head explode.
612 - Good to see you back James
588. Chris_g00
Calm down. I was being fascetious. Personally all I want to see is the end of centrally controlled union donations and Unions being used to launder Government money that they want to use for party purposes (such as that call centre facility). Individual union members can give to who they wish.
617 - Just been posting anonymously.
577 What about Geoff Hoon? Or is he airbrushed from labour history now?
615.So the answer is no, you can’t find a single article when a tory spokesman says all trades unionists are bad. Good. Now that’s sorted.
Now for your point about tories demonising all trades unionists, may I, as a member of a trades union humbly thankyou for speaking up on my behalf. I hadn’t realised the tories were demonising me, thankyou for pointing it out, do you have a link to your claim, or is it just your prejudice coming through again, in which case…
520 - Hoon is never airbrushed, merely buffed up.
516. On a diet of fags and dripping and working down th’ pit 24/7 I’d be amazed if any were over 5ft 2.
On Scargills KGB file they had him down as 4ft 11.
Browing the BPC website, I found this article by Nick Sparrow, written back in 2005 about the challenge facing pollsters next time around. this bit stood out for me
An increasing number of voters either do not vote at all or do so sporadically. The accuracy of polls in future may depend not only on determining party support, but also working out which voters are actually going to bother to register their preferences on a ballot form.
The fact that polls have overstated Labour’s advantage in recent years may simply reflect that a greater percentage of people support Labour than are prepared to vote for them in elections.
Many people who did not vote in 2005 decided their vote was not needed because Labour looked set to win comfortably and a large proportion would have supported Labour if they had bothered to vote
in 2005.
In part at least, this may account for the apparent Labour bias in most polls. It therefore remains possible that the bias will reduce further or disappear altogether at the next election if the contest looks to be more closely contested.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/nick-sparrow.pdf
Yes, where is the new thread? Someone better check on Mike… perhaps he’s fallen and he can’t get up.
581. Year old donations too…..
618.If your read my post you’ll see I was agreeing with you, despite Labour betraying (as the unions would see it) their own people by imposing PFI, tuition fees, targets etc, they never thhe less continue pumping money into the party. One possible explanation for this is the government is in effect paying them back with the Union Modernisation Fund. Money laundering by another name.
615: No, unions which use strikes as a weapon of fear and bullying are bad.
624: No! we want to get to 1000 and break the server!! power to the posters!
Unions shouldn’t bankroll politicians
Question for OGH have any plans been made for this site on GE night? I can see the servers crashing unless some sort of restriction in posting is introduced.
SO, you do know that people who post on here aren’t the Tory party don’t you?
At best there are a few tory party members and their opinions don’t necessarily match the entire membership of the tory party.
So why you continue to use a specific post from an individual poster of unknown provenance as if it portrays the thoughts and beliefs of the entire tory party is beyond me.
We once had a 1000 plus thread
I think its far easier to defend unions giving MP’s constituency parties money which Nick Plamer does above than this government giving unions money through the Union Modernisation Fund. Thats the bit that seems undemocratic to me .
I’d agree with SO that ordinary union members should not be targeted in the Tory campaign.
The focus should be entirely on the bosses and Whelan and their standing in the way of reform that would improve public services. I also wonder if there is still more on Whelan from Drapers emails and if that is what this is leading up to.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/tories-must-abolish-union-modernisation.html
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/tories-must-abolish-union-modernisation.html
ANd on this I thoroughly agree with Mr Dale. We must stop Labour laundering Taxpayers money through the Trade Unions.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/tories-must-abolish-union-modernisation.html
637 Snap!
626 Chris - In which case apologise for the misunderstanding. I misread it in my haste!
537 Cameron should ask tomorrow if the union Modernisation Fund will be cut as part of the spending review or is it ring fenced?
640 What a *good* question that’d be
639. Seems Mr Dale agrees with my post at 588 also. He’s very quick!
Falling pound affects our oil prices which affects our production costs and of course the falling pound affects our materials costs - so the nett effect of the falling pound on our ability to export is limited. hence horrible trade figures in january and there was a horrible set of manufacturing figures as well.
I gather the falling pound makes bankers and other such barrow boy traders etc paid in dollars very happy. Well done again Gordon eh?
Germany managed quite nicely with a strong currency for years.
Without the Unions we would not have had Workers’ Rights or the minimum wage. We would all be in thrall to the boss without any recourse to law.
The Tolpuddle Martyrs were transported for forming an early union in order to fight poverty wages. Unions are good things and they exist to protect workers against the excessive demands of management.
W. Walsh is not known for his diplomatic skills, he has got to his position by riding roughshod over people. His employees must have a strong grievance otherwise they would not have passed the vote to strike in such an emphatic manner.
NEW THREAD
635,6,7 - the CCHQ email came in and was actioned at the same time?
New thread up.
‘Is this the killer question’
633. If its is the Union membership who have agreed that that money should go to that MP I would fully agree.
On the other hand, if it is some elitist claque of union leaders and MPs who just divvy up a share of the Union membership dues after a bout a backroom mutual back scratching and bartering then to me it is just as bad as funding a party nationally when large numbers of the memebership don’t support that party.
543 yes the ‘brothers’ must be proud of the fact that they will divert business away from the highest wage paying airline to more lower wage paying ones by this strike
543. Without the unions we might have state owned airlines and telecoms services - thank the lord for the unions
Well we could all drive a bit slower. If the increase does not worry you, or you can claim the costs back I expect you will continue to drive at 70+, but by reducing your speed to 60 max you could reduce your costs.
Driving 60 miles @ 60 mph takes 60 mins. Driving @ 70 mph takes 50 mins.
So it is up to you if money or time counts.
Without the unions we might have state owned airlines and telecoms services - thank the lord for the unions
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman March 16th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
A much better point then you might imagine.
Have you ever considered that The Trades Union Movement has long since existed to serve ONLY the interests of large multinational corporations rather then their members, or ever the needs of the public as a whole? If not then please consider a lot more carefully.
The Soviet Union was from its very beginning, as Russia still is today. Which is a corporatist conspiracy created and financed by the owners of the worlds banking system.
For many years the proverbial THEY filtered finance through their very own USSR to promote industrial unrest in western democracies. Ultimately and deliberately causing thousands of small privately owned service and manufacturing businesses to first go bust, secondly be nationalised and then thirdly privatised.
The tax payer therefore financed the creation of massive monopolies, by borrowing money at interest from the owners of the worlds banking system. Then after the trades unions had done their Scagilist worst, the tax payers were then forced/persuaded to virtually give them all away for next to nothing to private corporations. Privately owned multi-national conglomerates that borrowed the purchase price from the exact same owners of the worlds banking system at even higher rates of interest.
A great scam, which we ALL fell for hook line, and sinker.
Secretive cartels or straight forward monopolies are bad for everyone except a very small amount of people who ultimately own them. Westernised party politics being an example of the former, Stalinist Russia being an example of the later.
Of course people like Orwell worked this scam out a very long time ago. This was the true message behind Animal Farm. But did we listen, or more to the point did we truly understand?
Did we f..k.