Do people switch during polling interviews? I am grateful to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report for picking up this oddity in the Ipsos-Mori poll. As can be seen two questions were asked – “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” and a second “And how would you vote if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?” For the former the widely reported headline figures had a 7% Labour lead. For the latter the…
What happened when Wilson went early with a 7% lead If there is one past general election that might worry Gordon it is 1970. Harold Wilson, the prime minister, did not have to go in the June and could easily have waited until the following year. Bob Worcester, the Mori founder who was our guest this morning, has noted that when Wilson decided to go Labour had a lead of poll lead of 7%. Wilson decided to take the gamble…
Welcome to our guest – Sir Robert Worcester The big news this morning is the latest poll from Mori – the firm that was set up by Bob Worcester – is showing a Labour lead of 7%. Ipsos-Mori as it is now known has been polling in the UK for longer than anybody else and has by far and away the best web-site. Bob himself is a frequent commentator and has detailed knowledge of UK politics and opinion trends going…
Two new polls show big Tory deficits Above are two of the front pages from the Sunday papers at the start of what could be a historic week in British politics. Is Gord going to take the plunge? Can the Tories turn their desperate polling position round? The main Ipsos-Mori poll for the month is out and in the Observer. This shows the following shares with comparisons on the last Mori survey a week and a half ago – CON…
Bob Worcester: The founder of Mori and one of the most pre-eminent people in the UK polling industry, Sir Robert Worcester will be joining us for an hour or so tomorrow to discuss, amongst other things, the latest Ipsos-Mori poll – due out in the Observer in the morning. I am hoping that Bob’s appearance will start a new feature on PBC when leading figures in the polling industry can talk about how they see things going. Comment publishing arrangements….
Two polls give Labour doubt digit leads Back in May and June I was among a number of commentators who were saying that we would really have to wait until November before we would get a clear view of how the new leadership at Number 10 had changed the political environment. Well it is looking as though that November suggestion might be when the general election itself takes place. The polls have moved so firmly and decisively in Labour’s favour…
Can Cameron turn it round? Like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, and Michael Howard in 2004, David Cameron goes to the Conservative conference in a desperate position. Labour has an opinion poll lead that would give it an increased majority, were it to be repeated in a general election, and there are certainly some members of his party who would love nothing more than an outbreak of civil war at the party conference. Many senior figures in the Labour party…
Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%? One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election. This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new…